Buffalo Bills DVOA, Stats, & NFL Rankings

Buffalo Bills tight end Dawson Knox likely knows a reduced role is on the way again for him in 2024, although he is a favorite of quarterback Josh Allen's in the locker room, so it remains to be seen how much he'll be on the sidelines in favor of second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid. Allen may need to rely on Kincaid more to pick up a big amount of slack to keep the offense moving with an unproven receiver unit this year. Buffalo moved away from heavy usage of 12 personnel early in 2023 and mostly settled into 11 personnel. If that's the plan again in 2024, it will be interesting to see how they divvy up the snaps between Kincaid and Knox. Either way, unless Kincaid misses time with an injury, it's going to be hard to justify starting Knox outside of two-TE leagues.

In what is the weakest wide receiving corps the Buffalo Bills have had in several seasons, rookie second-round wideout Keon Coleman should start right away in his first NFL season alongside veteran Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir. Coleman has a lot of potential, but asking a 21-year-old to produce in a way he never has at a higher level of football seems like asking for too much, too soon, according to The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia. Depth is also an issue for this unit, with journeyman veteran Mack Hollins as their top reserve. Coleman has good size at 6-foot-3, 213 pounds, but his lack of production at Florida State made him a polarizing draft prospect. The good news is that he's going to have his opportunities right away, although that doesn't necessarily mean he'll be a starting fantasy option on a weekly basis right away.

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook bounced back from being benched last year and enters his third season in the NFL in 2024 as the unquestioned lead back with a giant gap between him and either Ty Johnson or rookie Ray Davis. Cook should continue to push toward some of the heaviest involvement the Bills have seen in recent years out of their top back. Johnson's game is similar to Cook's, so he'll likely have a game-day role when Cook needs a breather. The Bills are hoping Davis can add power and short-yardage ability, something the team has been wanting to add for years to the backfield. The 24-year-old Cook had a 1,000-yard rushing season in 2023 but added just two rushing TDs. What Cook lacks in scoring opportunities, he could make up for with his pass-catching abilities and sheer volume in 2024.

Buffalo Bills running back Ray Davis "could have a sneaky-big impact" in 2024, according to Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com. The Kentucky product was selected with the 128th overall pick in last month's draft and has impressive power behind his 5-foot-8, 211-pound frame. One NFL scout told Fowler that Davis is a "great complement to [James] Cook and should get a lot of goal-line and short-yardage work, which should result in some touchdowns." Cook is a fine runner, but he struggled in goal-line and short-yardage situations last year, delivering just two touchdowns. On the other hand, he emerged as a real receiving threat, catching 44 passes for 445 yards through the air. It's easy to envision a scenario where the Bills rely on Cook on early downs and in passing situations before turning to Davis when they need a physical back to secure a few yards. Such a backfield dynamic would drop Cook to the RB2 tier in fantasy football while Davis could sneak into RB3/FLEX territory.

Buffalo Bills general manager Brandon Beane said that quarterback Josh Allen really liked wide receiver Keon Coleman before the team selected him in the second round of this year's draft at No. 33 overall. Coleman said that after he was drafted, Allen texted him to say, "You're the guy that I wanted." The 20-year-old big-bodied wideout from Florida State was as impressive as any of the team's top pass-catchers in this year's draft with his ability to make tough, contested catches down the field. That will be useful when working with Allen and his gunslinging ways, but Coleman's weakness is that he doesn't generate much separation from defensive backs. Outside of his 11 touchdowns in 2023, Coleman had just 7.3 yards per target and isn't a burner. Despite his weaknesses, he should have plenty of opportunity in Buffalo in his rookie season.