Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
I spent many summers with my family down at the shore.
There was always one day, once a year, where my uncle, his sons and I would erupt into loud arguments on the public beach in Beach Haven, N.J. The center of the argument was something all NFL fans do at barbecues, birthday parties or even by themselves late at night.
We project our favorite NFL win totals for the upcoming season.
So, instead of aimlessly yelling “WIN,” “LOSS,” or “TOUGH GAME” in the middle of a crowded beach surrounded by thoroughly annoyed families, I’ve decided to bring that practice to FTN Fantasy. Here is the first of my eight-part series where I project every team’s win total for the upcoming season. Let’s start with the AFC East.
(All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.)
2024 AFC East Win/Loss Predictions
Buffalo Bills
2023 Record: 11-6
2024 Projected Win Total: 9.5
Week 1 (Arizona, Win): Cardinals will be improved, but the defensive talent discrepancy gets the Bills an opening win at home.
Week 2 (at Miami, Loss): Buffalo owns the Dolphins, having won 10 of the last 11 matchups. Streaks are made to be broken.
Week 3 (Jacksonville, Loss): Jaguars were 13-4 in the 17 games before quarterback Trevor Lawrence was injured.
Week 4 (at Baltimore, Loss): Sunday night at Baltimore, coming off two difficult matchups.
Week 5 (at Houston, Loss): Rough four-pack of games (three road games in four weeks) drops the Bills to 1-4.
Week 6 (at NY Jets, Loss): Jets have split with Buffalo the past two years, winning both home games. This includes last year’s shocking victory after Aaron Rodgers’ season ended in the first quarter.
Week 7 (Tennessee, Win): Big bounceback win for a desperate Buffalo team.
Week 8 (at Seattle, Win): First road win of the year for Buffalo.
Week 9 (Miami, Win): Can’t see the Bills losing both to the Dolphins after dominating them for the past six seasons.
Week 10 (at Indianapolis, Win): Favorable second half of the season gets the Bills rolling with four straight wins.
Week 11 (Kansas City, Loss): Even with Buffalo at home, Mahomes is too much.
Week 12: Bye
Week 13 (San Francisco, Win): Not as high on San Francisco this season. Big win for Buffalo off their bye week with the 49ers at Green Bay the prior week.
Week 14 (at LA Rams, Win): Bills win sixth game in last seven at Rams team that experiences negative regression.
Week 15 (at Detroit, Loss): This game will mean too much to Detroit to lose at home.
Week 16 (New England, Win): Easy home victory.
Week 17 (NY Jets, Win): Josh Allen will not get swept by the Jets.
Week 18 (at New England, Win): If this game means anything to the Bills, they find a way to win.
Bills Final Record: 10-7
The Bills struggle early and need another miracle finish from last season to go over this win total. Any injuries and the Bills go under the 9.5-win total that is heavily juiced (-145) to the over.
Miami Dolphins
2023 Record: 11-6
2024 Projected Win Total: 9.5
Week 1 (Jacksonville, Loss): Will be the surprise of Week 1. Jaguars improved offense and better all-around defense scores a Week 1 road upset.
Week 2 (Buffalo, Win): As mentioned above, Miami ends their struggles against Buffalo in a big way on a short Thursday night turnaround.
Week 3 (at Seattle, Win): Dolphins win at Seattle in a very close matchup. Explosive plays are the difference.
Week 4 (Tennessee, Win): Monday night bloodbath.
Week 5 (at New England, Win): Dolphins win four in a row headed into their Week 6 bye.
Week 6: Bye
Week 7 (at Indianapolis, Win): I’m down on the Colts and don’t see how their defense stops the incredible speed of the Dolphins offense indoors.
Week 8 (Arizona, Win): Miami has one of the easiest strength of schedules per Vegas projected win totals, and you are seeing exactly why. Dolphins start the year 6-1.
Week 9 (at Buffalo, Loss): Hard to see a sweep of Bills.
Week 10 (at LA Rams, Win): Rams overachieved last year.
Week 11 (Las Vegas, Win): This could get ugly.
Week 12 (New England, Win): Patriots cannot match the Dolphins offense.
Week 13 (at Green Bay, Loss): Packers stop a Miami express train that enters this game 9-2. Headliner game for Thanksgiving night.
Week 14 (NY Jets, Win): Last Jets win at Miami? 2015
Week 15 (at Houston, Loss): Fantastic battle ends with close Texans win.
Week 16 (San Francisco, Win): Dolphins at home win a critical game against last year’s NFC Champions.
Week 17 (at Cleveland, Loss): Physical defense in cold weather slows down the Miami attack.
Week 18 (at NY Jets, Win): Could be for the AFC East crown. Assuming they need the game, the Dolphins earn their 12th win of the season.
Dolphins Final Record: 12-5
Easy schedule that is front-loaded with very winnable matchups. Their win total is simply too low. Dolphins can lose to both Houston and San Francisco and still clear this number.
New York Jets
2023 Record: 7-10
2024 Projected Win Total: 10.5
Week 1 (at San Francisco, Win): Jets pull huge road upset in Week 1 with healthy Aaron Rodgers.
Week 2 (at Tennessee, Win): Closer than you would think, but Jets nab consecutive road victories to start the season.
Week 3 (New England, Win): Short week for Thursday night game favors the home team.
Week 4 (Denver, Win): Robert Saleh’s defense forces turnovers for rookie quarterback Bo Nix.
Week 5 (Minnesota, Win): Sam Darnold Revenge Game? No thank you.
Week 6 (Buffalo, Win): Jets have split with Buffalo the past two years, winning both home games. This includes last year’s shocking victory after Aaron Rodgers’ season ended in the first quarter.
Week 7 (at Pittsburgh, Loss): Jets finally stumble in a tough road environment.
Week 8 (at New England, Win): If the Jets lose at Pittsburgh, they don’t fall in Foxboro to the rebuilding Patriots.
Week 9 (Houston, Win): Great Thursday night game, advantage to the home team in a packed house.
Week 10 (at Arizona, Win): This schedule really sets up nicely for the Jets. New York now 9-1 heading into Week 11.
Week 11 (Indianapolis, Win): Sunday night game with the Colts right before the bye week. Jets defense forces Anthony Richardson into multiple turnovers.
Week 12: Bye
Week 13 (Seattle, Win): A rested Jets team uses a huge defensive discrepancy to push their record to an astonishing 11-1.
Week 14 (at Miami, Loss): Last Jets win at Miami? 2015
Week 15 (at Jacksonville, Loss): Improved Jaguars team gives the Jets consecutive losses in Florida.
Week 16 (LA Rams, Win): Rams struggle in chilly New Jersey weather in December. Jets run the ball effectively.
Week 17 (at Buffalo, Loss): Jets will not sweep Bills.
Week 18 (Miami, Loss): Speed kills, and Dolphins firepower too much for Jets even in January.
Jets Final Record: 12-5
Jets finish with a fantastic record due to an easy early schedule but lose the division to the Dolphins after getting swept.
New England Patriots
2023 Record: 4-13
2024 Projected Win Total: 4.5
Week 1 (at Cincinnati, Loss): Close game, but home team gets the win.
Week 2 (Seattle, Loss): Too many offensive weapons for Seattle early in the season.
Week 3 (at NY Jets, Loss): Could be Drake Maye’s first game on a Thursday night AFC East battle.
Week 4 (at San Francisco, Loss): Tough opening schedule for Patriots.
Week 5 (Miami, Loss): Bill Belichick defense gave up 31 and 24 points to Dolphins last year. Good luck, Jerod Mayo.
Week 6 (Houston, Loss): Texans are superior on both sides of the ball.
Week 7 (Jacksonville, Loss): Jaguars roll in their second home, London.
Week 8 (NY Jets, Loss): An 0-8 start with a sweep by the Jets will send the Patriots fans into a tailspin.
Week 9 (at Tennessee, Win): Always darkest before the dawn, Maye leads New England to their first win of the season.
Week 10 (at Chicago, Loss): Bears defense overpowers Patriots offensive line.
Week 11 (LA Rams, Win): Patriots get second win of the year with strong defensive effort.
Week 12 (at Miami, Loss): The heat in Miami makes it very hard for a young Patriots team to get this victory.
Week 13 (Indianapolis, Win): Winnable game against turnover-prone Anthony Richardson.
Week 14: Bye
Week 15 (at Arizona, Loss): Kyler Murray rushing ability is a variable that even Belichick struggled to stop.
Week 16 (at Buffalo, Loss): Too important for Bills.
Week 17 (LA Chargers, Loss): Chargers rushing attack and strong defensive front stifle Patriots.
Week 18 (Buffalo, Loss): Bills will be fighting for playoffs.
Patriots Final Record: 3-14
I’m going under on the Patriots record, and I think four wins is their ceiling. Their offensive line is one of the league’s worst, Maye will have rookie struggles, and their defense will wear down as the year progresses.
