Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
I spent many summers with my family down at the shore.
There was always one day, once a year, where my uncle, his sons and I would erupt into loud arguments on the public beach in Beach Haven, N.J. The center of the argument was something all NFL fans do at barbecues, birthday parties or even by themselves late at night.
We project our favorite NFL win totals for the upcoming season.
So, instead of aimlessly yelling “WIN,” “LOSS,” or “TOUGH GAME” in the middle of a crowded beach surrounded by thoroughly annoyed families, I’ve decided to bring that practice to FTN Fantasy. Here is the second of my eight-part series where I project every team’s win total for the upcoming season. Let’s continue with the AFC North.
(All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.)
2024 AFC North Win/Loss Predictions
Pittsburgh Steelers
2023 Record: 10-7
2024 Projected Win Total: 8.5
Week 1 (at Atlanta, Loss): Falcons offensive line and improved defense stop the Steelers in opening week.
Week 2 (at Denver, Win): Rookie quarterback Bo Nix will not be ready for Steelers defense.
Week 3 (LA Chargers, Loss): Chargers rushing attack wins strength-on-strength battle.
Week 4 (at Indianapolis, Win): Steelers defense forces turnovers from inconsistent Anthony Richardson.
Week 5 (Dallas, Win): Steelers always play well as underdog, Cowboys just 10-9 ATS against nonconference opponents since 2020.
Week 6 (at Las Vegas, Win): More physical team wins, even on road.
Week 7 (NY Jets, Win): Jets flying high at 6-0, get grounded at Blitzburgh.
Week 8 (NY Giants, Win): Steelers enter the bye week at an impressive 6-2.
Week 9: Bye
Week 10 (at Washington, Win): Healthy Steelers get crucial road win before intense divisional stretch.
Week 11 (Baltimore, Loss): Ravens earn surprising road win against the current division leaders.
Week 12 (at Cleveland, Win): Quarterback concerns give Steelers second road win at Cleveland in last four seasons.
Week 13 (at Cincinnati, Loss): Will split with Bengals.
Week 14 (Cleveland, Win): Steelers have won three straight home games against Browns.
Week 15 (at Philadelphia, Loss): Eagles win at home.
Week 16 (at Baltimore, Win): Steelers split with Ravens and win in Baltimore for their seventh time in the last eight road matchups.
Week 17 (Kansas City, Loss): Letdown spot at end of season.
Week 18 (Cincinnati, Win): Won’t be swept by Bengals. Pittsburgh has only been swept by Cincinnati once in the last 14 years.
Steelers Final Record: 11-6
Steelers benefit from an easy early-season schedule to start a blistering 6-2, and they hit their over comfortably.
Cincinnati Bengals
2023 Record: 9-8
2024 Projected Win Total: 10.5
Week 1 (New England, Win): Closer game that most expect, but Cincinnati starts 1-0 for only the second time in the last six seasons.
Week 2 (at Kansas City, Loss): Chiefs are always ready for Bengals, will not take AFC rival lightly.
Week 3 (Washington, Win): Commanders pass defense struggles on road.
Week 4 (at Carolina, Loss): Surprising upset against much-improved Panthers offense.
Week 5 (Baltimore, Loss): Ravens have won three of the last four regular-season meetings.
Week 6 (at NY Giants, Win): Bengals avoid three-game losing streak.
Week 7 (at Cleveland, Loss): Home team wins this rivalry.
Week 8 (Philadelphia, Loss): Cincinnati allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Week 9 (Las Vegas, Win): Bengals stop two-game slide with road victory over inferior Raiders.
Week 10 (at Baltimore, Loss): Ravens are more balanced team.
Week 11 (at LA Chargers, Loss): Chargers rushing attack takes advantage of Bengals front seven that ranked just 19th in run defense DVOA last year.
Week 12: Bye
Week 13 (Pittsburgh, Win): Will split with Steelers.
Week 14 (at Dallas, Loss): Cowboys offense outscores Bengals at home.
Week 15 (at Tennessee, Win): Too much advantage for Bengals passing attack.
Week 16 (Cleveland, Win): Home team usually wins this rivalry.
Week 17 (Denver, Win): Nice late-season three-game win streak for desperate Bengals team.
Week 18 (at Pittsburgh, Loss): Will split with Steelers
Bengals Final Record: 8-9
I am fading the Bengals much more than the public. Their win total is inflated by a very easy schedule. Cincinnati struggles early and then suffers divisional scars in the brutal AFC North.
Baltimore Ravens
2023 Record: 13-4
2024 Projected Win Total: 10.5
Week 1 (at Kansas City, Loss): Tough road opener for any team. The Chiefs lost their home opener last year, hard to see that repeat.
Week 2 (Las Vegas, Win): Easy victory.
Week 3 (at Dallas, Loss): Ravens start the season 0-2 on the road.
Week 4:(Buffalo, Win): Ravens win home shootout with Bills.
Week 5 (at Cincinnati, Win): Ravens have won three of the last four regular-season meetings.
Week 6 (Washington, Loss): Commanders pull home upset behind versatile Jayden Daniels.
Week 7 (at Tampa Bay, Win): Buccaneers offense regresses against Ravens pass rush.
Week 8 (at Cleveland, Win): Ravens have won three of last five at Cleveland.
Week 9 (Denver, Win): Ravens stifle rookie quarterback Bo Nix.
Week 10 (Cincinnati, Win): Ravens much better all-around team.
Week 11 (at Pittsburgh, Win): Ravens earn surprising road win against the current division leaders.
Week 12 (at LA Chargers, Loss): Surprising Chargers run the ball well against Ravens.
Week 13 (Philadelphia, Win): Home field makes a huge difference here.
Week 14: Bye
Week 15 (at NY Giants, Win): Too much physicality from last year’s No. 1 overall defense per DVOA, and Lamar Jackson’s rushing ability confuses Giants defense.
Week 16 (Pittsburgh, Loss): Steelers split with Ravens, and win in Baltimore for their seventh time in the last eight road matchups.
Week 17 (at Houston, Loss): Texans defense forces Jackson into multiple turnovers.
Week 18 (Cleveland, Win): Massive win gives Ravens tie for division title with Pittsburgh.
Ravens Final Record: 11-6
Ravens tie for division title with Pittsburgh after a critical Week 18 home victory over the Browns.
Cleveland Browns
2023 Record: 11-6
2024 Projected Win Total: 8.5
Week 1 (Dallas, Win): I have concerns about Deshaun Watson as quarterback, but Browns defense pressures Prescott enough to earn Week 1 victory.
Week 2: (at Jacksonville, Loss): Jaguars are my favorite post-hype sleeper of 2024.
Week 3 (NY Giants, Win): Daniel Jones will not win at Cleveland against the Browns defense.
Week 4 (at Las Vegas, Win): Defense too much for Raiders limited offense.
Week 5 (at Washington, Loss): Cleveland’s offensive struggles get exposed by pressure defense of Dan Quinn. Browns were fifth-worst in offensive DVOA per Aaron Schatz. Third road game in four weeks.
Week 6 (at Philadelphia, Loss): Eagles blast Browns on their third-straight road contest.
Week 7 (Cincinnati, Win): Home team usually wins this rivalry.
Week 8 (Baltimore, Loss): Ravens have won three of last five at Cleveland.
Week 9: (LA Chargers, Win): Browns win critical game to go 5-4 heading into bye week.
Week 10: Bye
Week 11 (at New Orleans, Win): Saints are one of the NFC’s worst teams.
Week 12 (Pittsburgh, Loss): Quarterback concerns give Steelers second road win at Cleveland in last four seasons.
Week 13 (at Denver, Loss): Bad road loss in altitude of Denver really hurts Browns playoff chances.
Week 14 (at Pittsburgh, Loss): Steelers have won three straight home games against Browns.
Week 15 (Kansas City, Loss): Chiefs will need this game to keep pace with surprising Chargers.
Week 16 (at Cincinnati, Loss): Split with Bengals.
Week 17 (Miami, Loss): Cold weather will slow Dolphins, but not enough for a victory.
Week 18 (at Baltimore, Loss): Ravens will need to win this game to tie Steelers for division title.
Browns Final Record: 6-11
Browns end the year with seven straight losses due to offensive struggles and less potent defense than 2023. Playoff struggles last year prove a harbinger of things to come.
