Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
This is one of the closest matchups of the entire Fantasy Crossroads series.
Expectations are sky high for both Chris Olave and Drake London in 2024. Both wideouts are entering their third NFL season, and while Olave has put together consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to start his career, London has yet to accomplish that feat. Will a new quarterback and offense finally push London into the elite tier of fantasy wide receivers? And will Olave, after showcasing his floor for two years, show his true ceiling in 2024?
Let’s find out.
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
The Case for Olave
Olave’s NFL career has kicked off with a pair of 1,000-yard seasons through two years. Since entering the league in 2022, Olave ranks 16th in receptions, 15th in targets and 17th in receiving yards, operating as the WR1 in New Orleans. He has posted target shares north of 25% in both seasons and was once again productive last year, hauling in 87 passes for 1,123 yards and five touchdowns en route to a WR16 finish. You’ll take that production, but it is entirely possible we have only seen Olave’s floor through his first two seasons. Why?
Because the Saints offense has been holding him back.
It is no secret (or shock) that the Saints offense has taken a step back since the end of the Drew Brees/Sean Payton era. But lately, this unit has been especially stale. I’m talking about “super old bag of chips that might seem edible at first but ultimately aren’t worth it” stale. This past season, the Saints lacked any sort of creativity with how they used Olave in their offense. You could make the case that no top wide receiver in football was utilized worse than Olave. For starters, the routes Olave was asked to run didn’t present many layup opportunities. Go routes consisted of nearly 30% of his routes in 2023, and his 20 targets off the play type were the ninth most in football. Plenty of fantasy points were left on the field, too, as Olave saw just nine catchable targets off go routes, while his overall catchable air yard rate of 50.7% ranked 16th-worst among all wideouts with at least 50 targets. There was also very little movement in the Saints offense, as New Orleans ranked 31st in pre-snap motion rate, according to FTN Data (29.3%). In particular, Olave was in motion pre-snap just over nine percent of the time, while seeing just three total targets following pre-snap motion.
It’s time for a change.
The Saints hired Klint Kubiak as the team’s offensive coordinator this offseason, so (hopefully) this offense will look much different in 2024. Kubiak was the pass game coordinator in San Francisco last year and was last a playcaller in 2021 with the Vikings. We know the 49ers use as much motion as anyone and I expect Kubak to bring some elements of that passing attack with him to New Orleans. Olave will see more free release off the line of scrimmage due to more movement and versatility in his alignment, while more layups will be schemed up for the Saints best pass-catcher. And he should continue to see immense volume. Olave saw at least eight targets in 11 games this season, while seeing double-digit looks in five. This is going to be a very concentrated offense, as Olave really only has to compete with Alvin Kamara and Rashid Shaheed for targets.
The Case Against Olave
If the Saints were going into the 2024 season with the same offensive scheme, that would be the case against Olave. But I do expect the most fantasy-friendly usage of his career in Kubiak’s system. The floor should be rock solid for Olave, but one of the other reasons we haven’t seen that top-10 ceiling is the lack of touchdowns. Olave has just nine touchdowns through two seasons, with just 16 end zone targets. The Saints often run the ball inside the red zone, whether it is with Kamara, Jamaal Williams or even Taysom Hill, who will undoubtedly vulture a handful of touchdowns this season.
Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
The Case for London
Like Olave, London is also entering his third NFL season. However, with him, the 2024 hype is much more of a projection. London has yet to reach the 1,000-yard mark in a season, scoring just six total touchdowns. He hasn’t reached 11 PPR points per game yet either. That said, while Olave’s situation has been less than ideal, London’s has been much worse. Poor quarterback play and awful schemes have held London back through his first two years. But entering the 2024 campaign, his arrow is pointing up.
Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder are out; Raheem Morris, Zac Robinson and Kirk Cousins are in. Cousins is one of the better signal callers in the league and consistently produces 4,000 yards and 30-plus touchdowns. In fact, he’s reached at least 4,200 yards and 30 touchdowns in each of his last three healthy seasons. And as my colleague Scott Spratt points out, this entire offense should see accurate passes from Cousins.
Atlanta should also have a much more fantasy-friendly scheme with Robinson coming over from the Rams. Gone are the days of a 49.1% neutral-script rush rate (second in the NFL last year), and the Falcons also ranked second in rush rate when trailing by eight or more points in 2023 (41.3%). Robinson should open up the offense a lot more, using way more 11 personnel and creating easier targets for London. According to FTN Data, London posted a tight coverage rate of 40% last year, the fifth-highest rate in the league. Still just 22 years old, London has the talent, and finally the situation, to emerge as a top-12 fantasy wide receiver.
The Case Against London
The only real argument against London is the fact that we haven’t seen him have a great season in his career, yet his average draft position has climbed to the second round. And don’t get me wrong. The hype, at least to me, is absolutely warranted. So yes, it is a lot more of a projection with London, while he probably does have to compete for targets more than Olave does. And while I do think Cousins will be fine, he is, after all, a 36-year-old quarterback coming off an Achilles tear.
The Verdict: Chris Olave
I have gone back and forth between these two wideouts all offseason, and I believe I have finally come to a decision. While I am certainly more excited about the prospects of Atlanta’s offense, I do think Olave projects for more targets this season. And given how productive he’s been to start his career, I am excited to see Olave finally utilized like a true top tier wideout in an offense that will be far more creative than they have been. This is so close that if you want to give London the edge simply due to quarterback play, I totally get it.
