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The NFL offseason is like an exercise in the Butterfly Effect. Three teams chase Player A, Team 1 lands him, so Teams 2 and 3 chase Player B and Alternative X, Team 2 gets that, so Team 3 chases Player H and Alternative Q. But if Team 3 had landed Player A, then Team 1’s pivot might have been different, which would have changed things for Team 6, which would have had Player G going to …
It’s complicated. You get it.
Predicting how this particular Butterfly Effect will shake out is a fool’s errand, but trying to predict it is a nice exercise to get your brain prepared for the moves to come in the offseason. It’s not as simple as identifying every team that needs a receiver and saying “OK, the dream is for them to sign Tee Higgins.” There are a lot of teams that need receivers. There is one Tee Higgins. So you have to consider who can afford what, who will have the biggest desires, and what matches there are. And every move has a knock-on effect that affects the others.
So Tuesday and today, I’m looking ahead at the NFL offseason — to free agency, trades and the draft — and trying to complete the jigsaw puzzle. There’s obviously a fair amount of fan fiction here, because no one can predict the entire offseason, but it’s a good way to set the stage for what might come over the next few months.
In this exercise last year, we pegged the Cardinals drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey Benson, the Saints drafting Spencer Rattler as a wild card. We had the Colts, Texans and Buccaneers re-signing Michael Pittman Jr., Dalton Schultz and Baker Mayfield, respectively. We had the Bears drafting Caleb Williams and the Commanders, Patriots, Broncos and Vikings drafting rookie quarterbacks (though we got those four teams all mixed up). The point isn’t necessarily to get it right (but yay when we do!), the point is to identify who is most likely to target a certain spot in the offseason and how that might look.
This is fantasy-minded, so no defensive moves. You won’t find Myles Garrett’s new home here. But skill players and O-linemen who might help a team’s fantasy outlook? Let’s go.
NFC today, AFC was Tuesday.
Fantasy Football Offseason Wish List: NFC
Arizona Cardinals
Sign Will Fries
The Cardinals could probably use another receiver, though the Trey McBride/Marvin Harrison Jr. duo is plenty strong. They could probably use another running back, unless Trey Benson can develop. Really, the weaponry is set, beyond luxury pieces. What is not set? The line. The tackles are set, but the guards are a question, with Evan Brown hitting free agency and Isaiah Adams starting only five games as a third-round rookie. Fries, who started 31 games in four years after being a seventh-round pick for Indianapolis in 2021, could get things settled.
Atlanta Falcons
Sign Stefon Diggs
![HOUSTON, TX - AUGUST 17: New York Giants linebacker Brian Burns (0) dives to tackle Houston Texans wide receiver Stefon Diggs (1) in the first quarter during the NFL preseason game between the New York Giants and Houston Texans on August 17, 2024 at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire)](https://dmxvtdt4jwgem.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Stefon-Diggs-Texans.jpg)
Diggs tore his ACL in Week 8 last year, meaning his 2025 season will be abbreviated at best. At 31 (32 in November), he doesn’t need to sign anywhere that will be relying on him to be a big-time contributor. But in Atlanta, he could be a luxury bonus late in the year for a team that will spend most of the season relying on Drake London, Darnell Mooney and RB Bijan Robinson. And the team could likely use another receiving weapon, given …
Trade Kyle Pitts to the Colts for 4.116 and 6.191
The door isn’t all the way closed on Kyle Pitts being the productive professional we thought he was coming out of college and after his first year, but it might be closed on him doing so in Atlanta. He needs a fresh start somewhere else, and the Falcons need to get rid of that storyline and add some depth picks.
Cut Kirk Cousins
Cousins might be done and he might not. But he won’t be starting in Atlanta in 2025, and keeping him around as the backup to Michael Penix Jr. is just asking for QB controversy the first time Penix struggles. Commit to the 2024 rookie. If there’s a trade to be found for Cousins, by all means do it, but either way, he needs to find his next act elsewhere.
Carolina Panthers
Draft WR Luther Burden III (1.08)
Adam Thielen has been better than anyone could have expected in Carolina, and I’m officially done counting him out. But he doesn’t need to be a team’s No. 1 receiver at age 35. Burden had a dominant 2023 season before sliding a little in 2024, but he still shapes up to be an early draft pick and an immediate WR1 wherever he lands. Let him anchor this receiver room.
Draft TE Gunnar Helm (3.74)
The Panthers can’t devote all their attention to the offense this offseason given the state of the defense. So maybe putting two of their three picks in Rounds 1-3 on offense is overkill. But adding Burden and Helm to this offense would be a boon to Bryce Young, who might have salvaged his career down the stretch last year but still could use the help.
Chicago Bears
Sign Trey Smith and Ryan Kelly
If the Bears don’t prioritize the offensive line to an extent never seen before this offseason, I know several Chicago fans who will march on Soldier Field. This team absolutely has to protect Caleb Williams, and it has more than enough cap space to do so. Sign every lineman you can find.
Draft WR Tez Johnson (3.72)
The Bears don’t need to trip over themselves to add receiving help this offseason, but with Keenan Allen hitting free agency and DJ Moore 28 when the season starts, it might not be a bad idea to look down the road, especially for a slot option. Johnson might not be the best receiver in this year’s draft class, but he might be the best from the slot.
Dallas Cowboys
Draft WR Emeka Egbuka (1.12)
![ATLANTA, GA - JANUARY 20: Wide Receiver Emeka Egbuka #2 of the Ohio State Buckeyes runs with the ball after a reception during the Ohio State Buckeyes versus Notre Dame Fighting Irish College Football Playoff National Championship game on January 20, 2025, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)](https://dmxvtdt4jwgem.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Emeka-Egbuka.jpg)
The masses have Dallas connected with Ashton Jeanty in the first round, and maybe that’s where Jerry Jones ends up going, but it’s easier to find RB help than a high-end receiver like Egbuka has the chance of being. He was perpetually the WR2 in Columbus, and he could be the same in Dallas and take some of the weight off CeeDee Lamb’s shoulders.
Sign Tyron Smith
Smith once again missed time in 2024, his first year out of Dallas. The Cowboys have a history of bringing a player back after him spending time elsewhere, and while Smith will probably never again be a full-time player, he can still be the most trusted part of this line.
Re-sign Rico Dowdle
Draft RB Quinshon Judkins (3.76)
Dowdle popped in 2024, his fifth year in the league. The Cowboys’ loyalty means he’s a big candidate to be kept around. But he shouldn’t be the only game in town, which brings Judkins to Dallas after a year in Columbus. That backfield duo could be a very productive pairing.
Detroit Lions
Re-sign Kevin Zeitler
The Lions can’t afford to let their elite offensive line deteriorate, and Zeitler is the only piece heading into free agency. Loathe as I am to recommend “whatever worked before will keep working, keep it together,” it makes sense in Detroit, where Zeitler can continue his quest for a ring (he’s made the playoffs seven times but only gone as far as the Conference Championships once) and maintain a strong running game.
Sign Mike Williams
The Lions don’t really need much in terms of weaponry. Sonic and Knuckles, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta … things are good. But they could use a contested-catch specialist who can go up and get the ball in the end zone, and while Williams doesn’t have all the skills he did early in his career, he can still do that. And at this point, he’s likely to come for very little money as he looks to rebuild value.
Green Bay Packers
Trade 2.54, 3.87 and a 2026 second-rounder to the Jets for Garrett Wilson
Call this the Josh Jacobs special, after Jacobs visited the Super Bowl and said how much the team needs a true WR1, particularly with Christian Watson due to miss some or all of the season after an ACL tear. Enter the Jets, who as I noted in the AFC half of things need a hard reset. Wilson could go from playing with Davante Adams to being the new Davante Adams in Green Bay.
Draft T Grey Zabel (1.23)
I don’t know how much stock teams put in drafting players who played college near them vs. how much of that is us just remembering when it happens and dismissing when it doesn’t, but then the Packers did just take Watson out of North Dakota State a few years ago. Maybe they venture up there again in taking Zabel, who could bolster a line that is still good but isn’t as good as it was a few years ago.
Los Angeles Rams
Trade Cooper Kupp and 6.192 to the Bengals for 3.81 and 5.154
There was a big part of me that wanted to envision a “Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford to the Giants” trade, inspired by Malik Nabers, but it’s extremely hard to build a scenario where that makes sense for the Rams beyond “Sean McVay wants a challenge.” So instead, the Rams do the inevitable and send Kupp away to the Bengals for a bit of draft stock.
Sign Keenan Allen
![CHICAGO, IL - SEPTEMBER 29: Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen (13) during the first half against the Los Angeles Rams on September 29, 2024 at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire)](https://dmxvtdt4jwgem.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Keenan-Allen.jpg)
Kupp’s departure clears the way for Puka Nacua to soak up approximately 4 bajillion targets, and Jordan Whittington can slide in as the No. 2. But a reliable veteran receiver would help anchor things in Los Angeles, and Allen is not likely to command anything like the $18 million he earned last year at age 33. On a low-guarantee one-year deal, it makes sense to see how much Allen has left, even if you’d want more insurance for the short-area targets, which is why they also …
Draft TE Tyler Warren (1.26)
There’s a chance this is too far for Warren to fall, in which case they might need to settle for Colston Loveland (or possibly trade up to get Warren?). Either way, the Rams have not had a tight end top 100 PPR points in a season other than Tyler Higbee since 2016, and Higbee is now 32 and entering the last year of his deal. Get the team’s next (first?) franchise tight end.
Sign Zach Wilson
Draft QB Quinn Ewers (3.90)
Even if Stafford is sticking around in Los Angeles, the backup situation is rough at best. The only other quarterback under contract for 2025 is Stetson Bennett, about whom NBC Sports said in November, “At this point, it’s fair to wonder if 2023 fourth-rounder Bennett will ever appear in an NFL game.” The Rams don’t need to splurge, but getting some insurance policies in place would be wise. Wilson could be the latest veteran QB reclamation project (and he’s been rumored to be linked to the Rams in the past), while Ewers was originally destined to be an early first-rounder before some of the bloom came off the rose. In both cases, McVay is the kind of coach who could coax performance out of those types.
Minnesota Vikings
Tag Sam Darnold (or Extend Him)
The Vikings have J.J. McCarthy to play quarterback in 2025 … probably. But he was a raw prospect entering the league and just missed his rookie year to a knee injury. Going into the season with just McCarthy and some replaceable backup is asking for trouble. Giving Darnold a starter-level contract is a waste of funds, but one year on the franchise tag as a playable insurance policy is worth stomaching for the team with the seventh-most cap space.
Sign Najee Harris
Draft TreVeyon Henderson (3.97)
![PHILADELPHIA, PA - AUGUST 12: Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris (22) is upended by Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Steven Nelson (3) during the preseason game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Pittsburgh Steelers on August 12, 2021 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire)](https://dmxvtdt4jwgem.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Najee-Harris-1.jpg)
With only two picks in the first four rounds (and four picks total) in this year’s draft, I would be open to the idea that drafting a running back is a luxury the Vikings don’t have. But with Aaron Jones Sr. hitting free agency, a Harris/Henderson combination could work for them in the same way Henderson and Quinshon Judkins worked for Ohio State. Harris won’t blow anyone away, but he doesn’t miss time (has played all 17 games all four years in the NFL) and will get what is blocked for him, while Henderson is explosive but has more of an injury history, so pairing him with the reliable Harris would be a way to keep him on the field.
New Orleans Saints
Trade Chris Olave to the Patriots for 2.38, 5.145 and 7.240
The Saints pretty badly need to blow things up. The problem? They kind of can’t. Releasing Derek Carr would leave them with over a $50 million dead cap hit, and designating him as a post-June 1 cut would leave them with no room to make any other moves. It’s hard to get out from under Carr. But they also can’t win with him, and trying to would only waste what other resources they have. So jump start the rebuild another way by dealing Olave for a draft haul that would give New Orleans 11 picks in this year’s draft. He’s never going to be on a good Saints team either way.
Draft QB Dillon Gabriel (2.40)
Even if the Saints can’t move on from Carr (yet), nothing in 2024 made it look like Spencer Rattler and/or Jake Haener could be the future in New Orleans. The team can’t get any of the top quarterbacks in this year’s draft, but take a shot on Gabriel and groom him for the future … which could come soon if the Saints decide to bench Carr even if he stays on the roster.
New York Giants
Sign Jameis Winston
![PHILADELPHIA, PA - OCTOBER 13: Cleveland Browns quarterback Jameis Winston (5) with Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Zack Baun (53) after the game between the Cleveland Browns and Philadelphia Eagles on October 13, 2024 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire)](https://dmxvtdt4jwgem.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Jameis-Winston.jpg)
This is boring (even if Winston himself isn’t). But … it’s hard to find good fits for the Giants. Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy Jr. can be the lead weapons with no additions. Devin Singletary and Wan’Dale Robinson are still under reasonable contracts. The team just spent a fourth-round pick on a tight end (Theo Johnson) a year ago. The team absolutely needs a better offensive line, but it even more badly needs a quarterback, and it needs one that can make them respectable without making them good enough to take them out of the running for a quarterback in next year’s draft. That’s the definition of Jameis Winston at this point in his career. He’ll make mistakes. He’ll lose games. But he’ll give Nabers so many yards that fantasy managers will drool.
Philadelphia Eagles
Draft T Josh Conerly Jr. (1.32)
The Eagles don’t really have much in the way of dramatic needs at this point. Maybe a better WR3 would help, but it’s not like they throw enough for the No. 5 pass option to be worth investing in anyway. But the line has started to display a few holes, and some of the top linemen are getting old anyway. Toss a first-rounder at one of the top tackles in this year’s class can help keep it near the top.
Trade 5.162 to the Raiders for Michael Mayer
![MIAMI GARDENS, FL - NOVEMBER 19: Las Vegas Raiders tight end Michael Mayer (87) runs after a catch as Miami Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard (25) tries to tackle him during the game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, November 19, 2023 at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, Fla. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire)](https://dmxvtdt4jwgem.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Michael-Mayer.jpg)
Dallas Goedert has played seven years in the NFL. The only season he’s played in every game was his rookie year, when he was primarily the backup to Zach Ertz. He’s very good, but he is also very brittle. And no shade to Grant Calcaterra, but the Eagles could use a higher-upside backup, particularly someone like Mayer, a good blocker who was a second-round pick in 2023 but has basically lost his place in Las Vegas.
San Francisco 49ers
Trade Deebo Samuel Sr. to the Commanders for 5.148 and a 2026 fourth-rounder
Samuel is 29 and coming off maybe his worst season, and while he could be a free agent after this season, he has four void years on his deal that would make whoever employs him stuck with a lot of money to pay. That’s going to hurt the return on any trade. But he’s still the guy who had 1,770 scrimmage yards in 2021, who has gone over 1,000 with 12-plus touchdowns twice in four years. He can still help a team. But with the 49ers having Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall, that team probably isn’t San Francisco.
Draft T Will Campbell (1.11)
The 49ers can’t exactly count on Trent Williams being the anchor of a line that is otherwise underwhelming forever, and with the future Hall-of-Famer turning 37 this summer and coming off a season with seven missed games, it’s past time to look for reinforcements. The best tackle in this year’s draft is a heck of a start.
Seattle Seahawks
Trade DK Metcalf to the Bills for 2.62 and 4.131
Draft WR Matthew Golden (1.18)
The Seahawks need to get their payroll in line, and getting rid of Tyler Lockett (which feels inevitable and isn’t even on this list) isn’t enough. Dealing Geno Smith is a possibility, but then there’s a whole new problem to deal with. But given Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s breakout last year and that DK Metcalf has kind of stagnated since his first few years, his departure could help the Seahawks get the financials going in the right direction, and drafting Golden to be the new No. 2 would offset the loss.
Sign James Daniels
Seattle needs to improve the offensive line in a bad way, particularly on the interior, and while Daniels only played four games last year, he played 49 of 51 in the three preceding years and is still an above-average guard. It’s not the only piece the Seahawks need to add to the line this offseason, but it’s a good one.
Draft Will Howard (3.82)
Howard boosted his draft stock in a big way in the Buckeye’s title run, but he’s still not seen as a difference-maker in the NFL. The Seahawks taking him on Day 2 wouldn’t be with an eye on him starting right away, if ever, but it would be a nice insurance policy if there’s a great deal for Geno Smith out there and/or they just start the rebuild.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sign Marquise Brown
This exercise has Chris Godwin leaving Tampa for Tennessee. The Bucs have a good line, a strong backfield duo, a surging quarterback, and in Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan the start of a more-than-acceptable receiver room, but they could use a real speed element. Evans is the strong, do-it-all type, and McMillan is a slot merchant, so adding Brown’s speed to this room would help cover all their bases.
Washington Commanders
Trade 5.148 and a 2026 fourth-rounder to the 49ers for Deebo Samuel Sr.
![MIAMI GARDENS, FL - FEBRUARY 02: San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel (19) in game action during the Super Bowl LIV game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers on February 2, 2020 at Hard Rock Stadium, in Miami Gardens, FL. (Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire)](https://dmxvtdt4jwgem.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Deebo-Samuel.jpg)
No team trading for Samuel at this point should do so with an eye on needing him to be his 2021 self again. He needs to be a luxury piece for an offense that has most of its other pieces in place. And after the Jayden Daniels/Terry McLaurin duo helped get the team all the way to the NFC Conference Championship this past season, the Commanders fit that nicely. The offense is good enough to make a run regardless, but if the team adds Samuel and he can even resemble his past self, it can take another step, especially if it’s paired with…
Re-sign Zach Ertz
Ertz had a resurgent year in 2024, playing every game, gaining 654 yards and scoring 7 touchdowns, his most since 8 in 2018. He’s not done, but he’s also turning 35 in November and doesn’t need to be the anchor for anyone’s offense. So he should stick around in Washington, where he reportedly loves it and they know him well, and he can be the steady force as 2024 rookie Ben Sinnott develops. Win all around.