Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
When entering a large field tournament such as Best Ball Mania and the various other contests Underdog Fantasy has to offer, it’s important to find ways to leverage the field without going too off the board.
There are many ways to differentiate yourself from your opponents, but my favorite approach is to simply get unique with my last-round pick. Once you get to Round 18, you’ll notice that the players going after pick 210 begin to share overlapping ADPs. This is because they are mostly going undrafted, usually due to uncertainty in their role for the upcoming season.
Below, I’m going to break down a few players that I believe are flying under the radar and may see their stock rise throughout training camp. I’ll focus only on players getting selected beyond the top 210 picks who should at least see the field, mitigating the risk of a dead roster spot.
Best Ball Late-Round Flyers for 2024
Dawson Knox, TE, Buffalo Bills
ADP: 212.2, TE30
One year removed from signing a new extension, Dawson Knox saw his stock plummet last offseason when the Bills traded up in the 2023 draft to select Dalton Kincaid with the 25th overall pick as the first tight end off the board. Kincaid was phenomenal as a rookie, setting a franchise record in receptions at the position while catching the fourth-most passes by a first-year tight end in NFL history (73). Although Knox’s receiving production took a hit with the addition of Kincaid, he still ran a route on 52% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks, totaling 22 receptions on 36 targets for 186 yards and two touchdowns in 13 games. Before suffering a wrist injury in Week 8, Knox was actually the preferred option over Kincaid, outsnapping the rookie 270-242 in the first five games with both tight ends available. It’s fair to assume that Kincaid’s role will grow in year two, but both Knox should still see significant playing time with the Bills entering 2024 with the second-most vacated targets (173) and receiving yards (1,369) with the departure of their top two wide receivers in Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. With both tight ends active (12 games), the Bills ran out of 12 personnel at the second-highest rate in the league (26%) which should only increase this upcoming season. Knox’s scoring may be volatile, but he’s the perfect boom/bust tight end for best ball, with a career 12.8% touchdown rate through five seasons in the NFL.
Tucker Kraft, TE, Green Bay Packers
ADP: 214.1, TE32
Tucker Kraft was the second tight end selected by the Packers in the 2023 NFL Draft, as they doubled down at the position in back-to-back rounds on Day Two. Kraft wasn’t much of a factor with both tight ends active, seeing zero targets in seven out of his first eight games, running a route on just 20% of Jordan’s Love’s dropbacks in Weeks 1-11. However, after Musgrave was sent to the IR with a lacerated kidney, Kraft made the most of his opportunities, operating in a near-every down role, posting an 85% route participation rate while averaging 46.8 receiving yards on a 16% target share in Weeks 12-17. Even when Musgrave returned in Week 18, Kraft held on to the job, outsnapping his counterpart 156-43 in the last three games of the season (including the playoffs). Kraft’s ADP has tanked since tearing his pec earlier in the offseason usually going undrafted despite reports suggesting Kraft should be back by Week 1 and may even be the starter. Even if Kraft is relegated back to second on the depth chart, he should continue to see meaningful playing time, drawing high praise from head coach Matt LaFleur on his performance in the back half of last season.
Jauan Jennings, WR, San Francisco 49ers
ADP: 215.0, WR100
The 49ers re-signed Jauan Jennings to a one-year deal earlier this offseason despite selecting what looked to be his replacement, adding Ricky Pearsall in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft (No. 31 overall). Jennings had under 20 receptions (19) for 265 yards, while scoring just one touchdown in the regular season, but he operated as the clear third wide receiver, trailing only Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel in the route participation rate at the position (55%). He saw his best usage in the playoffs, carving out a double-digit target share and running a route on at least 60% of Brock Purdy’s dropbacks in two out of three postseason games, earning a target on 17% of his routes during that span. His best performance came in the Super Bowl, catching four of five passes for 42 yards and a score to go along with a 21-yard touchdown pass. Jennings’s role is to be determined in 2024 but should have the early edge over Pearsall who was recently placed on the NFI list entering training camp. Even if Pearsall passes Jennings on the depth chart, both receivers could see a significant rise in their stock if Aiyuk is traded. Regardless of how the situation pans out, Jennings is unlikely to be a complete zero on your roster, with a lot of contingent value as one of the rare wide receiver “handcuffs.” His new extension is a sign of trust by the coaching staff, doing all the dirty work, joining Puka Nacua as the only other wide receiver to post higher than an 80 pass-blocking grade according to PFF. At WR100 overall, Jennings provides a cheap way to gain exposure to San Francisco’s high-octane offense that finished No. 1 overall in DVOA this past season (31.8), projected to score the most points in 2024.
Trey Sermon, RB, Indianapolis Colts
ADP: 215.4, RB70
Trey Sermon was reunited with his former offensive coordinator and current head coach Shane Steichen last offseason, entering training camp in pole position as the second running back behind Jonathan Taylor. When asked about the backfield, general manager Chris Ballard stated, “We got some young guys that came in, and (Sermon) did a really good job when he came in and played for us last year.” Sermon saw just 38 touches for 173 yards from scrimmage last season but appears to be the favorite to replace Zack Moss according to the reports out of OTAs earlier this offseason.
There is a risk Sermon gets passed up on the depth chart, but the same can be said about a handful of other backs who are being drafted much higher in 100% of lobbies. If Sermon does hold onto the role, he is far too cheap, given what we just saw from Moss, finishing as the RB27 in the 2023 fantasy regular season (Weeks 1-17). Without Taylor, Moss had one of the best roles in the league, seeing over 20 opportunities per game (20.7), averaging 19.5 touches, 78 yards from scrimmage, 0.5 touchdowns, and 12.1 half-PPR points during that span. Even when Taylor was active, the team seemed weary of giving him his traditional every-down role, posting a sub-60% snap share through 10 games. Injury likely played a significant factor, but Taylor never looked quite the same, setting career-low marks in yards (4.4) and missed tackles forced (0.17) per carry.
