Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Fantasy football analysis is extremely fluid.
And it has to be.
Over the course of an offseason, so much changes that it would be foolish to not make any adjustments. So with the preseason in the books and the start of the 2023 NFL season just days away, here are some players who have moved up or down in my rankings as of late.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
Earlier in the offseason, I had Jaylen Waddle closer to WR15 than WR10. But the more I dove into his usage last season, the more excited I became. The presence of Mike McDaniel changed this entire Miami offense a year ago. Instead of trying to fix a struggling run game, McDaniel leaned on the team’s strengths, which was throwing the football to two elite receivers. The Dolphins finished eighth in the league in neutral script pass rate (59.8%) and ninth in passing rate on early downs (55.9%). And the Dolphins didn’t take their foot off the gas when they were ahead. They led by eight-plus points for 153 plays last season, sporting the league’s second-highest pass rate in those situations at 59.4%. Miami ultimately finished the year seventh in pass rate over expected, as they relied on their explosive passing attack for much of the season.
Waddle’s usage also changed for the better. During his rookie season in 2021, Waddle was used close to the line of scrimmage. He posted the league’s 14th-lowest yards before the catch per reception (5.5) and 15th-lowest average depth of target (7.0 yards). However, that role changed during his sophomore season, as Waddle’s yards before the catch per reception climbed to 11.3, while his aDOT jumped to 12.1. Waddle paced the NFL in yards per reception (18.1) and yards per target (11.7) en route to a 75/1,356/8 stat line. You love to see that and the only thing I want to see next is just a few more schemed touches for Waddle like Miami designed for Tyreek Hill. According to Sports Info Solutions, Hill ranked second in the league in both targets (33) and routes (34) from pre-snap motion last season, while Waddle saw just four such targets. Still, I love the offense, the player is outstanding and given the encouraging change in usage last season, I actually moved him ahead of Garrett Wilson for the 2023 campaign.
Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Right after this year’s NFL Draft, I was actually pretty excited about Najee Harris. The Steelers upgraded their run-blocking by drafting both Broderick Jones and Darnell Washington. And despite the excitement surrounding Jaylen Warren, we know the Steelers always use one running back, right? Right?
Not so fast.
The preseason has not been kind to Harris. Pittsburgh has essentially split snaps between Harris and Warren, with Warren still playing plenty of third downs, which was a concern for Harris in 2022. In fact, according to FTN Data, Warren was on the field for 52% of Pittsburgh’s third downs last season, while Harris only played around 40%. Harris, who has the most touches in the entire league over the past two seasons, has struggled with efficiency. It isn’t an issue if the volume remains so high but once that volume comes down, it becomes a problem. And it appears Harris’ days of playing 85-90% of the snaps and handling 22-25 touches per game are over, especially considering how good Warren has been whenever the Steelers put him in the game. Warren averaged 4.9 yards per carry and 3.08 yards after contact per rush on 77 carries. And in the passing game, Warren was reliable, averaging 6.5 yards per target.
Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Commanders
Washington bringing in Eric Bieniemy has me very excited about the Commanders finally getting the best out of Antonio Gibson. A huge part of this Kansas City passing game over the years has come through the screen game, which is something Bieniemy is going to carry over to Washington. After ranking second in the league in pass attempts off screens in 2021 (89), Mahomes finished fourth in that department this past season (83). He was also fourth in the league in pass attempts behind the line of scrimmage with 109. And according to FTN Data, screens made up 11.7% of Mahomes’ targeted routes last year, good for the eighth-highest rate in the league. Mahomes has ranked top-five among quarterbacks in screen attempts in three-of-five seasons with Bieniemy as the offensive coordinator. This past season in Washington, Scott Turner almost had two different offenses at times. With Carson Wentz under center, the Commanders utilized the screen game a lot more, as Wentz’s 12.1% screen dropback rate was the 12th-highest rate in the league, while 10.9% of his target routes were screens, the 10th-highest rate. However, things changed a bit with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback, as his screen dropback rate sat at 8.6%, which ranked 26th among qualified signal callers. And per FTN Data, just 6.8% of his targeted routes were screens, which ranked 24th in the league.
An expected boost in screen passes could do wonders for Antonio Gibson, who may or may not be Christian McCaffrey in the eyes of Ron Rivera. And despite an underwhelming 2022 season, the drumbeat continues for Gibson this offseason, as Rivera said he could be a “matchup nightmare for opponents” in Washington’s new offense. It shouldn’t surprise anyone. Gibson essentially played slot wide receiver in Memphis, but Turner was inconsistent with his usage of Gibson in the passing game. Last year, Gibson lined up either from the slot or out wide just 64 total times, which was improved from his 47 such snaps in 2021 but still not enough. And while Gibson underwhelmed in the run game, he remained efficient in the passing game, ranking 11th among qualified running backs in yards per route run (1.48), ninth in missed tackles forced (12) and 12th in yards per reception (7.7).
It also wouldn’t shock me to see Washington run plenty of designed screens for Gibson and the running backs in the red zone. We just watched Jerick McKinnon rank second among all running backs in both red zone targets (16) and targets from inside the 10-yard line (11). He ultimately finished the season with nine receiving touchdowns on 56 receptions, as 28% of his targets came off screens. And because I expect Washington to run a lot of shotgun formations this season (more on that later), Bieniemy can flex Gibson out and line up in empty, creating some of those advantageous matchups that Rivera alluded to.
Darren Waller, TE, New York Giants
It is difficult to not become more excited about Darren Waller after the preseason. Throughout Giants camp, all we saw was Daniel Jones hyper-targeting Waller. And during his first game with the Giants in the preseason, Waller played 8-of-10 snaps with the first team, ran eight routes and saw four targets. He caught three passes for 30 yards in just one drive and while I began the offseason with Waller ranked behind Dallas Goedert, Kyle Pitts and George Kittle, the veteran tight end has now passed all three tight ends. While I don’t believe he’s as good of a player as Goedert, Pitts or Kittle, I do think there is a safer combination of floor and ceiling given the target share he should see. I think he’ll be more consistent than Kittle, while having more touchdown upside than Goedert, who has just four total end zone targets over the past two seasons.
