Fantasy Faceoff: Davante Adams vs. Julio Jones

Each week, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe step into the octagon to exchange blows over some of the biggest draft-day dilemmas this fantasy football season. Today's Fantasy Faceoff topic: Davante Adams or Julio Jones? … Ready. Set. FIGHT!

In favor of Davante Adams (Jeff Ratcliffe)

Last season didn’t exactly get off to a good start for Adams owners, as the Packers wideout stumbled out of the gate and sat a lowly 46th among wideouts in fantasy scoring over the first three weeks. He rebounded in Week 4, only to suffer a toe injury that would cost him a month of play.

But just when many had written Adams off, he got back on the field and was a dominant force down the stretch. Over the final eight weeks of the season, only Michael Thomas averaged more fantasy points per game. And much to the chagrin of Packers fans, Green Bay did not address wide receiver in the draft, so Adams has essentially no competition for targets this season.

That volume is a key reason I have Adams as the clear No. 2 wideout in fantasy drafts regardless of your scoring format. Julio Jones is going to see plenty of targets in Atlanta. Unlike Adams, though, he does have a pretty good No. 2 on the field along with him in Calvin Ridley. Whoever ends up being the No. 2 receiver in Green Bay won’t even be able to hold a candle to Ridley.

But it isn’t necessarily the targets that separate Adams from Jones and the rest of the pack. It’s more a matter of ceiling. Jones is fantastic at football, but in his nine years in the league, he’s only topped double-digit touchdowns once. And that came all the way back in 2012. Meanwhile, Adams has done it three times in six seasons. Adams is also averaging a full touchdown more per season than Jones. That touchdown upside is the true difference maker here.

In favor of Julio Jones (Brad Evans)

For one of the most naturally talented wide receivers of his generation, Jones’ lack of double-digit TD seasons is completely inexplicable. Equipped with all the characteristics needed to construct the perfect wideout — size, speed, route-running smarts, athleticism — he has reached 10 scores only once. It’s frustrating. It’s ridiculous. It’s baffling. Over the past six seasons, he landed inside the top-20 in red-zone target percentage twice (2018 and 2017). Last fall, he attracted 20.8% of those looks, which was good for WR51, one spot behind future “Hall of Famer” DaeSean Hamilton. To use a classic movie analogy, Julio is Cameron’s dad’s Ferrari 250 GT Spyder from Ferris Bueller. How can you leave him parked in the garage?!

But the receiver’s engine is about to rev. With Austin Hooper, who accounted for 18 red-zone targets (9 end-zone) in 13 games last season, now a member of the Cleveland Browns, it’s conceivable Jones, for once, won’t be grossly underutilized near the goal line. Hayden Hurst will slide into that role and Calvin Ridley is sure to play a major part, but maybe, just maybe, the world-class weapon will be maximized to his fullest. 

Featuring one of the highest floors in the virtual game, the target hog (25.7% target percentage in ’19), the centerpiece of an offense that attempted over 41 pass attempts per game last season, is set to exceed 80 receptions, 1,350 receiving yards and reach the 10-TD line this fall. If Julio meets those expectations, he’ll challenge Michael Thomas for top honors at the position, which makes him a wise buy at his 16.5 ADP (WR5)

Sorry, Adams buyers, Atlanta’s Don Julio will pack more buzz.