NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Now more than ever, the fantasy and betting landscapes are providing a year-round experience for fans, especially when it comes to the NFL. With the advent of best ball and growth of dynasty leagues – plus the explosion of legal sports betting options – casual fantasy players and bettors are no longer waiting until the late summer to catch up and get involved.
Still, summer brings with it an enhanced focus on NFL content. Talk shows, podcasts and Twitter timelines are zeroing in on the upcoming season, fantasy drafts and competitions are ubiquitous, and sportsbooks are taking bets on futures like division, conference and Super Bowl champions.
Over the summer, I’ll attempt to satisfy your craving for NFL content by previewing every division. I’ll cover key division storylines, provide a breakdown for each team and give out my pick to win each division.
(Check out the division previews so far: AFC East | NFC East | AFC North | NFC North | AFC South | NFC South)
AFC West Preview
After an offseason full of hype for everyone except the Chiefs, Kansas City marched its way to a 14-3 record and captured its seventh consecutive AFC West title. The Los Angeles Chargers finished second in the division at 10-7 before catastrophically blowing a 27-0 to the Jaguars in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. The Las Vegas Raiders, even with Davante Adams and a career year from Josh Jacobs, stumbled to an underwhelming 6-11 season. Lastly, the Denver Broncos – the offseason champs – crashed and burned to a 5-12 record thanks to maybe one of the worst offensive seasons ever relative to expectations.
Entering 2023, the Chiefs are again the favorite, this time checking in with an implied 62% chance to win the division (-160). They’re followed by last year’s second place finishers, the Chargers (+300), the Broncos (+550) and the Raiders (+1200). Is this the year the Chiefs get knocked off? Maybe the Chargers finally break through or the Broncos bounce back in a big way.
Kansas City Chiefs
(FanDuel Sportsbook division title odds: -160)
Despite losing Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs led the NFL in scoring at over 29 points per game en route to their second Super Bowl in the Patrick Mahomes era. The loss of Hill, combined with every other team in the division improving on paper, sparked real debate about who the best team in the AFC West was heading into last season. Kansas City easily put that conversation to rest by securing the No. 1 seed on the back of that electric offense. Now, they enter as odds-on favorites because Mahomes proved that it doesn’t necessarily matter who he’s throwing to.
There are a handful of changes on each side of the ball for the Chiefs, and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy is now in Washington, but none of that is enough to make me pick against them. As long as Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are running the show, Kansas City will be the favorite in the AFC West and one of the top Super Bowl contenders. Their biggest threat is likely the Chargers, who clinched a playoff berth last season and have experienced very little roster turnover this offseason.
Los Angeles Chargers
(FanDuel odds: +300)
The aforementioned Chargers closed the season in horrific fashion after blowing a 27-0 lead to the Jaguars in the AFC Divisional Round, but that overshadowed the type of season they actually had. After failing to reach the playoffs the year prior despite high expectations, Los Angeles got over the proverbial hump in 2022. The defense was again banged up for much of the year, and the offense left a lot to be desired considering how great its weapons are, but help has arrived. Former Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will be calling plays for the Chargers this season, and most fantasy and NFL analysts are excited to see how he takes Justin Herbert’s game to the next level.
If Moore can help elevate Herbert and the rest of the Chargers’ offense, they could be nearly on par with Mahomes and the Kansas City offense. Still, to overtake the seven-time reigning champs, the defense will need to step up. The Los Angeles defense ranked in the bottom-third of the NFL in tackling and third worst overall in run defense per PFF. They also gave up a whopping 5.4 yards per carry per FTN’s team defense stats. The best-case scenario for the Chargers is that the defense is average against the run, Moore encourages Justin Herbert to throw it deep (30th in deep ball rate) and they overtake the Chiefs as division champs. The worst case is that they’re largely the same on both sides of the ball, and they finish second or third with a shot at a wild card berth in a solid division.
Denver Broncos
(FanDuel odds: +550)
2023 can’t be worse than 2022 for the Denver Broncos. Russell Wilson forgot how to play quarterback, Nathaniel Hackett burst into flames under the media microscope in his first season as a head coach and a few impactful injuries piled onto the misery. Now, Sean Payton will step in and attempt to bring the success that everyone expected when Denver traded for Wilson. From a personnel perspective, the Broncos were aggressive this offseason, signing offensive linemen Mike McGlinchey and Ben Powers as well as former Chiefs defensive end Frank Clark. With all their starting skill players back on offense, this team again looks very solid on paper.
What if Russell Wilson turns into Russell Wilson of old? That’s a trap fantasy players often fall into, and it’s unlikely that he’s ever the same quarterback he was at his peak, but if there’s something still left in the tank, the Broncos could be sneaky. A healthy young wide receiver duo, a promising young tight end, a legendary head coach and Super Bowl winning quarterback is still a great recipe for success. I’m not so sure about the Broncos leapfrogging the Chargers and the Chiefs to win the AFC West, but making the playoffs is not far-fetched. On the flip side, we’ve seen how badly this can go. Their range of outcomes feels like one of the widest in the NFL.
Las Vegas Raiders
(FanDuel odds: +1200)
Entering last season, the combination of Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams and Darren Waller seemed like it would be one of the best in the league. Now, Carr is in New Orleans with the Saints, Waller is playing for the Giants and the Raiders are left trying to decide if they are in a rebuild or trying to contend. It seems like the latter is their plan, but signing Jimmy Garoppolo and Jakobi Meyers simply won’t be enough to compete in this loaded division. With the offense either taking a step back or staying mostly the same, the defense that trotted out one of the worst secondaries in the NFL would need to be one of the league’s best 10-15.
The best case for the Raiders is that everyone is healthy to start the year and they battle their way to a fringe wild card spot which they probably wouldn’t secure. The worst case is that Garoppolo’s injury concerns hold him back, the defense is awful yet again and they are one of the worst teams in the NFL. This has the makings of a lost season for Las Vegas.
The Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
The reigning Super Bowl champs still have the best quarterback and offensive coach in the world. It’s tempting to pick a really talented Chargers team or even go with the post-hype sleeper Broncos, but let’s not overthink it. It will take a really special season for someone to dethrone the Chiefs in the AFC West.
Wild Card: Denver Broncos
As I mentioned before, the Broncos’ range of outcomes may be the widest in the NFL. The talent is certainly there, and we’ve seen their players – and their new coach – experience success, just not together. If it all comes together, Denver could have one of the most well-rounded teams. Or it could end up being closer to what we saw last season when dysfunction and inconsistency reigned king.
