Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to FAAB Whisperer – my weekly free agent bidding and waivers projection column. You may use these FAAB projections in conjunction with Nelson Sousa’s FAAB sheet – Nelson’s Notebook. Both will focus primarily on mid to high-stakes formats such as NFFC and FFPC.
This column will be published by every Wednesday morning of the regular season. I’ll break down the top FAAB targets at each position (QB, WR, RB, TE, DST, TK) with a priority order/ranking and a bid amount range for each player. Bid ranges will be based on a starting FAAB of $1,000.
NFFC and FFPC run their first FAAB Wednesdays (10 p.m. ET). NFFC’s second run is on Saturday evenings (10 p.m.) and FFPC’s is Sunday mornings (10 a.m.).
I’ll use the $350 NFFC Online Championship (aka, the OC) as the basis for our weekly data, specifically the %-Rostered of each player. The $350 mid-stakes contest is the perfect framework as they inspire an extra level of seriousness and accountability from entrants, thereby providing a more realistic grasp of the market and projected bid results. Using the OC also allows for a large enough sample to draw from as there will be over 400 leagues (5,000 teams) in this national contest.
Week 3 Preview
If there is one thing fantasy football is good at, it’s keeping us on our toes. It’s only been two weeks, but the NFL seems to be flipped up on its head. Offenses are averaging less than 200 passing yards per game, several early-round wideouts either got hurt or scared the bejeezus out of us and the top draft season tight ends are off to a slow start. Baker Mayfield is the only QB averaging over 30 FPG (NFFC scoring), Isaiah Likely and Brock Bowers are the highest-scoring tight ends, J.K. Dobbins and Jordan Mason are the leading rushers, and Cowboys’ kicker Brandon Aubrey has more fantasy points than every receiver in the league except for Chris Godwin and Nico Collins. This week, we lost Christian McCaffrey and Isiah Pacheco to IR, Cooper Kupp is likely headed there, and Deebo Samuel and A.J. Brown are expected to sit out at least two weeks. There was some heavy bidding last week, but with these major losses, expect mayhem and panic in the form of overbidding to ensue. The standout targets for Wednesday night are the replacements of some of the aforementioned players, primarily Carson Steele, Jordan Whittington and Jauan Jennings. We’ll also see some over-the-top bids by box score chasers for Derek Carr, Sam Darnold, Hunter Henry and Alec Pierce. The targets themselves may be justified, but the market costs might be outrageous.
Don’t forget to utilize the FTN High Stakes Discord where Nelson Sousa hangs out and answers your questions.
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