Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Every year, we see rookies make their mark on the fantasy football landscape. Often, these guys are some of the bigger names of their respective classes, like Breece Hall or Kenneth Walker last season. However, unlike last year, we have some high-end rookies at running back in Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs. Robinson will almost certainly be a first-round pick in 1QB leagues, and Gibbs isn’t going to get out of the early rounds.
However, you don’t have to be a high-profile rookie to make a fantasy football impact. Dameon Pierce wasn’t a priority fantasy target last season and went on to be a rock-solid option. Likewise, Tyler Allgeier went largely overlooked in fantasy draft season and ended up being a big factor in the fantasy playoffs.
Who are the top candidates to be this year’s rookie fantasy football sleepers? Here are the five rookie sleepers I love in 2023 redraft fantasy football leagues.
Note: I’m excluding all rookies selected in the first round of this year’s draft.
Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks
While his landing spot may not have been optimal for fantasy purposes, there’s still a lot to like about Zach Charbonnet. Powerful and physical, Charbonnet has the size and strength to succeed in the NFL. He’s a north/south runner with plus-level contact balance and the ability to force missed tackles with decisive cuts. While not elite in the passing game, he has enough chops in that area to work as a three-down back if given the opportunity.
Of course, landing in Seattle essentially pins Charbonnet behind Kenneth Walker on the depth chart to start out the season. To be fair, Seattle backs haven’t been the picture of health in recent seasons, but he’ll be positioned as a handcuff-plus initially. Having said that, he’ll get an opportunity to contribute immediately in Seattle’s run-centric offense. Charbonnet is a high-upside scratch-off lottery ticket.
Jonathan Mingo, WR Carolina Panthers
Cut from the same cloth as Deebo Samuel, Jonathan Mingo is a yoked-up receiver who is built like a brick house. He’s an effective route runner who can use his physicality to win against defenders and rack up extra yards after catch with ease. He isn’t the fastest receiver, but he makes up for that with his ability to consistently win contested catches. Like Samuel, he turns into a running back with the ball in his hands.
In Carolina, Mingo has the opportunity to contribute right out of the gate. As an athletic tweener, Mingo presents a reliable target for Bryce Young in the short and intermediate areas of the field. Of course, it could be a bumpy road for the Panthers early on as Young gets his legs underneath him. However, Mingo’s skillset pairs well with what Young does well. Mingo will have to beat out either DJ Chark or Terrace Marshall to get on the field, but recent history suggests that isn’t a particularly difficult task.
Roschon Johnson, RB Chicago Bears
He played behind Bijan Robinson at Texas, but don’t underestimate Roschon Johnson. He’s big and athletic with impressive balance, patience and vision. While he doesn’t come with much wiggle, Johnson is decisive when he puts his foot in the ground. He also uses his size to break tackles and create yards after first contact. He’s also better than many realize as a receiver. Sure, he wasn’t the lead back at Texas, but he has the profile to be one in the NFL.
Robinson joins a crowded house in the Bears’ backfield with Khalil Herbert and D’Onta Foreman also in place. However, of those three players, he’s decidedly the best pass catcher. That means opportunities should come immediately with room to grow. Initially, look for the Bears to use a three-headed approach. But Johnson has the ability to seize a larger role in this backfield. If you draft him, patience will be key. He has the look of a late-season breakout candidate.
Sam LaPorta, TE Detroit Lions
The next in a long line of Iowa tight ends to make the jump to the NFL, Sam LaPorta is a traditional in-line option who is also capable out of the slot and can run routes to all levels of the field. He has soft hands and is one of the better tight ends in this class at creating after the catch. While he isn’t as dynamic as fellow former Hawkeyes George Kittle or T.J. Hockenson, he still has potential as a higher volume pass catcher in the NFL.
In Detroit, LaPorta will get an opportunity to fill Hockenson’s shoes. After trading Hockenson to the Vikings last season, the Lions were generally devoid of talent at the position. That means LaPorta is a strong bet to lead the Detroit tight ends in targets right out of the gate. To be fair, rookie tight ends tend to underwhelm for fantasy purposes, but LaPorta is very much on the TE2 radar from the jump.
De’Von Achane, RB Miami Dolphins
Electric. De’Von Achane has elite speed and is a threat to score any time he touches the ball. His video game-esque stop/start ability and creativity make him a big play waiting to happen. In the passing game he’s just too quick for most linebackers to cover. Of course, the biggest concern with Achane is his size, or lack thereof. He’s extremely small for the NFL, and his role could be limited as a result.
That size profile makes him one of the most unique players in this year’s class. Achane just doesn’t fit the mold of a traditional fantasy football running back. At the same time, he’s an electric playmaker with a Bo-Jackson-Tecmo-Bowl-esque ability to avoid defenders. He also landed in an offense that is ready, willing, and able to leverage his unique talents. Achane doesn’t figure to be the most consistent option in this class, but his high ceiling and perfect fit in Mike McDaniel’s scheme. His massive upside makes him an intriguing fantasy name to know in 2023.
