Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
I spent many summers with my family down at the shore.
There was always one day, once a year, where my uncle, his sons and I would erupt into loud arguments on the public beach in Beach Haven, N.J. The center of the argument was something all NFL fans do at barbecues, birthday parties or even by themselves late at night.
We project our favorite NFL win totals for the upcoming season.
So, instead of aimlessly yelling “WIN,” “LOSS,” or “TOUGH GAME” in the middle of a crowded beach surrounded by thoroughly annoyed families, I’ve decided to bring that practice to FTN Fantasy. Here is the third of my eight-part series where I project every team’s win total for the upcoming season. We already previewed the AFC East and AFC North. Today, let’s project the AFC South.
(All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.)
2024 AFC South Win/Loss Predictions
Jacksonville Jaguars
2023 Record: 9-8
2024 Projected Win Total: 8.5
Week 1 (at Miami, Win): Will be the surprise of Week 1. Jaguars improved offense and better all-around defense scores a Week 1 road upset.
Week 2 (Cleveland, Win): Jaguars are my favorite post-hype sleeper of 2024.
Week 3 (at Buffalo, Win): Jaguars were 13-4 in the 17 games before quarterback Trevor Lawrence was injured.
Week 4 (at Houston, Loss): Close game, but Jaguars lose on road to Texans.
Week 5 (Indianapolis, Win): Bounceback victory for Jags against inferior Colts team.
Week 6 (Chicago, Win): Game is in London. Advantage? Jaguars.
Week 7 (New England, Win): Jaguars stay in London and trounce the Patriots to move to 6-1.
Week 8 (Green Bay, Loss): No bye week after two games in London causes a letdown at home to the Packers.
Week 9 (at Philadelphia, Loss): Jacksonville suffers two-game losing skid on road in a tough Philadelphia environment.
Week 10 (Minnesota, Win): Best recipe for a two-game losing streak? Home game against Sam Darnold.
Week 11 (at Detroit, Loss): Jaguars lose third time in four games, but still enter the break at 7-4.
Week 12: Bye
Week 13 (Houston, Win): Jaguars get split with Texans. Jacksonville hasn’t been swept by Houston in three years.
Week 14 (at Tennessee, Win): Jacksonville gets crucial road win in drive to win the AFC South.
Week 15 (NY Jets, Loss): Improved Jaguars team gives the Jets consecutive losses in Florida.
Week 16 (at Las Vegas, Win): Trevor Lawrence lights up poor Raiders secondary.
Week 17 (Tennessee, Win): Jaguars win their fifth game in last six contests against Titans.
Week 18 (at Indianapolis, Loss): Tough road loss to end the season, but Jaguars still make playoffs.
Jaguars Final Record: 11-6
Jaguars win the AFC South with a fantastic bounceback season.
Houston Texans
2023 Record:10-7
2024 Projected Win Total: 9.5
Week 1 (at Indianapolis, Win): Texans enter the season as the favorite in the AFC South.
Week 2 (Chicago, Win): Houston wins Sunday matchup with Bears.
Week 3 (at Minnesota, Win): C.J. Stroud and defense guide Texans to road victory.
Week 4 (Jacksonville, Win): Texans off and running at 4-0.
Week 5 (Buffalo, Win): Texans win close matchup between two Super Bowl contenders.
Week 6 (at New England, Win): Patriots are one of the worst teams in football.
Week 7 (at Green Bay, Loss): Packers win potential Super Bowl matchup.
Week 8 (Indianapolis, Win): Turnover-prone Anthony Richardson will not win at Houston.
Week 9 (at NY Jets, Loss): Great Thursday night game, advantage to the home team in a packed house.
Week 10 (Detroit, Loss): Lions nab big road win on Sunday night.
Week 11 (at Dallas, Loss): Cowboys win intrastate rivalry matchup.
Week 12 (Tennessee, Win): Houston has won last three matchups with Tennessee, including twice on the road.
Week 13 (at Jacksonville, Loss): Jaguars get split with Texans. Jacksonville hasn’t been swept by Houston in three years.
Week 14: Bye
Week 15 (Miami, Loss): Miami speed is a tough matchup for any team. Very difficult end-of-season schedule begins.
Week 16 (at Kansas City, Loss): Always tough at Kansas City.
Week 17 (Baltimore, Win): Texans defense forces Lamar Jackson into multiple turnovers.
Week 18 (at Tennessee, Win): Sweep Titans to get above .500.
Texans Final Record: 10-7
A brutal nonconference schedule, combined with understandable regression, keep the Texans on the playoffs bubble but over their projected win total.
Indianapolis Colts
2023 Record: 9-8
2024 Projected Win Total: 8.5
Week 1 (Houston, Loss): Texans enter the season as the favorite in the AFC South.
Week 2 (at Green Bay, Loss): Difficult schedule starts with two Super Bowl contenders.
Week 3 (Chicago, Win): Bears are perfect answer to avoiding 0-3 start.
Week 4:(Pittsburgh, Loss): Steelers have physicality and better defense.
Week 5 (at Jacksonville, Loss): Bounceback victory for Jags against inferior Colts team.
Week 6 (at Tennessee, Loss): Colts lose close road game.
Week 7 (Miami, Loss): Colts can’t stop Dolphins speed indoors.
Week 8 (at Houston, Loss): Turnover-prone Anthony Richardson will not win at Houston.
Week 9 (at Minnesota, Loss): Two evenly matched teams give edge to the home team.
Week 10 (Buffalo, Loss): The Bills roll for their fourth straight win.
Week 11 (at NY Jets, Loss): Sunday night game with the Colts. Jets defense forces Anthony Richardson into multiple turnovers.
Week 12 (Detroit, Loss): Competitive loss to fellow dome team.
Week 13 (at New England, Loss): Season goes from bad to worse against lowly Patriots.
Week 14: Bye
Week 15 (at Denver, Win): Colts surprise with road win at young Broncos.
Week 16 (Tennessee, Win): Split with Titans.
Week 17 (at NY Giants, Loss): Cold road game at end of disappointing season.
Week 18 (Jacksonville, Win): Nice win to end the season against a Jaguars team that doesn’t need the game.
Colts Final Record: 4-13
Colts need answers at quarterback and suffer a massive disappointment.
Tennessee Titans
2023 Record: 6-11
2024 Projected Win Total: 6.5
Week 1 (at Chicago, Win): Titans pull surprising upset against rookie Caleb Williams.
Week 2: (NY Jets, Loss): Closer game, but Jets nab consecutive road victories to start the season.
Week 3 (Green Bay, Loss): Bad time to face the NFC’s best offense.
Week 4 (at Miami, Loss): Titans pass defense makes this win very difficult.
Week 5: Bye
Week 6 (Indianapolis, Win): Titans get in win column.
Week 7 (at Buffalo, Loss): Bad timing to go to Buffalo after Bills lose at Jets.
Week 8 (at Detroit, Loss): Lions stop the run and force Levis into multiple turnovers.
Week 9: (New England, Win): Second win of the year for Titans.
Week 10 (at LA Chargers, Loss): Chargers will be able to run on any team, which impresses against Titans formidable run defense.
Week 11 (Minnesota, Win): Second win in three games for Tennessee.
Week 12 (at Houston, Loss): Houston has won the last three matchups with Tennessee, including twice on the road.
Week 13 (at Washington, Loss): Bad road loss to a similar team in Washington. Jayden Daniels gets a late victory.
Week 14 (Jacksonville, Loss): Jacksonville gets crucial road win in drive to win the AFC South.
Week 15 (Cincinnati, Loss): Too much advantage for Bengals passing attack.
Week 16 (at Indianapolis, Loss): Split with Titans.
Week 17 (at Jacksonville, Loss): Jaguars win their fifth game in last six contests against Titans.
Week 18 (Houston, Loss): Texans sweep Titans.
Titans Final Record: 4-13
Titans are in transition. Pass defense struggles and Will Levis still leaves unanswered questions.
