Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The first two weeks of college football brought a solid amount of success for us in both betting and DFS plays. There’s some terrific value on the board as the majority of teams across the country continue their campaign in Week 3. We’re using every tool we can to continue rolling our profits in 2021.
Over the last three years, I’ve found veteran teams more reliable than their peers within the first three weeks of the college football season. Week 3 is when we really start to get away from expectations and factor in early results. We’re going to find balance in our picks
We’ve made our Week 3 picks based on the meaningful trends and best values on the board. Check out our breakdown of each of our top plays.
Nevada Wolfpack at Kansas State Wildcats (2:05 p.m. ET Saturday)
(Nevada -2, O/U 50.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Normally, a game featuring Nevada and Kansas State wouldn’t draw much interest, but these two teams are considerably more fascinating in 2021 than they normally are. The Wolfpack have a potential first-round quarterback in Carson Strong, and the Wildcats have looked much more offensive competent than in recent years. We were also blessed with a juicy line.
Strong and the Wolfpack overcame a better defense in Week 1 against Cal, and I think they’ll find success against a less athletically gifted secondary in Kansas State. Nevada’s rushing defense must sustain their early-season success though, as the Wildcats have built a tremendous attack with Deuce Vaughn.
Betting trends
Nevada has covered in four of five games and won nine of their last 11. Each of their last five road contests hit the under.
Kansas State continues to be strong against the spread, covering 13 of their last 20. Four of their last six games have hit the under.
Best bet
Nevada -2 (-105) and Under 50.5 (-110)
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Memphis Tigers (4 p.m. ET Saturday)
(Mississippi State -3, O/U 63.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
What happens when two of the most productive passing games battle each other? We’re excited to see the fireworks as Mississippi State travels to Memphis as slight favorites. The Bulldogs are freshly off an impressive home win against N.C. State but must be sharp in Week 3.
The Tigers are their own offensive juggernaut. The step up in competition will be challenging, but few teams have the offensive balance Ryan Silverfield has achieved through two games. I think Memphis can pull this upset, but the Bulldogs have certainly proved themselves more than the Tigers have. I like the more athletic team to cover.
Betting trends
The Bulldogs have covered five of their last seven contests, but eight of 12 have gone under. They’ve won each of their last 10 battles against the Tigers by an average score of 29-11.
Memphis has only covered five of their last 16 games, and five of six have gone under the total.
Best bet
Mississippi State -3 (-105) and Under 63.5 (-110)
Virginia Cavaliers at North Carolina Tar Heels (7:30 p.m. ET Saturday)
(North Carolina -9, O/U 64.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Few have noticed, but the Virginia Cavaliers’ offense is fantastic. Quarterback Brennan Armstrong has been lighting defenses up to the tune of 71% completion rate for 744 yards and seven scores. He might be more productive than future first-round pick Sam Howell.
The Tar Heels’ star passer struggled in Week 1 with his new cast of playmakers around him. They bounced back last week but the competition rises against Virginia. The Tar Heels must play twice as well as they did against Virginia Tech to have a chance to cover.
Betting trends
Virginia has covered seven of their last eight games and won six of seven outright. They’ve covered five of six against North Carolina.
The Tar Heels are on a slide, failing to cover five of seven spreads. The over has hit seven of their last 10 games, and they have won 12 of 17 straight up.
Best bet
Virginia +9 (-115)
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Nebraska Cornhuskers at Oklahoma Sooners (noon ET Saturday)
(Oklahoma -22, O/U 62, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The key for the Sooners is to avoid turnovers and other self-inflicted setbacks. We’ve seen star quarterback Spencer Rattler start slowly now in two consecutive seasons, with interceptions plaguing his decision-making. While Oklahoma works to get extra possessions and has insane playmakers all over, interceptions will put the defense in bad positions they can’t overcome.
The good news is there’s an overwhelming amount of firepower for Lincoln Riley and Rattler to utilize to overcome the shaky starts. This unit is No. 2 in scoring and 17th in passing already, so it’s not as if they’re struggling too much. They simply get in their own way.
Both the Nebraska offense and Oklahoma defense can be characterized as milquetoast. Scott Frost has gotten better production out of Adrian Martinez and his playmakers. However, the jump in competition is massive, and we saw Illinois give Nebraska massive fits when the competition was similar.
The only way for Nebraska to score with Oklahoma is for Martinez to transcend what we’ve seen from him as a passer and be efficiently finding the gaps on intermediate and deep attempts.
Betting trends
Nebraska has covered in five of their last seven games but have failed to go over in four of their last five. They’ve lost five of six against Oklahoma.
Oklahoma has covered in eight of their last 10 games, winning six straight at home. Six of their last eight against Nebraska have gone under.
Best bet
Oklahoma -22 (-110)
