Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Training camps provide our first look into NFL players and teams as we prepare for the upcoming fantasy football season. Information will now begin to flood our social media timelines, leaving us to determine the subsequent fantasy impact. It’s a matter of knowing which information matters, and which should be ignored.
So each day in this space, we’ll take a trip through the top news and takeaways around the league’s training camps to offer up what fantasy managers need to know as we head through draft season and into the 2023 NFL regular season.
Today, let’s review the major news from Thursday, Aug. 3, which includes our first game action of the season.
Hall of Fame Game Recap
There aren’t a ton of takeaways from the first game of the 2023 preseason. We did see the Cleveland Browns obviously rest Nick Chubb, but it was at least a bit interesting to see backup running back Jerome Ford also get the day off. As for the players who suited up, Jets rookie running back Israel Abanikanda carried the ball nine times for 27 yards and a touchdown in his NFL debut. Meanwhile, rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson impressed for the Browns, completing 8-of-11 passes for 82 yards and a touchdown, while adding 36 rushing yards on six attempts.
The James Cook Hype Grows
There have been plenty of players being hyped up during training camp, but perhaps none has been talked about more than James Cook. The sophomore running back has been dazzling so far in Bills training camp, especially in the passing game. Damien Harris did see more first-team snaps than usual the other day, but it sounds like the Bills are making a serious effort to involve Cook in the passing game, whether lined up out wide or on designed screens. An uptick in screen passes would be huge for both Cook and quarterback Josh Allen. According to FTN Data, screens made up just 5.5% of Allen’s targeted routes last year, the fourth-lowest rate in football. And over the past two seasons, Allen has ranked 31st and 33rd among qualified signal callers in yards after the catch per completion (4.3, 4.4). Ken Dorsey has to scheme more layups for Allen, and it sounds like that is going to be more passes to James Cook.
Javonte Williams to See Preseason Action
Despite coming off an ACL and MCL tear, Javonte Williams is expected to play during the preseason. Broncos head coach Sean Payton told reporters that it might start in Week 2 of the preseason. News out of Denver suggested that Williams wasn’t even being limited in practice, which is both shocking and exciting. It still doesn’t guarantee that Williams is going to see a huge workload, especially out of the gate this season. Dating back to college, Williams has always been part of a two-headed backfield, while Payton’s offenses have featured multiple running backs. In fact, 2016-2020, the New Orleans Saints No. 2 running back averaged a healthy 173 touches per season.
Zach Charbonnet (Shoulder) Practices Thursday
This was relatively surprising. It was initially reported Zach Charbonnet would be “out indefinitely” with a shoulder injury, but the rookie running back was out there Thursday. His presence is a very good sign that the issue won’t keep him sidelined for Seattle’s Week 1 game. Charbonnet could limit Kenneth Walker’s playing time, especially on passing downs. During his first season at the NFL level, Walker sported just a 16% target per route run rate, which was the eighth-lowest mark among running backs with at least 20 targets last season. Charbonnet, meanwhile, is a very smooth pass-catching running back, hauling in 37-of-44 targets for UCLA last year. And with third-down running back Travis Homer in Chicago, Charbonnet likely plays on third downs early and often, which caps the upside of Walker. Per FTN Data, Walker played just 57 third downs during his rookie year, good for 28.4% of Seattle’s third downs. That rate ranked 45th among running backs. Charbonnet could immediately take third downs away from Walker, but Carroll also recently stated that he and Walker would compete for lead running back duties.
Justyn Ross Continues to Impress
Justyn Ross has been working out with Patrick Mahomes since before training camp, but the former Clemson wideout keeps turning heads at practice. Ross has had his NFL career derailed by injuries but now healthy, he has an outstanding opportunity in a shallow Kansas City wide receiver room. With Kadarius Toney sidelined, Ross is already seeing an uptick in reps, especially with the first-team offense. He needs to be added in all dynasty leagues if he’s still available, and in deep redraft leagues, Ross might be worth a look.
