Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
This should be a doozy. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to Los Angeles to take on the Rams in Week 3, and these are arguably the two best teams in the NFC. Both teams have started the year at 2-0, and they have the shortest odds to win the conference on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Bucs are the favorites at +250, but the Rams aren’t far behind at +600.
That said, the Rams are actually slight favorites in this matchup. Can they take care of business at home? Let’s dive in.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Rams Week 3 odds
Date/Time: September 26, 4:25 p.m. ET
Arena: SoFi Stadium
How to watch: FOX
Opening odds: Rams -1.5 | O/U 54.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Latest Buccaneers-Rams odds
Looking for the latest odds for this matchup? Here they are, with the best prices from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Rams -1.0
- Total: 54.5
For up-to-date odds, check out DraftKings Sportsbook.
Opening odds – Buccaneers vs. Rams
You may be thinking “why are the Rams favored if the Bucs are considered the better team?”, but don’t forget to adjust for home-field advantage. Home field is typically worth about three points on the spread, so this line is saying that the Buccaneers are approximately two points better than the Rams on a neutral field. That seems about right.
The line actually opened up as Rams -1.5, but the spread has dropped by half a point. The Bucs have received 75% of the early spread ticket and 63% of the spread dollars. That suggests that there has been at least a few big bets taken on the Rams, which tend to come from professional bettors.
The total hasn’t seen any movement yet, but 88% of the early dollars are siding with the under. If that continues, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the total drop by a point or two.
Quarterback analysis – Tom Brady vs. Matthew Stafford
So this Tom Brady guy is pretty good huh? In all seriousness, it’s getting hard to come up with new ways to describe just how fantastic this guy is at playing quarterback. He just turned the ripe old age of 44, yet he’s racked up 655 yards and a league-leading nine touchdown passes.
That said, it is worth noting that his big performances to start the year have come against the Cowboys and Falcons. Neither of those teams are intimidating defensively, so Brady will face his toughest test of the early season vs. the Rams.
Brady is only a small, one-point underdog, but it’s worth noting that the guy has historically been nails as an underdog. He is a nearly unfathomable 23-9-2 ATS since 2004 when getting points during the regular season. That includes a mark of 2-1 with the Bucs.
Matthew Stafford’s ATS numbers aren’t nearly as impressive, but it’s important to remember that he spent his entire career playing for a mediocre team. Now that he’s with the Rams, we’ll see if he can improve on that mark. He’s 1-1 ATS so far this season, but his loss came by only half a point.
Stafford’s early results with the Lions are promising. He’s been lights-out through his first two games, averaging 11.7 adjusted yards per attempt with five touchdowns and just one interception. He’s looked particularly good when targeting Cooper Kupp, with the two players hooking up for 16 catches, 271 yards, and three touchdowns.
The Bucs defense was outstanding in 2020, but they’ve looked a bit more vulnerable in 2021-22. Slot corner Ross Cockrell ranks just 87th out of 99 qualified corners per PFF, so Kupp could be looking at another huge day.
Latest Buccaneers betting news & info
These are two of the healthier teams in football at the moment. Sean Murphy-Bunting is the one real injury in this contest, and it’s a big one. His absence is what has forced Cockrell into the lineup, which leaves the Bucs’ secondary exploitable.
Latest Rams betting news & info
The Rams are currently dealing with an injury to Darrell Henderson, but he is tentatively expected to suit up. Head coach Sean McVay told reporters that Henderson is dealing with a rib cartilage issue, and injuries have been an issue throughout his career.
Henderson dominated the backfield touches for the Rams in Week 1, but he played on just 68% of the team’s snaps last week. Sony Michel saw 10 carries to Henderson’s 13, so these players appear poised for a timeshare as Michel gets more comfortable in the Rams’ system.
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Buccaneers vs. Rams betting picks – NFL Week 3
There are merits for both of these teams in this spot. Brady is obviously the GOAT, and his record when getting points speaks for itself. Still, I find myself leaning toward the Rams. Not only will this be the best defense the Bucs have faced by a wide margin, but the matchup between Kupp and Cockrell is the biggest advantage for either side.
If the betting activity continues in the same manner, the Rams would also qualify for a powerful early-season trend. The public loves to overreact to what they see over the first few weeks, so it has unsurprisingly been very profitable to fade them. Teams receiving between 10 and 29% of the spread tickets have historically covered at a 58.3% clip in Weeks 2 and 3. That’s good for a +14.3% return on investment.
FTNBets best bets
- Rams -1.0
For more information, betting picks, and analysis, check out the FTN NFL Bet Tracker.
How to bet on this game
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