Biggest bust candidates at tight end in fantasy football

While tight ends can often be tremendous difference-makers for your fantasy teams, the relationship works in both directions. One of the absolute worst things you can do in terms of team construction is whiff on an early TE. Not only will you be losing value at that spot, but there is also a higher opportunity-cost to taking a TE instead of a RB or WR early in the draft. It is critical to avoid land mines. Here are the TEs you need to be avoiding in 2020.

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams

Valuing Gerald Everett as a breakout naturally makes Higbee a bust candidate. After Higbee’s finish to the 2019 season, it is easy to forget that Everett was the very first pick by the Rams in the Sean McVay era, and Higbee’s production has been almost entirely dependent upon his absence.

It is also worth noting that while Brandin Cooks has departed from the club, the Rams have some added depth at WR after selecting Van Jefferson in the second round of the 2020 draft. With Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Josh Reynolds locked in as starters, and Jefferson waiting in the wings, it is less likely that additional targets slide over to the TEs. This means that, once again, Higbee’s value will be contingent upon the presence of Everett.

Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers

We’ll stay in L.A. for the next bust candidate in Henry. This ADP is quite perplexing given his lengthy injury history, which includes an ACL tear, leg tibial plateau fracture and lacerated kidney. He has missed 22 games over the last three seasons. On the field, Hunter has produced, finishing as the TE8 in PPG in 2019 and TE7 in 2017. But those seasons occurred with Philip Rivers at QB, and the presumed 2020 starter for Week 1 is Tyrod Taylor, with rookie Justin Herbert waiting in the wings. Taylor-led teams do not tend to pass nearly as much as those with Rivers.

Due to Taylor’s rushing ability, and what he does for a team’s run game, he attempts far fewer passes than Rivers does over the course of a game. This has major ramifications over the course of a full season in terms of available targets. 

Expectations should not be much higher for the pass game whenever Herbert is inserted as the starter. Since 2010, there have been 24 QBs to be drafted in the top half of the first round then play as a rookie. The average number of pass attempts per game for that group was 30.5, a season-long pace of 488.7. In fact, only three QBs in the sample (Andrew Luck, Carson Wentz, and Sam Bradford) met or exceeded the pace set by Rivers. It is clear that the Chargers will have less pass game volume in 2020.

The Chargers are also flush with weapons. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams demand targets at WR, while Austin Ekeler is coming off of a 92-catch season at RB. Being the third or fourth option in a low-volume pass offense is not a recipe for fantasy success. 

Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It is certainly surprising to live in a world where a top-12 TE’s most recent athletic accomplishment was a WWE match, but here we are. There are reasons to believe Gronk was starting to fade prior to retiring after the 2018 season. 

Josh Hermsmeyer analyzed game speed provided by Next Gen Stats and created Fastness Under/Above Positional Average (FUPA/FAPA). The statistic only exists for 2016 and 2017, but there was a noticeable dip for Gronkowski in this time period, from 3.5 to -7.4. This happens to line up with Gronk seeing his RACR dip from a career 0.95 to 0.85. While game speed was not available for 2018, Gronkowski’s RACR dropped again to 0.75. Now a year removed from the game, who knows what his true ability level is right now. 

Gronkowski also has almost unprecedented competition in the pass game for targets. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are each coming off of top-five seasons in PPR points per game, and the Bucs are absolutely loaded at TE. O.J. Howard has the highest yards per target of any TE since 2017 with at least 100 targets, and Cameron Brate has the highest touchdown rate (Howard is fourth). Bruce Arians' offenses also typically lend some target volume to RBs, about 20% in his past five seasons as a coach. 

No matter how you slice it, it is difficult to see Gronk accumulating decent target volume, meaning you are relying on touchdown scoring by taking him with an early selection. 

Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints

Cook finished 10th in points per game in 2019, but it required some unreal efficiency (rankings below for TEs with at least three targets per game). 

The Saints do not throw the ball as often as they used to, and Cook is clearly behind in the pecking order to both Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. We should not anticipate Cook maintaining the efficiency required to finish this high at the position. 

Since 2000, 45 TEs with a YPT of 9.0 or higher have had at least three targets per game in successive seasons. Thirty-eight of them (84%) saw a decline in YPT the following year, with an average change of 16.3%. There have been 46 TEs to score a TD on at least 10% of their catches in that same time period. Forty-two of them (91%) dropped off in TD rate the next season, with an average change of 47.8%. 

Cook is unlikely to make up for and drop in efficiency with volume now that the Saints have signed Emmanuel Sanders. He has averaged seven targets per game for his career, and has finished as a top-36 PPR WR in six of the past seven seasons. New Orleans hasn’t had a second WR command much target volume aside from Michael Thomas, and that could change (to Cook’s detriment) in 2020.