Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
(FTN Fantasy is reacting to all the big fantasy news of the offseason! Follow along in our transaction tracker.)
The Cincinnati Bengals turned the page at running back Monday, agreeing to terms with former Colts running back Zack Moss and releasing longtime starter Joe Mixon. Moss joins Cincinnati on a two-year, $8 million deal.
Moss was traded from the Bills to the Colts in the middle of the 2022 season. His first three years in the league were fairly ho-hum, but his 2023 in Indianapolis was the best year of his career, with Moss setting career highs in carries (183), rushing yards (794), rushing TDs (5), targets (37), receptions (27) and receiving scores (2), and coming just shy of his career-high of 197 receiving yards with 192. Moss opened the season as the fill-in starter for Jonathan Taylor in Indianapolis, but he kept some fantasy value even after Taylor returned healthy.
In Cincinnati, Moss will get to operate in a similar offense to the one he thrived in in Indianapolis, heavily out of 11 personnel. His arrival coincides with the release of Joe Mixon, who turns 28 in July. Mixon has averaged only 3.96 yards per carry over the last four years, with his overall PFF grade in 2023 (71.1) the second lowest of his career. Mixon enters a running back free agent market that has seen massive movement over just one day of free agency and still has several big names still looking for work, so Mixon’s best chance right now is probably a backup/handcuff role.
2023 rookie Chase Brown could be a sneaky winner here, with a shot at a breakout role alongside Moss in Cincinnati. Brown flashed a bit down the stretch of last season and could pop as the 1B to Moss’ 1A.
Meanwhile, Moss’ departure gives Jonathan Taylor a clear path to a massive workload in 2024. That was probably happening regardless, but the Colts currently don’t have a back worthy of significant work like Moss currently on the roster, so Taylor is about as solid a bet to be an RB1 in fantasy as anyone.
