Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Sometimes in life, the things we don’t do are just as important as the things we do. Fantasy football is very similar — avoiding a player can be just as important as the players we draft onto our actual teams.
Now, when I say “avoid a player” or that he is a landmine, that is at current cost. “Do not draft” is a popular phrase — but it is moronic. Everything in fantasy football is about costs, when you are avoiding a player, that only means to avoid them at their current cost — if he drops multiple rounds, that can be the perfect time to get exposure. If someone says “Fade Justin Jefferson,” for example, that would be at his current cost, going at the turn. You can bet that some person would take Jefferson if he was there in the fifth round.
We all love to pretend we are right all the time, but the best in the business are frequently wrong, getting discounts on the guys you are low on is the best way to cover your downside. Here are three wide receivers I am avoiding at their current cost.
Ja’Marr Chase is overvalued in fantasy football
Underdog ADP: 46.3
Ja’Marr Chase is an elite prospect, fantastic athlete, playing with his former college QB, and was the first receiver to go top five since Corey Davis four years earlier. I believe in Chase as a player, but this is paying the ceiling price. The Bengals have two stud receivers in the offense already in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, both of whom are cheaper. Chase is going as the earliest rookie receiver in fantasy that I can remember — five rounds higher than any rookie last year — and is coming off a year where he didn’t even play football. Again, I like Chase the talent, but he is going ahead of proven commodities, players with less competition for targets, and players in offenses with higher projected production. While I am in on the Bengals offense, in terms of implied point totals in all games this season, the Bengals rank fifth lowest. That is a lot of questions to take a receiver in the fourth round — too many for me.
Kenny Golladay fantasy football value — too many question marks
Underdog ADP: 56.9
Changing teams is normally bad for a receiver. Historically, only about 33% of them outperform ADP and 31% outproduce their previous situation. Obviously, there are outliers — see Stefon Diggs last season — but betting on outliers is a great way to lose money and leagues. Now Kenny Golladay goes from Matthew Stafford to Daniel Jones, who has yet to support a WR1 in his career. Obviously, this is the best receiver Jones has ever played with, and he has actually performed well throwing the deep ball. Last year, Jones completed 48.7% of his deep pass attempts, third among quarterbacks with at least 30 deep pass attempts. That is Golladay’s strength, so there is upside. But Golladay is also going to a crowded receiving corps with Sterling Shepherd, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram and first-round pick Kadarius Toney. That is a lot of mouths to feed on a team that only averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game, the seventh fewest in all of football. Golladay is also coming off a hip injury that caused him to miss the final nine games of the season and left his free agent options with less choices than expected. There are simply too many questions for me to draft him consistently at this price tag.
Mecole Hardman is overpriced in fantasy football, yet again
Underdog ADP: 105.9
Sometimes we want something to be a thing so badly, despite evidence time and time again that it simply isn’t. Maybe it’s a bad relationship you stay in, or a diet that doesn’t work. Or maybe it’s paying a top price for a part-time receiver who has never shown the production or playing time to match the cost. I am talking about Mecole Hardman, who the fantasy community has tried to make a thing ever since he was drafted by the Chiefs. He played less than teammate Demarcus Robinson in each of the final eight games last season, Byron Pringle out-targeted him when Sammy Watkins missed time, and Hardman has been little more than gadget player his entire career. Yes, he is fast, and yes, he plays with Patrick Mahomes, but his teammates who are far cheaper and have played more and outproduced him are much better bets.
