Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Thursday, I took a look at three wide receiver landmines to avoid in 2021 fantasy football. Today, I am back to do the same with running back.
The biggest thing with running backs is volume and weighted opportunity. Volume — which directly correlates to snaps played for running backs — is king in fantasy football. You want the players who are going to be on the field the most — they will get the most touches and score the most points. It sounds beyond simple, but it is a mistake fantasy players continue to make.
The second thing I looked for is weighted opportunity. Weighted opportunity is more predictive than touches and weights targets over carries. For example, last year, in PPR scoring, a target was worth 2.5 times as much as a carry for fantasy. Pass-catching backs who have weekly target upside are better picks than between-the-tackles rushers who rely solely on touchdown variance for upside.
The running back position is historically something you want to target early or late, with mid-round guys being drafted more for positional scarcity than actual upside they might have. This is known as the running back dead zone, and it typically encompasses Rounds 3-6 or so. Most players in this area are landmines, but not all.
Here are my three biggest landmines to avoid this draft season.
Aaron Jones — fantasy football value
Underdog ADP: 16.5
Aaron Jones is extremely talented and has shown that when he gets a high snap volume he can be a top back. But there are issues While people will point to his 2020 finish as a top-eight running back, overall finishes matter little — it is all about the weekly upside. Last season, he had only four games finishing as a top-10 running back, failing to crack the top 20 three times. He was consistently a fringe RB1, finishing in the teens, only putting up 20-plus points in three total games last season. His issue is snap share. He played over 70% of the snaps just three times last year, and with the Packers spending second-round draft capital on A.J. Dillon a year ago, that is unlikely to change this season. At the turn or middle of the second round I would much rather take players like Stefon Diggs, Austin Ekeler, Calvin Ridley, Davante Adams, Antonio Gibson and others than consistently take Jones at cost.
D’Andre Swift is overvalued in fantasy football
Underdog ADP: 32
While the Lions’ offensive line drastically improved this season and will likely be a top 10 unit, the team will also boast a bottom-three roster in the NFL. Bottom-of-the-barrel offenses struggle to produce fantasy running backs — in fact, they almost never do. The way to make up for the lack of touchdown upside is being a workhorse back with pass-catching upside. While D’Andre Swift is certainly a talented pass catcher, the Lions added Jamaal Williams to the team and plan on playing him. According to beat reporters, this is going to be more of a 1-2 punch than a situation where Williams is a guy who comes in and gives Swift a breather. Last year, Swift played over 70% of the snaps just once and over 60% of the snaps only four times. If he hovers under 60% of the snaps, he won’t be on the field enough on a team that projects to score a bottom-three number of points to pay off this price tag. In the fourth round, I would be more willing to bet on the talent, but in third I am willing to let Swift be someone else’s headache.
Myles Gaskin’s ADP is too high in fantasy football
Underdog ADP: 60
Our own Matthew Freedman disagrees with me — per his bold predictions, he likes Gaskin to be a top 12 running back this year. But I am on the other side of Matt here. That’s never a place I want to be as Freedman is one of the sharpest people in the industry, but the hit rate of low-draft-capital running backs hitting back-to-back years in high-volume roles is minuscule. Myles Gaskin was a big winner on draft day as the Broncos sniped the Dolphins on Javonte Williams, and Gaskin is now the leader of the league’s least talented backfield, where he will be competing with Malcom Brown and Salvon Ahmed. Brown was signed in the offseason and has a history of being used as a goal-line back, while Ahmed offers some upside in the passing game. Gaskin was a player whose volume propelled him to fantasy relevance last year, as he was one of the league’s least efficient runners, averaging just 4.1 yards per carry. In games where he played 65% or less of the snaps, he finished as RB8, RB14, RB22, RB30 and RB35. I project Gaskin to play fewer snaps and am not high on buying in on the outlier performances last year from a guy of his portfolio. When he slips a round or two in drafts I will take him, but at current cost I am avoiding. The aforementioned Javonte Williams is going one spot later, and he is the superior talent, making him a player I am taking over Gaskin with ease.
