Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Dr. Pepper is the most underrated soda in the world. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve ordered one, only to be greeted by ridicule and dirty looks. Seriously. For whatever reason, many people don’t enjoy Dr. Pepper like I do. And the same can be said for players throughout the fantasy football landscape. While the Coca-Cola and Pepsi of the world are receiving the attention, we have a ton of players (Dr. Pepper) that are being slept on and falling down draft boards. Who, you might ask?
You’re in luck.
Today, I’ll be going through all 32 teams in the NFL, highlighting each club’s most undervalued players in fantasy football drafts. Some players are better values than others but keep all 32 in your mind while doing your drafts over the course of the summer.
Arizona Cardinals: James Conner is a fantasy football sleeper
Everyone wanted Chase Edmonds to be a fantasy superstar, but the Cardinals don’t view him as an every-down back. They added Conner, who will likely operate in the Kenyan Drake role that resulted in 19.5 carries per game, while his 239 total carries ranked seventh best. He also finished third in the NFL in carries from inside the 10-yard line (21), while scoring 10 rushing touchdowns. Conner should have that role and while he’ll compete for red zone carries with Kyler Murray, he will be getting the more valuable touches over Edmonds, yet is being drafted after him, just outside the top-100 picks.
Atlanta Falcons: Olamide Zaccheaus is a deep fantasy football sleeper
In case you are living under a rock, Julio Jones is out of Atlanta. Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts are the only two Falcons pass-catchers you are starting in fantasy, but in deeper leagues, both Russell Gage and Zaccheaus are worth a look. Gage, however, is being drafted around WR53, which is about right, and possibly even a bit too high. Zaccheaus, meanwhile, is being drafted outside of the top-80 receivers and has a path to a career-high in both snaps and targets in 2021. The Falcons will try to run the football under Arthur Smith, but this team is always among the league leaders in both passing attempts and passing yards.
Baltimore Ravens: Gus Edwards has RB2 upside in fantasy football
I have declared my love for the Gus Bus all offseason, and it isn’t slowing down. Since 2018, Edwards is averaging 5.2 yards per carry, the second-best mark in football. He is coming off a productive 2020 campaign, rushing for 723 yards and six touchdowns on 144 carries. Playing in this Baltimore offense is great for running backs, as Edwards averaged 2.3 and 2.5 yards before first contact over the last two seasons. Lamar Jackson opens up this rushing attack so much, and it is almost unstoppable. Edwards makes plays after contact, too, ranking seventh in the league in yards after contact per rush (2.7). He’ll likely join J.K. Dobbins in a 1A/1B committee but is being drafted as strictly a handcuff, which he is not.
Buffalo Bills: Cole Beasley is an underrated PPR option
During his first two seasons in Buffalo, Beasley has finished as the WR27 and WR34 in PPR formats, yet he is currently coming off the board outside of the top-50 wideouts. He isn’t the flashiest player, but Beasley remains the No. 2 target in one of the league’s best passing attacks. Buffalo transitioned to a pass-heavy team last year, ranking 10th in the league in pass attempts per game (37.7), while operating as one of the pass-happiest teams early in downs, too. He’ll continue to be Josh Allen’s second target and should keep torching zone coverage, as he averaged the sixth-most yards per route run against zone in 2020 (2.65). And while Buffalo does have plenty of receivers, playing time won’t be a problem for Beasley, as the Bills ran out of four-wide sets at the second-highest rate in football last year.
Carolina Panthers: Robby Anderson is a proven WR2 in fantasy football
I completely whiffed on Anderson last year, and he is coming off a career year, hauling in 136 balls for 1,096 yards. Anderson was used much differently with the Panthers, as he was used in the intermediate game far more than ever. In fact, Anderson’s yards before the catch per reception dropped from 11.3 in 2019 to 6.3 in 2020, while his average depth of target dropped from 15.76 yards to 9.78. That led to more consistent production from Anderson, who finished as the WR19 in PPR leagues. Despite the more favorable usage and strong play, Anderson is currently being drafted as the WR34 in NFFC. I’d much rather draft Anderson than Courtland Sutton, Will Fuller and D.J. Chark, who are all coming off the board before him.
Chicago Bears: Darnell Mooney is a fantasy football sleeper
Out of nowhere like an RKO, Mooney has become one of my favorite players in fantasy for the upcoming season. He showed serious signs in his rookie year, getting open very often, especially deep down the field. Poor quarterback play limited his upside, as Mooney saw 23 deep targets in 2020 but only caught four of them. He didn’t drop any of his targets, however, which means Mitchell Trubisky and company just couldn’t connect with him down the field. I expect that to change with Justin Fields eventually starting at quarterback for the Bears this season. Mooney is a top-45 wideout for me in his sophomore year but is being drafted well outside the top-50.
Cincinnati Bengals: Tee Higgins could finish as the WR1 in Cincinnati
All of the excitement is surrounding Ja'Marr Chase, and for good reason. He is one of the best receiver prospects we’ve seen in a while and will be a tremendous player. However, this has led to Higgins becoming a value in fantasy drafts, as he is being drafted a decent bit later than Chase. Higgins was very good as a rookie last year, catching 67 passes for over 900 yards and six touchdowns. He also saw nearly 30% of the Bengals’ air yards and in this offense, Higgins can easily finish with numbers close or better than Chase, especially with Joe Burrow ranking second in pass attempts before suffering his season-ending injury.
Cleveland Browns: Jarvis Landry still presents a solid floor
I’ll admit it. I don’t love drafting Landry, because where he comes off draft boards, I am looking for players with more upside. However, he remains the top value from this Cleveland team, being drafted around the WR45. And despite having the worst statistical season of his career, Landry still finished as a top-35 fantasy wide receiver in 2020. Odell Beckham will be back this season, but Landry should still warrant six or seven targets per game, remaining a viable PPR flex option.
Dallas Cowboys: Ezekiel Elliott remains a top-three running back in fantasy football
I didn’t think I’d have to write about Elliott being a value in fantasy, but here we are. Elliott had a down 2020 campaign, mainly due to the Cowboys offensive line falling apart, while their starting quarterback missed most of the season. However, before Dak Prescott went down, Elliott was the RB2 in fantasy, second among all running backs in receptions (32). Suddenly, after a lost season for the Dallas offense, so many people are assuming Ellliott, just 25 years old, is finished. I honestly don’t get it, and since he is coming off draft boards around the 10th or 11th pick, yeah, I see him as a value — he is my No. 3 overall player in fantasy. This Cowboys offense is going to be elite and play fast, as they averaged 24.8 seconds per snap last year, the second-highest mark in the NFL.
Denver Broncos: Denver’s DST will return to prominence in 2021
A defense? Yes, a defense. Despite missing Von Miller for all of last season, the Broncos finished ninth in sacks, ranking seventh in pressure rate at 26.2%. The issue last year was their depleted secondary, resulting in this defense ranking bottom-eight in interception rate. They have addressed the secondary in the offseason, however, adding Kyle Fuller, Ronald Darby and first-round draft pick Patrick Surtain. This is a borderline top-five DST for me in 2021.
Detroit Lions: Amon-Ra St. Brown has fantasy football sleeper potential
Fourth-round draft capital isn’t the greatest, but I believe in St. Brown’s talent. He lands in Detroit, giving him a chance to see 90-100 targets right away. St. Brown will operate out of the slot and be Jared Goff’s intermediate target, which is where he tends to throw the football. Just 7.8% of Goff’s pass attempts last year were 20 yards or more down the field, so St. Brown could lead these wideouts in targets in year one, especially on a bad team that should be throwing the ball quite a bit. 50.7% of Goff’s pass attempts last year were of the short variety last year, a top-five rate in the league.
Green Bay Packers: Is Robert Tonyan a legitimate fantasy tight end?
Tonyan came out of nowhere to enjoy a breakout 2020 campaign, hauling in 52 passes for 586 yards and 11 (!) touchdowns. That is an 18.6% touchdown rate, y’all, a very unrepeatable number. I expect regression for Tonyan, but with the Aaron Rodgers situation, the ADP on the Green Bay players is dropping, which is something drafters can take advantage of. Tonyan is being drafted as the TE13 right now but if Rodgers is back in Green Bay, he should be drafted in that 8-11 range at the position.
Houston Texans: Don’t sleep on Nico Collins in year one
The Texans are going to be one of the worst offenses in the NFL this season, but there are opportunities here, especially for Collins. He presents something the rest of the Houston receivers lack: size. At 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, Collins has a chance to start opposite Brandin Cooks in two-receiver sets in an offense that will have to throw a lot to keep up with opposing offenses. And during his collegiate career, Collins averaged just over 19 yards per reception.
Indianapolis Colts: Michael Pittman is a sophomore breakout candidate
While T.Y. Hilton is the aging veteran, the Colts have some young talent at receiver with Pittman. He missed a few games during his rookie year but when he was on the field, he showed what he can do. His 7.3 yards after the catch per reception ranked third-best among all wide receivers in 2020 and at 6-4, 223 pounds, with that ability with the ball in his hands, Pittman has plenty of potential.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Marvin Jones is underrated in fantasy football every year
Is anyone surprised by this? No? OK, good. Once again, Jones is being drafted way too late in fantasy drafts and despite the veteran wideout joining a new team, I’m still on board. Jones, who has finished as a top-30 fantasy receiver in three of his last four seasons, is being drafted around WR50 right now. And yes, I get it. Jones will compete with D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault for targets, but this is a player who has scored nine touchdowns in three of his last four seasons, while ranking inside the top-20 in end zone targets every year during that span. He is familiar with this offense, as his coordinator in Jacksonville is the same he had during his time in Detroit in Darrell Bevell. Death, taxes and Adam Pfeifer touting Marvin Jones as an elite value in fantasy football.
Kansas City Chiefs: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a post-hype breakout candidate
This time last year, CEH was being drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts. He didn’t live up to that hype in his rookie year, rushing for 803 yards and four touchdowns, while adding 297 receiving yards on 36 receptions. The goal-line usage was the issue — Edwards-Helaire saw a whopping six carries from inside the 5-yard line in Week 1, failing to find the end zone, and so the rest of the season, CEH saw just three such carries, which hurt his ceiling in fantasy. However, I expect him to be better in that role in year two, especially with the Chiefs upgrading their offensive line tremendously. He is still the lead back in the league’s best offense and I also expect more consistent work in the passing game after a more regular offseason.
Los Angeles Chargers: Mike Williams has unrealized fantasy football potential
At age 26, Williams still has plenty of upside. Over the last two seasons, Williams has posted discordant numbers, scoring five touchdowns and recording only 756 yards in 2020, while eclipsing 1,000 yards but only scoring twice in 2019. If he could mesh the two seasons together, we’d be in business. However, I am still intrigued by Williams, especially with him going outside the top-50 wideouts. Hunter Henry is gone, and this Chargers passing attack is very concentrated, as it’ll go through Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler and Williams, who is on track for a career-high in targets. And they also don’t have a true red zone threat, which gives Williams double-digit touchdown upside, while you know he’ll make plays deep down the field, ranking 11th, second and sixth in aDOT over the last three seasons.
Los Angeles Rams: Van Jefferson is a deep sleeper in fantasy football
Jefferson didn’t play much during his rookie season, logging just over 23% of the offensive snaps for the Rams. However, with Josh Reynolds gone, Jefferson could become the WR3 for an improved Rams offense with Matthew Stafford now under center. We only saw one game where he played meaningful snaps, a playoff contest against the Packers where he filled in admirably for Cooper Kupp, catching six balls for 46 yards and a touchdown.
Las Vegas Raiders: Bryan Edwards has a path to productive sophomore season
It was a lost season for any Raiders wide receiver outside of Nelson Agholor in 2020. Henry Ruggs underwhelmed, and Edwards missed four games due to injury and then limped his way back into the lineup, ultimately playing just 24% of the offensive snaps. However, Agholor is gone and while the Raiders did bring in John Brown to fill that role, Edwards doesn’t have a ton of competition for targets outside of tight end Darren Waller. He has the size (6-foot-3, 215 pounds) and has the ability to be this team’s top wide receiver. The Raiders defense is bad, so they’ll see their fair share of shootouts, and Edwards is being drafted outside of the top-70 wideouts in fantasy.
Miami Dolphins: Myles Gaskin can be a workhorse running back
Gaskin isn’t the sexiest name in fantasy but when he was on the field last year, he got the rock. He averaged 18.3 touches per game and was among the league leaders in opportunity share in 2020, as Miami used a featured running back at all times last year. Gaskin played in 10 games, and in the games he was healthy, he was a top-12 fantasy running back. The Dolphins only brought in Malcolm Brown at the running back position this offseason and for whatever reason, Gaskin is being drafted on average at the RB24.
Minnesota Vikings: The Irv Smith breakout is still alive
Sure, head coach Mike Zimmer recently stated that he doesn’t believe Smith’s role will change in 2021, despite the departure of Kyle Rudolph. He then talked up Tyler Conklin. But I’m not worried and still believe in Smith. Irv played Weeks 14-17 with Rudolph out of the lineup last year and in those games, he was the TE4 in fantasy, averaging 12.8 fantasy points per game during that stretch. He also saw four end zone targets in those weeks, tied for the most among all tight ends and it really was a sign of what could be to come over the course of next season. The Vikings defense should take a step forward this year, which could lead to less passing volume, but the tight end position is brutal after the top six or seven, so this shouldn’t deter you from drafting Smith, especially at his TE11 ADP.
New England Patriots: Cam Newton can post one more QB1 season in fantasy
This is more for superflex or 2QB leagues, as you won’t need to draft Newton in most of your traditional redraft leagues. However, despite an awful season from the Patriots in 2020, there is a path to Newton posting low-end QB1 numbers in year two. For starters, he is already way ahead of where he was with New England’s offense than this time last year. Secondly, Newton was the QB7 through the first four weeks of the year, averaging 0.73 points per dropback and 24.5 fantasy points per game during that span. His rushing remained a huge part of it, as Newton averaged 9.1 carries per game and 2.8 red zone carries per game. Newton finished the year with 12 rushing touchdowns, while his 19 carries from inside the five-yard line were the fourth-most in football. The passing numbers obviously weren’t great, but the Patriots drastically improved their skill position players in the offseason, adding Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith and Nelson Agholor. Don’t be shocked if he finishes as a top-12 signal caller in his second season with the Patriots.
New Orleans Saints: Tre'Quan Smith has fantasy potential… if Jameis Winston is the QB
We haven’t seen a Saints wide receiver opposite Michael Thomas be fantasy relevant in a while, but there is some hope for Smith. New Orleans has zero depth at the receiver position and the targets should funnel through Thomas and Alvin Kamara. But if Winston wins the starting quarterback job, Smith has upside, as the Saints passing attack could be more aggressive than in years past. Winston has ranked inside the top-three in average depth of target in each of the last four seasons he's been a starter, which could bode well for Smith, who is a downfield receiver. There is a lot of upside in a player like Smith, especially coming off the board outside of the top-60 wide receivers.
New York Giants: Is this the year for Daniel Jones?
If it doesn’t happen this year for Jones, I don’t think it ever will. Jones was hyped up going into last year, but he didn't deliver, as he once again struggled with turnovers and pocket presence. However, there were still some signs of fantasy upside, as he averaged 4.6 carries and 30.2 rushing yards per game, while he was inside the top-five in adjusted completion percentage on deep passes. Now the Giants added one of the elite deep threats in the NFL in Kenny Golladay, as well as Kadarius Toney. If the offensive line can become league average, Jones could shine, as he was under pressure on over 40% of his dropbacks last year. The early-season schedule is also much better for Jones in 2021, opposed to last year where he opened the year with Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Washington, Chicago and Los Angeles Rams. I have him as a top-16 quarterback and he’s being drafted well outside the top-20.
New York Jets: Elijah Moore will produce right away in fantasy football
Moore has been lighting up Jets camp, consistently getting open and making plays. Zach Wilson has been looking his way early and often, and even though Jamison Crowder will remain with the Jets, it appears Moore is still going to open the season starting on the outside, ahead of Denzel Mims. He’s barely being drafted as a top-60 receiver right now, but I think he should be closer to fellow rookies Jaylen Waddle and Rashod Bateman in ADP.
Philadelphia Eagles: Dallas Goedert has top-five fantasy upside
I have been drafting Goedert a lot so far this summer, especially in best ball. His ADP on Underdog is pick 83, coming off the board as the TE7. And while I get the hype, I would not draft Kyle Pitts over Goedert in any format. He is being drafted way later and is one of a handful of tight ends that could legitimately see 100 targets this season. Zach Ertz will not be with the Eagles for long and this Philadelphia offense will be fairly concentrated. And during the three games he played alongside Jalen Hurts, Goedert averaged six targets per game.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Diontae Johnson is a target machine
Not many players saw more targets per route last year than Johnson, who ended the season with 144 targets (sixth-most), averaging nearly 10 per game. In fact, Johnson saw double-digit targets in every game he played the majority of the snaps, and while the Steelers are looking to add more to the running game, I’m not convinced this won’t be a top-five team in pass rate again in 2021. And if Johnson can add some efficiency to his game (league-leading 12 drops), there is top-10 potential for him, as he is truly the number-one in this passing game. I have him as a top-16 wide receiver, but he is being drafted closer to WR25 in most formats.
Seattle Seahawks: Chris Carson is perpetually underrated
A lot of drafters pass on Carson because he is “always hurt.” However, he’s only missed seven games over the last three seasons and when he is on the field, he is a top-10 running back. In the full games he played in 2020, Carson was a top-10 fantasy running back and per usual, was a tough runner, averaging 3.20 yards after contact per attempt, a top-12 mark in the league. He also averaged nearly four targets per game (a career-high) though Seattle will remain a run-first team in 2021, which will benefit Carson. I’ve seen too many drafts where he is going just outside the top-20 running backs and that is a mistake.
San Francisco 49ers: Deebo Samuel is the preferred WR to target
Samuel has struggled to stay healthy as of late, playing in only seven games. However, in his fully healthy games, Samuel averaged over eight targets per game, while handling a few carries per game, too. We saw Brandon Aiyuk smash last year and while he’s a very good player, his numbers were propelled by the absences of Samuel and George Kittle. As a result, his ADP has climbed, and he is coming off the board around eight or nine receiver spots ahead of Samuel. I’d rather wait and draft Samuel because this is still going to be a run-first team with questionable quarterback play, at least to start the season. I love Samuel’s highly convertible targets and ability after the catch, making him a solid PPR flex.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Antonio Brown remains very relevant in fantasy football
It’s weird to see Brown coming off the board in the ninth or 10th round as the WR50. This is someone who was the consensus WR1 for years. And sure, those days are gone, but don’t overlook what Brown did when he joined the Buccaneers last year. Including the playoffs, Brown appeared in 11 games with Tampa Bay, averaging nearly seven targets per game. He finished with a stat line of 53-564-6, and the Bucs generated plays for the veteran wideout. 30.6% of his targets came off screens, the eighth-highest mark among qualified receivers, while his 19 receptions off the play type were good for third-most at the position. Although he is being drafted way later than Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, it wouldn’t shock me if his targets weren’t far off at the end of the season.
Tennessee Titans: Anthony Firkser still has sleeper appeal
The Firkser hype train has died down since Julio Jones joined the Titans. And while he’s certainly not a top-10 candidate at the moment, I still like drafting him if I miss out at the tight end position. Firkser will open the season as Tennessee’s starting tight end and was quietly very efficient last season, averaging 0.24 fantasy points per snap, according to Pro Football Focus. That was the ninth-best mark among all tight ends. Tight ends accounted for 29.4% of the Titans targets last year and while they do have a new offensive coordinator in Todd Downing, he, like Arthur Smith, is a former tight ends coach. At TE17, I still think he’s the best value from this team.
Washington Football Team: Curtis Samuel’s reunion in Washington
After spending his first four seasons in Carolina, Samuel heads to Washington, reuniting with Ron Rivera and Scott Turner, who coached Samuel with the Panthers. He is coming off a career season in 2020, catching 77 passes for 851 yards and three scores, while adding 200 yards and two touchdowns on 41 carries. The all-around production helped him finish as a top-30 fantasy wideout but now as the No. 2 in Washington with an aggressive quarterback, Samuel is likely in line for a career-high in targets, while the coaching staff will certainly know how to use him in this offense.
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