NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
It’s time to look ahead to the 2023 NFL season! Follow along with all our fantasy football team offseason roundups here.
It’s been a very busy NFL offseason, with free agent signings, coaching changes and several new players entering the league via the NFL Draft. As we prepare for the 2023 fantasy football season, it’s critical to have a full understanding of each team’s offseason moves. Our NFL team roundup series today covers the New England Patriots.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: New England Patriots
2022 Results
Record: 8-9; 3rd in the AFC East
Season End: Missed the playoffs
New England Patriots Offseason Summary
Draft
1.17: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
2.46: Keion White, EDGE, Georgia Tech
3.76: Marte Mapu, LB/S, Sacramento State
4.107: Jake Andrews, C, Troy
4.112: Chad Ryland, K, Maryland
4.117: Sidy Sow, G, Eastern Michigan
5.144: Atonio Mafi, G, UCLA
6.187: Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU
6.192: Bryce Baringer, P, Michigan State
6.210: Demario Douglas, WR, Liberty
6.214: Ameer Speed, DB, Michigan State
7.245: Isaiah Bolden, CB, Jackson State
Christian Gonzalez, CB (1.17)
The Patriots may have missed on many of their high draft picks from recent seasons. But the team has enjoyed tremendous success with Day 3 and undrafted cornerbacks over the last decade like Jonathan Jones, J.C. Jackson and Jack Jones. Mid-first-round rookie Christian Gonzalez could fall in either bucket. He put up outrageous combine numbers like a 4.38-second 40 time and 41.5-inch vertical jump. But he could be poised to start in Week 1, a difficult proposition for even many of the eventual best corners in football.
Kayshon Boutte, WR (6.187)
Kayshon Boutte is a former five-star prospect who hit the ground running with 45 catches and 735 yards as a freshman for LSU the year after the mass exodus of the 15-0, Joe Burrow title team stars. Boutte might have been the first receiver picked if he could have entered the 2021 draft. Instead, he missed half of his sophomore season with an ankle injury and underwhelmed in his junior season, often playing second fiddle to the less experienced Malik Nabers. Now, scouts can’t seem to agree whether the Patriots found the steal of the draft in the sixth round or whether Boutte will never make it in the NFL, because of that ankle injury or otherwise. With his track record of receiver draft picks, Bill Belichick sure could use the former.
Malik Cunningham, QB (UDFA)
Malik Cunningham wasn’t actually a draft pick. He went undrafted out of Louisville. But the concerns for his slender frame and deep accuracy sound similar to those of another Louisville product — albeit one with a dramatically better draft pedigree. And while Cunningham may be a long shot to start games in his professional career, reporters have observed him running drills with wide receivers this offseason. And there is at least a small chance Bill Belichick has found his version of Sean Payton’s favorite package player, Taysom Hill.
Additions
Free agent signings: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, T Calvin Anderson, LB Chris Board, T Riley Reiff, TE Mike Gesicki, RB James Robinson, TE Anthony Firkser, QB Trace McSorley, P Corliss Waitman
Bill O’Brien, OC
At 71 years old, Hall of Fame head coach Bill Belichick walks a fine line between crazy and crazy like a fox. And his ploy to use former defensive coordinator and reviled Lions head coach Matt Patricia as a de facto offensive coordinator proved to be the former. O’Brien is not the most inspired hire as a previous Patriots and more recent Alabama OC — Belichick has a reputation of leaning too heavily on Nick Saban’s prospect opinions. But O’Brien should not need to be a 53-year-old Kyle Shanahan or Ben Johnson to right the ship for franchise quarterback Mac Jones.
Mike Gesicki, TE
The Patriots could not rediscover the two-TE magic of Rob Gronkowski’s glory days with high-priced free agent additions Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. But they aim to try again this season with Gesicki in place of Smith. The swap is a strange one from certain angles. Smith has the best reputation of the trio as a blocker and ran routes on about half as many pass snaps as his replacement in 2022 (35.0% vs. 68.2%). But Gesicki cost the Patriots a modest $3.5 million in guarantees after a poor Dolphins scheme fit sabotaged his 2022 production. And at his best, Gesicki stretched the field with an 11.1-yard average depth of target. He could sneakily complement a receiver room with more quick-cutters — like JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kendrick Bourne — and ball-winners — like DeVante Parker — than field-stretchers.
Riley Reiff, T
Bill Belichick has traded away countless productive veterans a year before they hit the wall. It’s hard to question that track record. But it was still surprising to see Belichick let former first-round tackle Isaiah Wynn walk just two seasons removed from a 1.8% blown block rate that ranked top 10 among regular left tackles. Riley Reiff has been better and healthier more recently. But he’s also twice as expensive and seven years older. And despite a free agent addition of former Broncos swing tackle Calvin Anderson and three offensive line draft picks in Rounds 4 and 5 this offseason, the Patriots do not have an apparent long-term plan for right tackle.
Departures
WR Jakobi Meyers, QB Brian Hoyer, WR Nelson Agholor, T Isaiah Wynn, RB Damien Harris, P Jake Bailey, CB Joejuan Williams, S Devin McCourty, DT Carl Davis, T Marcus Cannon, K Quinn Nordin
Jakobi Meyers, WR
Jakobi Meyers and his effective free agent replacement JuJu Smith-Schuster are the same style of players. Both run a heavy chunk of their routes from the slot, and both see relatively low average target depths (9.9 and 7.3 in 2022) because of it. But the Patriots’ penny-pinching maneuver could risk their locker room as many of his former teammates panned the decision in the press.
Damien Harris, RB
Damien Harris was more than a touchdown scorer with the Patriots. He ranked in the upper half of regular running backs with 2.58 yards after contact per attempt the last three seasons. But his successor Rhamondre Stevenson was top 10 in that respect with 2.98 average yards after contact, and he paired that with a 7.4% explosive run rate that was also top 10. Stevenson has the skills to be one of the best featured backs in football. But it remains a question whether the Patriots will share his workload with some combination of free agent addition James Robinson, sophomore runners Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris and receiving back Ty Montgomery.
At 35 years old, Devin McCourty cannot match the talent of his safety heirs, Kyle Dugger and Adrian Phillips. But McCourty was the last defensive holdover of the Tom Brady Patriots dynasty. And now, three quarters of the projected Patriots secondary are 27, 25 and 20 years old. I don’t believe a 71-year-old Bill Belichick wants to rebuild. But call it a retooling, maybe. And that turnover may finally have the team trending upward, again.
New England Patriots Fantasy Outlook
The three most interesting Patriots fantasy options:
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB
As mentioned, Rhamondre Stevenson has RB1 talent. But in 2022, his top-10 fantasy potential hinged on his involvement on third downs. Stevenson bookended a middle third of the season with 6.5 catches per game with first and final thirds with more modest rates of 2.8 and 2.6 catches per game. And while Damien Harris’ departure clears some of the deck, Ty Montgomery or a sophomore back could take that smaller third-down workload and do Stevenson fairly big fantasy damage.
Mac Jones, QB
Mac Jones is a throwback pocket passer, which is a practical non-starter for most traditional fantasy formats that play one quarterback per fantasy team. But Jones teased at least a moderate fantasy ceiling with a top 20 total of 237.9 fantasy points in his rookie season. Most quarterbacks improve from there. But Jones declined. Call it regression, but Jones may owe the bulk of his sophomore slump to de facto offensive coordinator Matt Patricia. I would take a flier on a Jones bounce back with Bill O’Brien late in deep and two-quarterback leagues.
Tyquan Thornton, WR
The Patriots have a receiver room full of specialists. The sophomore Tyquan Thornton may be that, too, with his field-stretching 4.28 speed. But those athletic gifts also earn Thornton the highest ceiling on his depth chart. He should be a best ball fantasy pick, at the very least.
2023 Outlook
DraftKings Sportsbook Wins Over/Under: 7.5 (+105)
The league had two decades to build up resentment toward the dynastic Patriots, and it’s been easy to pile on as Bill Belichick has marched to his own tune the last three seasons with dramatically less success. That said, I think the public pendulum has swung too far the other way. The Patriots are an even 18-18 the last two seasons with Mac Jones at quarterback. And they’ve underachieved their Pythagorean win estimates by a combined 3.6 wins. The AFC East got harder with Aaron Rodgers this offseason, and the Patriots landed the second most difficult projected schedule. But the team also looks better, if mainly for its assistant coaching changes. I wouldn’t bet the Patriots to win the division. But I love them over 7.5 wins.
