Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
I spent many summers with my family down at the shore.
There was always one day, once a year, where my uncle, his sons and I would erupt into loud arguments on the public beach in Beach Haven, N.J. The center of the argument was something all NFL fans do at barbecues, birthday parties or even by themselves late at night.
We project our favorite NFL win totals for the upcoming season.
So, instead of aimlessly yelling “WIN,” “LOSS,” or “TOUGH GAME” in the middle of a crowded beach surrounded by thoroughly annoyed families, I’ve decided to bring that practice to FTN Fantasy. Here is the fifth of my eight-part series where I project every team’s win total for the upcoming season. We already previewed the AFC East, AFC North, AFC South, and AFC West. Today, let’s project the NFC East.
(All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.)
2024 NFC East Win/Loss Predictions
Dallas Cowboys
2023 Record: 12-5
2024 Projected Win Total: 9.5
Week 1 (at Cleveland, Loss): I have concerns about Deshaun Watson as quarterback, but Browns defense pressures Dak Prescott enough to earn Week 1 victory.
Week 2 (New Orleans, Win): Saints struggle mightily at Dallas.
Week 3 (Baltimore, Win): Cowboys offense always strong at home. Defense plays well.
Week 4 (at NY Giants, Loss): Cowboys have won six straight against the Giants and 13 of the last 14. That streak ends here.
Week 5 (at Pittsburgh, Win): Steelers always play well as underdog, Cowboys just 10-9 ATS against nonconference opponents since 2020.
Week 6 (Detroit, Loss): Lions exact revenge for chaotic loss in Week 17 last season.
Week 7: Bye
Week 8 (at San Francisco, Loss): After a slow start, San Francisco returns to elite form.
Week 9 (at Atlanta, Loss): Surprising road losses always haunt head coach Mike McCarthy. This is the one for 2024.
Week 10 (Philadelphia, Win): Dallas stops three-game losing streak at home to rival Eagles.
Week 11 (Houston, Win): Cowboys win intrastate rivalry matchup.
Week 12 (at Washington, Loss): Two embarrassing losses by Washington last season. Commanders earn home victory.
Week 13 (NY Giants, Win): Split with Giants.
Week 14 (Cincinnati, Win): Cowboys offense outscores Bengals at home.
Week 15 (at Carolina, Loss): Panthers defense and development of Jonathon Brooks after his injury earns home upset for Carolina.
Week 16 (Tampa Bay, Win): Easy win for Dallas.
Week 17 (at Philadelphia, Loss): Eagles revenge spot.
Week 18 (Washington, Win): Dallas wins season finale with playoffs still possible.
Cowboys Final Record: 9-8
Cowboys regress with poor rushing attack and substandard offensive line. Opportunistic defense gets exposed and Cowboys miss playoffs.
Philadelphia Eagles
2023 Record: 11-6
2024 Projected Win Total: 10.5
Week 1 (Green Bay, Loss): Green Bay wins battle in Brazil.
Week 2 (Atlanta, Win): Eagles avoid 0-2 start.
Week 3 (at New Orleans, Win): Saints can’t stop Philadelphia attack.
Week 4 (at Tampa Bay, Loss): Buccaneers won in playoffs and have no fear of Eagles.
Week 5: Bye
Week 6 (Cleveland, Win): Eagles blast Browns on their third-straight road contest.
Week 7 (at NY Giants, Loss): Giants pull upset over division rival. New York has won three of the last four at home against the Eagles.
Week 8 (at Cincinnati, Win): Cincinnati allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Week 9 (Jacksonville, Win): Jacksonville suffers two-game losing skid on road in a tough Philadelphia environment.
Week 10 (at Dallas, Loss): Dallas stops three-game losing streak at home to rival Eagles.
Week 11 (Washington, Win): Close battle goes to Eagles.
Week 12 (at LA Rams, Loss): Rams outscore Eagles at home with superior passing attack.
Week 13 (at Baltimore, Loss): Home field makes a huge difference here.
Week 14 (Carolina, Win): Closer than expected, but Eagles get victory.
Week 15 (Pittsburgh, Win): Eagles win at home.
Week 16 (at Washington, Loss): Commanders play Eagles well and win at home.
Week 17 (Dallas, Win): Split with Cowboys.
Week 18 (NY Giants, Win): Payback at home.
Eagles Final Record: 10-7
Eagles earn playoff berth but get edged out by surprise Commanders for NFC East crown.
Washington Commanders
2023 Record: 4-13
2024 Projected Win Total: 6.5
Week 1 (at Tampa Bay, Win): Commanders start season with impressive road win.
Week 2 (NY Giants, Win): Jayden Daniels causes the Giants defense a ton of problems.
Week 3 (at Cincinnati, Loss): Commanders pass defense struggles on road.
Week 4 (at Arizona, Win): Arizona defense cannot stop Washington two-headed running back duo of Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler.
Week 5 (Cleveland, Win): Cleveland’s offensive struggles get exposed by pressure defense of Dan Quinn. Browns were fifth worst in offensive DVOA per Aaron Schatz. Third road game in four weeks.
Week 6 (at Baltimore, Win): Commanders pull road upset behind versatile Jayden Daniels and speed of Terry McLaurin.
Week 7 (Carolina, Win): Home win for Commanders against improved Carolina team.
Week 8 (Chicago, Win): Season-high fifth-straight win for Washington.
Week 9 (at NY Giants, Loss): Rivalry loss. Close game.
Week 10 (Pittsburgh, Loss): Fresh off a bye, Steelers get crucial road win before intense divisional stretch.
Week 11 (at Philadelphia, Loss): Close battle goes to Eagles.
Week 12 (Dallas, Win): After two embarrassing losses by Washington last season. Commanders earn home victory.
Week 13 (Tennessee, Win): Daniels leads Washington to a late victory.
Week 14: Bye
Week 15 (at New Orleans, Win): Solid road win off their bye week against inferior Saints.
Week 16 (Philadelphia, Loss): Commanders play Eagles well and win at home.
Week 17 (Atlanta, Win): Commanders can’t stumble with NFC East crown in their sights.
Week 18 (at Dallas, Loss): Dallas wins season finale with playoffs still mathematically possible.
Commanders Final Record: 11-6
Commanders shock the NFL and go from worst to first, winning NFC East.
New York Giants
2023 Record: 6-11
2024 Projected Win Total: 6.5
Week 1 (Minnesota, Win): Giants start year with nice home win over Vikings.
Week 2: (at Washington, Loss): Daniels causes the Giants defense a ton of problems.
Week 3 (at Cleveland, Loss): Daniel Jones will not win at Cleveland against the Browns defense.
Week 4 (Dallas, Win): Cowboys have won six straight against the Giants and 13 of the last 14. That streak ends here.
Week 5 (at Seattle, Loss): Seahawks 12-man too much for Giants.
Week 6 (Cincinnati, Win): Bengals avoid three-game losing streak.
Week 7 (Philadelphia, Win): Giants pull upset over division rival. New York has won three of the last four at home against the Eagles.
Week 8 (at Pittsburgh, Loss): Steelers defense force multiple turnovers.
Week 9: (Washington, Win): Rivalry victory. Close game.
Week 10 (Carolina, Win): Giants enter the bye week an impressive 6-4.
Week 11: Bye
Week 12 (Tampa Bay, Loss): Sluggish Giants lose off bye week to balanced Buccaneers.
Week 13 (at Dallas, Loss): Split with Cowboys.
Week 14 (New Orleans, Win): Giants win at home against inferior Saints.
Week 15 (Baltimore, Loss): Too much physicality from last year’s No. 1 overall defense per DVOA, and Lamar Jackson’s rushing ability confuses Giants defense.
Week 16 (at Atlanta, Loss): Falcons tough at home with elite offensive line.
Week 17 (Indianapolis, Win): Cold road game for Colts outdoors.
Week 18 (at Philadelphia, Loss): Payback at home for Eagles.
Giants Final Record: 8-9
Head coach Brian Daboll gets Giants more competitive, and they exceed their win total.
