Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The Cowboys will head to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers in Week 2, and both teams are coming off impressive results in Week 1. The Cowboys just narrowly missed upsetting the defending Super Bowl champs on the road, while the Chargers secured an upset victory on the road vs. Washington. Both squads were hoping to return to the playoffs this season, and there’s no reason either fanbase should feel less optimistic in Week 2.
Let’s dive into this matchup and try to identify some betting value.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Chargers Week 2 odds
Date/Time: September 19, 4:25 p.m. ET
Arena: SoFi Stadium
How to watch: CBS
Opening odds: Chargers -2.5 | O/U 52.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Latest Cowboys-Chargers odds
Looking for the latest odds for this matchup? Here they are, with the best prices from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Chargers -3.0
- Total: 55.0
For up-to-date odds, check out DraftKings Sportsbook.
Opening odds – Cowboys vs. Chargers
We don’t normally see a ton of line movement this early in the week, but the total in this game is an exception. The line has already increased by 2.5 points after opening at 52.5, and it’s even gotten up to 55.5 at certain locations.
Both offenses looked dynamic against strong defensive units in Week 1. The Cowboys slung the ball all over the field vs. the Buccaneers, while the Chargers’ offensive line kept a potent Washington pass-rush at bay. Those are two very good signs for these teams moving forward.
Additionally, we’ve also seen the line move from Chargers -2.5 to Chargers -3.0. A half-point line move doesn’t sound like a big deal, but 3.0 is the most important number in football. More games end on three than any other number, so that’s not a move that the sportsbooks make lightly.
The big reason for the move is an avalanche of early money siding with the Chargers. They’ve received just 39% of the spread tickets, but those have accounted for 86% of the spread dollars.
Quarterback analysis – Dak Prescott vs. Justin Herbert
Dak Prescott had some doubters heading into the year following a season-ending ankle injury last season, but he silenced his critics Thursday. He racked up 403 passing yards and three touchdowns vs. arguably the best defense in the league, and his lone interception came off a drop. He also got absolutely no help from his running game, which was stonewalled by the Bucs all night.
Like most good quarterbacks, Prescott has historically been excellent when getting points. He hasn’t been an underdog all that often, but he owns a 14-9 career record against the spread when getting points during the regular season.
Justin Herbert is coming off one of the best rookie passing seasons in history, and he followed that up with a strong performance vs. the Football Team. His counting stats weren’t eye-popping — 337 yards, one touchdown, one interception — but that was good enough to earn his team an outright victory as an underdog.
The more important development is that the Chargers’ offensive line could be very good this year. Washington boasts one of the best pass-rushes in the league, but Herbert was pressured on just six of 49 dropbacks. His PFF grade was nearly identical when pressured and with a clean pocket last year, but better protection can only be a good thing.
Latest Cowboys betting news & info
The Cowboys have a few things going for them in this matchup. The most important is that Zack Martin has been cleared to return from the Reserve/COVID-19 List. He earned the second-highest PFF grade at the guard position last year, so his return should be a big boost. Their running game could be particularly improved after averaging just 3.33 yards per carry vs. the Bucs.
However, the team did lose Michael Gallup to a calf injury, which landed him on the IR. Randy Gregory also landed on the Reserve/COVID-19 List, putting his status in jeopardy.
Another advantage that the Cowboys have is that they’re coming off the “mini-bye.” Playing Thursday night in Week 1 means they have a full 10 days to prepare for this matchup. Underdogs with 10 days to prepare vs. an opponent on normal rest have historically posted a record of 84-80-2 against the spread. That’s not profitable enough to draw any significant conclusions from, but it’s worth mentioning.
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Latest Chargers betting news & info
There isn’t a ton of news of note with the Chargers at the moment. Twitter has been buzzing about first-round rookie Rashawn Slater — who had some jaw-dropping moments vs. Chase Young and Montez Sweat — but that’s pretty much it.
Austin Ekeler was able to suit up despite being questionable earlier in the week, so he should be a full-go vs. the Cowboys.
One interesting stat of note is that the Chargers were an incredible 14 for 19 on third down vs. Washington. That’s going to be nearly impossible to duplicate, so some regression is possible moving forward.
Cowboys vs. Chargers betting picks – NFL Week 2
I’m a bit conflicted on this matchup. The sharps appeared to like the Chargers as 2.5-point favorites, but this number is less appealing at three. Their improved offensive line and a healthy defense makes them legit contenders for a playoff spot this season.
Still, it’s hard for me to pick against the Cowboys. Their offense has the chance to be special this season. The way Prescott picked apart the Buccaneers’ defense was extremely impressive, and adding Martin should only help.
The best bet here might be the over. The total has already shot up a ton, and I would only expect it to get higher. The Cowboys should be an over machine in 2021-22 given their potent offense and questionable defense.
Here are our betting picks for Cowboys vs. Chargers in Week 2.
FTNBets best bets
- Over 55.0
For more information, betting picks, and analysis, check out the FTN NFL Bet Tracker.
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