Week 14 DVOA NFL Picks
Aaron Schatz
One of the most popular mid-stakes national fantasy football contests out there is NFFC’s RotoWire Online Championship. The high-stakes version ($1,750 entry fee) is the NFFC Primetime. They are 12-team redraft leagues that utilize PPR scoring and a couple other unique features: third-round reversal and KDS.
Third-round reversal simply changes the direction of the snake draft after the second round (person picking 1.01/2.12 gets 3.12 instead of 3.01). KDS stands for Kentucky Derby Style, and it’s a pre-draft slot preference tool where you can select what slot you prefer to draft out of. These two features are why NFFC is my favorite fantasy football platform.
The Basics
The entry fee for the NFFC OC is $350. They pay out prizes to the top two in the league at the end of the regular season — $1,500 to first, $700 to second. The grand prize for the overall winner is a whopping $250,000 as well as substantial prize money to the next 45 overall. There is also a $5,000 grand prize for the playoff consolation bracket that pays out to the top 15 in that field as well.
The overall standings are determined by taking your average team point total from the regular season (Weeks 1-14) and adding your point totals from Weeks 15, 16 and 17. Having your team heat up in those final weeks is crucial to finishing well in those overall standings and taking down some large prizes.
To win the overall in a field of 4,500-5,000 requires a mix of skill, good fortune and some excellent timing. Back in Week 16 of 2016, I made a costly mistake benching Adam Thielen’s 44.6 PPR points (12-202-2) for DeSean Jackson. I finished fourth overall in the OC, but that one lineup decision was quite the costly one, benching a wideout who was synonymous with fantasy playoff dominance for a few seasons to come. I nailed my draft that year simply locking in my first-, second- and fifth-round picks (David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott, Melvin Gordon) at RB-RB-Flex every week and utilizing weekly FAAB to pick up some valuable wideouts along the way.
The key players and intricacies of lineup construction in NFFC OCs change from year to year but there are consistent themes that ring true each season. At a macro level, this involves the following:
- Identifying breakout players who are undervalued/mispriced by the market/ADP
- Identifying players from overlooked offenses who end up breaking out
- Targeting high upside skill position players in the back-half of draft
- Optimally streaming DST and TK (team kickers) based on weekly schedule/matchups
With such a large payout for first overall, the way to treat the OC is akin to how we attack large-field GPP contests in DFS. We’re looking to avoid the early round landmines, get lucky avoiding players who sustain long-term injuries and draft/FAAB players we expect to have peak results and positive outlier seasons.
I’ll cover several specific strategies to employ in both NFFC OCs and the Primetimes, but this first one covers the all-important topic of optimizing KDS.
KDS – Kentucky Derby Style
Here is an example of KDS I set for an OC draft in mid-July. I moved 4 up behind 1 intentionally since I valued Ja’Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp and Christian McCaffrey (the consensus 2-3-4 picks) evenly and preferred to have an earlier second-round pick.
I usually set my KDS preferred draft order as soon as I sign up for a league in case the league fills and KDS runs when I’m unavailable. KDS is computer automated/random draw (I still call it “out of a hat”) and KDS typically runs 60 minutes after all 12 managers have registered for a league. Upon results, you’ll see that you received your most preferred first-round draft choice based on what choices were available after those who had higher priority received theirs. In this case, I drew sixth priority of draft choice out of the hat yet still landed on pick 4, my second-highest choice.
For this league, I set KDS preference with the following plan of thought process at each possible draw:
1.01 – Get Justin Jefferson as my cornerstone, then make sure to get my RB1 and my WR2 within the next four picks (2.24, 3.36, 4.37). If a top-three QB fell at 2.24, I’d take them. This plan would involve no top-tier TEs since Travis Kelce goes mid-first and no Mark Andrews since it’s unlikely he makes it to 3.36. This Jefferson build would mean waiting until after Round 6 for guys like Kyle Pitts, Darren Waller or Dallas Goedert.
1.04 – As previously mentioned, a fourth pick would essentially lock me into Kupp or McCaffrey — either of whom I’d be happy to take. But they’d likely take me in different directions in the next few rounds. Starting with CMC would mean having to hit the WRs hard immediately after and likely waiting for my QB1 until the Justin Fields/Justin Herbert/Trevor Lawrence range. What made my path easy in this draft is by taking Kupp 1.04 then Tee Higgins 2.24 (two WRs), I knew I’d be focused on a second-tier RB and would likely wait on QB and TE.
1.02/1.03 – Similar to what I would plan for 1.04, but I’d be starting off with Ja’Marr Chase.
1.11/1.12/1.10 – The back end is still a warm and comfortable pool to swim in for those who are well-researched. I’ll get into more details on this soon, but essentially, I’d be considering a bevy of top-flight, first-read, stud wideouts or a top-five projected running back with those back-to-back picks. I prefer the 1.11 to a 1.12 every year because I don’t mind playing that game of Draft Chicken when I can forecast who the person at the turn is going to take and make my pick before him strategically knowing I get two of the next four picks.
Note that since many either forget to set their KDS or just leave it as ‘Straight Buttah’ (1-12), that first overall pick is usually the toughest one to draw. You’d have a much higher chance of drawing fourth or eighth overall since those are likely less coveted and set as first choice in one’s KDS. But this changes year to year and is player pool and market dependent.
KDS preferences should be set based on our research and personal preference. It changes year to year and must be based on the player pool layout, our preferred early-round targets, and tier dropoff analysis. For the last several years, I’ve preferred a first-round pick in the back-third of the draft because I was comfortable with the players there and preferred an early third-round pick to a late third-rounder.
Most importantly, we should be projecting and “mapping out” what our team might look like after the first five (even 10) rounds, based on assumptions of current market prices (ADP) and our personal interests.
Remember, with third-round reversal, the dynamics are shifted to balance out teams who have a late first-round selection with those who have an early one. Here is what our first five picks might look like picking from the 1-slot versus the 12-slot.
Without getting into too much detail with the specific builds above, consider where your personal tier/talent dropoff in those first three rounds. Remember, a 12-pick will land you three of the top-25 overall. So, if you value players in the 23-28 overall ADP range (Derrick Henry, Chris Olave, Tee Higgins, DeVonta Smith) similarly to players in the 34-40 range (Jahmyr Gibbs, Rhamondre Stevenson, Amari Cooper, Deebo Samuel), then perhaps starting with Justin Jefferson at 1.01 and getting four picks in the top-40 range best suits you. If you like the idea of two players at the 1-2 turn (CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Davante Adams, Nick Chubb, Saquon Barkley) and value targets available at the 2-3 turn highly, then perhaps the back end suits you better.
Part of this analysis is to consider whether we want a top-six QB or comfortable waiting for the Trevor Lawrence/Justin Fields tier or even beyond that. A 1.12-1.13 is too early to take Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts but there’s a slight possibility one of them is available with your third pick, 3.25. Remember that the options are similar for a 1.01’s second-round pick (2.24) and a 1.12’s third-round pick (3.25). To summarize: A 1.01 gets you four picks in the first 37 while a 1.12 gets you three in the top 25. There are, of course, 10 other draft slots to consider.
Using ADP and Segmenting Draft Zones
Here’s a look at ADP (draft board style) specifically for the NFFC OC over the last 10 days:
To figure out your preferred draft zone (early, middle or late), you can vertically break the board into three distinct chunks (Teams 1-4, Teams 5-8, Teams 9-12) and assess the mix of players most likely available to you depending on where you’re drafting from. Some of the positional factors in play when assessing our preferred range:
- Which QB1s we’re comfortable with
- Our TE strategy (Kelce, Andrews, Hockenson, mid-range or punt)
- How many WR we want in those first five rounds
- Where to draft our RB2
There can be influence beyond the first five rounds (top-60 overall) especially if we have identified RB2 and RB3 candidates for our roster who we believe are underpriced and can significantly out-earn their current market prices.
Our KDS preferences may be innately, heavily predicated on who our first-round pick might be, but it’s important to stretch out our view over the first set of four or five picks to make the ideal determination. If we’re equally content with a fi