Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
I spent many summers with my family down at the shore.
There was always one day, once a year, where my uncle, his sons and I would erupt into loud arguments on the public beach in Beach Haven, N.J. The center of the argument was something all NFL fans do at barbecues, birthday parties or even by themselves late at night.
We project our favorite NFL win totals for the upcoming season.
So, instead of aimlessly yelling “WIN,” “LOSS,” or “TOUGH GAME” in the middle of a crowded beach surrounded by thoroughly annoyed families, I’ve decided to bring that practice to FTN Fantasy. Here is the fourth of my eight-part series where I project every team’s win total for the upcoming season. We already previewed the AFC East, AFC North and AFC South. Today, let’s project the AFC West.
(All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.)
2024 AFC West Win/Loss Predictions
Kansas City Chiefs
2023 Record: 11-6
2024 Projected Win Total: 11.5
Week 1 (Baltimore, Win): The Chiefs lost their home opener last year, hard to see that repeat.
Week 2 (Cincinnati, Win): Chiefs are always ready for Bengals, will not take AFC rival lightly.
Week 3 (at Atlanta, Win): Falcons do not have enough talent to beat Chiefs.
Week 4 (at LA Chargers, Loss): Chargers always play Chiefs tough. Heavy ground attack controls pace.
Week 5 (New Orleans, Win): Huge bounceback from Chiefs at home.
Week 6: Bye
Week 7 (at San Francisco, Loss): 49ers get revenge from Super Bowl.
Week 8 (at Las Vegas, Loss): Raiders always play Chiefs tough. Earn a shocking win at home.
Week 9 (Tampa Bay, Win): Nice schedule of games, especially at home.
Week 10 (Denver, Win): Rookie QB at Arrowhead Stadium is rough.
Week 11 (at Buffalo, Win): Even with Buffalo at home, Mahomes is too much.
Week 12 (at Carolina, Loss): Always an upset on the schedule. Last year was home to Raiders. This year? At Carolina.
Week 13 (Las Vegas, Win): Massive payback for Kansas City.
Week 14 (LA Chargers, Loss): Shocking sweep by Chargers.
Week 15 (at Cleveland, Win): Chiefs need this game to keep up with surprising Chargers.
Week 16 (Houston, Win): Texans will not win on the road here.
Week 17 (at Pittsburgh, Win): Steelers have a letdown spot after a big win at Baltimore.
Week 18 (at Denver, Loss): Broncos provide huge performance to beat Chiefs at home for second straight season.
Chiefs Final Record: 11-6
Easily make the playoffs but lose division after getting swept by the Chargers.
Las Vegas Raiders
2023 Record: 8-9
2024 Projected Win Total: 6.5
Week 1 (at LA Chargers, Loss): Chargers run ball and control clock against Raiders.
Week 2 (at Baltimore, Loss): Lamar Jackson and offensive versatility too much for Raiders solid defense.
Week 3 (Carolina, Win): First win of the season for Las Vegas.
Week 4 (Cleveland, Loss): Browns defense overwhelms Gardner Minshew/Aidan O’Connell.
Week 5 (at Denver, Win): Raiders have won eight straight against the Broncos.
Week 6 (Pittsburgh, Loss): Steelers are a more physical team.
Week 7 (at LA Rams, Loss): Rams attack Raiders with elite wide receivers.
Week 8 (Kansas City, Win): Raiders always play Chiefs tough. Earn a shocking win at home.
Week 9 (at Cincinnati, Loss): Bengals stop two-game slide with road victory.
Week 10: Bye
Week 11 (at Miami, Loss): Brutal matchup in heat against Miami speed.
Week 12 (Denver, Loss): Broncos end nine-game slide.
Week 13 (at Kansas City, Loss): Payback by Chiefs.
Week 14 (at Tampa Bay, Loss): Hard to win on the road, especially against strong defense.
Week 15 (Atlanta, Win): Raiders stop five-game losing streak.
Week 16 (Jacksonville, Loss): Trevor Lawrence lights up poor Raiders secondary.
Week 17 (at New Orleans, Win): Surprising road win led by Minshew annual outlier game.
Week 18 (LA Chargers, Win): Chargers rest players after winning AFC West.
Raiders Final Record: 6-11
Too many questions on offense and not enough pass defense leads to an under on the Raiders 6.5 win total.
Denver Broncos
2023 Record: 8-9
2024 Projected Win Total: 5.5
Week 1 (at Seattle Loss): Seahawks defense too much.
Week 2 (Pittsburgh, Loss): Physicality too much for Broncos, even at home.
Week 3 (at Tampa Bay, Win): Surprising road win for young Broncos.
Week 4:(at NY Jets, Loss): With Aaron Rodgers healthy, Jets are too balanced.
Week 5 (Las Vegas, Loss): Raiders have won eight straight against the Broncos.
Week 6 (LA Chargers, Loss): Chargers are surprise team of the AFC West.
Week 7 (at New Orleans, Win): Sean Payton Revenge Game.
Week 8 (Carolina, Win): Two straight wins for Broncos behind Bo Nix.
Week 9 (at Baltimore, Loss): Ravens stifle rookie quarterback.
Week 10 (at Kansas City, Loss): Rookie QB at Arrowhead Stadium is rough.
Week 11 (Atlanta, Win): Offense clicks in home win over Falcons. Huge game for Jaleel McLaughlin as pass-catching running back.
Week 12 (at Las Vegas, Win): Broncos end nine-game slide to Raiders.
Week 13 (Cleveland, Win): Great win for Payton and team heading into Week 14 bye. Three-game winning streak for Broncos.
Week 14: Bye
Week 15 (Indianapolis, Loss): Colts surprise with road win at young Broncos to end winning streak.
Week 16 (at LA Chargers, Loss): Chargers need this game too badly.
Week 17 (at Cincinnati, Loss): Bengals desperation for playoff hunt.
Week 18 (Kansas City, Win): Broncos end season with second straight home win over Chiefs.
Broncos Final Record: 7-10
Payton does it again, beating the 5.5-game projected total and setting Denver up for a great 2025 season.
Los Angeles Chargers
2023 Record: 5-12
2024 Projected Win Total: 8.5
Week 1 (Las Vegas, Win): Chargers run ball and control clock against Raiders.
Week 2: (at Carolina, Win): Physical offensive line dominates Panthers.
Week 3 (at Pittsburgh, Win): Chargers rushing attack wins strength-on-strength battle.
Week 4 (Kansas City, Win): Chargers always play Chiefs tough. Heavy ground attack controls pace.
Week 5: Bye
Week 6 (at Denver, Win): Chargers are surprise team of the AFC West.
Week 7 (at Arizona, Loss): Every team has a bad loss, Chargers stumble against mobile Kyler Murray.
Week 8 (New Orleans, Win): Easy schedule bearing fruit for Los Angeles.
Week 9: (at Cleveland, Loss): Browns stop Chargers streak with physical defensive effort.
Week 10 (Tennessee, Win): Bounceback spot for Chargers against inferior Titans.
Week 11 (Cincinnati, Win): Chargers rushing attack takes advantage of Bengals front seven that ranked just 19th in run defense DVOA last year.
Week 12 (Baltimore, Win): Surprising Chargers run the ball well against Ravens.
Week 13 (at Atlanta, Loss): Chargers lose road game in lookahead spot at Kansas City.
Week 14 (at Kansas City, Win): Shocking sweep by Chargers.
Week 15 (Tampa Bay, Win): Buccaneers turnovers lead to home victory.
Week 16 (Denver, Loss): Chargers win home game to sweep Broncos.
Week 17 (at New England, Win): Close game but rushing game earns cold weather victory.
Week 18 (at Las Vegas, Loss): Chargers rest players after winning AFC West.
Chargers Final Record: 12-5
Chargers are the surprise team of the NFL, going from last to first and win the division by one game over Chiefs.
