NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
With the start of the 2023 NFL and fantasy football season around the corner, I will be going team by team recapping notable moves in the offseason, projecting their outlook for the upcoming league year. I’ll be using the FTN Prop Shop Tool to pick out my favorite bets with the best line available, today covering the Tennessee Titans. Stay up to date on the action placed by myself and the rest of the FTN crew in real-time with the FTN Bet Tracker. You can also follow @FTNAlerts on Twitter with push notifications turned on.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: Tennessee Titans
2022 Results
Record: 7-10, 2nd in the AFC South
Season End: Missed the playoffs
Tennessee Titans Offseason Summary
Draft
1.11: Peter Skoronski, T/G, Northwestern
2.33: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
3.81: Tyjae Spears, RB, Tulane
5.147: Josh Whyle, TE, Cincinnati
6.186: Jaelyn Duncan, T, Maryland
7.228: Colton Dowell, WR, UT Martin
Peter Skoronski, T/G (1.11)
The Titans could have drafted Will Levis with the No. 11 pick and no one would have batted an eye. But the team may have its cake and eat it, too, with Skoronski in the first and Levis in the second. Incumbent left tackle Taylor Lewan made three straight Pro Bowls in his prime 2016-18 seasons. But he suffered major knee injuries in 2020 and 2022 — the latter of which ended his season after just two starts — and will be 32 years old when the new season kicks off this September. Tennessee would have needed a long-term plan even if they hadn’t let Lewan walk in free agency this offseason. The bigger question with Skoronski will be whether he sticks at tackle or guard. He excelled in the former role at Northwestern but has a prototypical guard build, most notably with his short 32-and-a-quarter-inch arms.
Will Levis, QB (2.33)
Levis always made stylistic sense for the Titans. He has the willingness to stand in the pocket to take hits and the arm strength to allow for explosive plays in a play-action-oriented offense. The tradeoff of an elevated sack rate will be nothing new for a team that has started Ryan Tannehill the last four seasons. And Levis adds a dimension that Tannehill doesn’t as a runner. The intrigue stems from the Titans’ decision to pass on Levis with the No. 11 pick and trade up and take him at the start of the second round. That maneuvering cost the team a potential fifth-year option that would represent a decent cost savings if Levis developed into an elite quarterback. But it might also lower expectations and lessen the blow if Levis ends up a bust.
Tyjae Spears, RB (3.81)
If the Will Levis pick tipped the Titans’ plans, then the Spears pick confirmed that the team has started to build for the future. Derrick Henry has been the man at running back since his 2018 breakout. But he is now 29 years old, an age when many of his bell-cow predecessors have started to decline. If the team transitions to Levis in 2023, then Henry might make more sense for another team in its championship window. Spears is a compelling draft pick because his versatility as a runner and receiver and smaller 5-foot-10 and 201-pound frame make him a potential Henry complement. And Spears could have a shorter career than his contemporaries because he is missing an ACL in one of his knees. Perhaps the Titans are trying to thread the needle, allowing themselves the option to lean into a competitive 2023 if they start hot but leaving a door open for an in-season blow-up and build for the future.
Additions
Free agent signings: EDGE Arden Key, T Andre Dillard, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, G Daniel Brunskill, WR Chris Moore, LB Luke Gifford, TE Trevon Wesco, LB Ben Niemann, DT Jaleel Johnson
Arden Key, EDGE
Key has never threatened Bud Dupree sack totals or come particularly close. In fact, his modest 4.5 sacks from 2022 were just two off a career high. But Key has been consistently disruptive with 30 or more pass pressures in his three healthy seasons. His $21 million contract is a major discount relative to the team’s released veteran. And subjectively, the swap earns a boost from the fact that the Titans saw Key twice in 2022 when he played for their division rival Jaguars.
If the Titans decide that first-round rookie Peter Skoronski should play guard instead of tackle, then Dillard looks like their best alternative at left tackle. That plan makes sense based on pedigree. Dillard was a Round 1 draft pick back in 2019. But the former Eagles lineman underwhelmed with a position-worst 8.2% blown block rate as a rookie, missed his sophomore season with a biceps injury, and then played limited snaps in the two seasons since. Dillard is a reasonable sleeper target with the hope that a change in scenery and coaching staff can unlock his natural talent. But the Titans do not have an obvious back-up plan if that plan falls short.
Murphy-Bunting played dramatically better than his established standard, allowing an extremely low 4.5 yards per target in 2022. And the veteran played less and missed time with a quad injury. Chances are, he will see that efficiency regress with more playing time in 2023. But if Titans fans are curious if they moved the needle with their cornerback addition, they can just ask Murphy-Bunting’s former Bucs coach and long-time defensive coordinator, Todd Bowles.
Departures
T Taylor Lewan, G Nate Davis, DT DeMarcus Walker, WR Robert Woods, LB Zach Cunningham, C Ben Jones, LB David Long, TE Geoff Swaim, CB A.J. Moore, EDGE Bud Dupree, K Randy Bullock, TE Austin Hooper, QB Joshua Dobbs, G Dennis Daley, WR Chris Conley, RB Dontrell Hilliard, DT Mario Edwards, LB Dylan Cole, DT Kevin Strong, T Le’Raven Clark, CB Lonnie Johnson, CB Terrance Mitchell, R Trenton Cannon, CB Greg Mabin, S Andrew Adams, EDGE Tarell Basham, EDGE Da’Shawn Hand, CB Davontae Harris, LB Andre Smith, LB Joseph Jones, C Daniel Munyer, WR C.J. Board, S Joshua Kalu, WR Cody Hollister
Taylor Lewan, T
Lewan hasn’t suffered a dramatic decline in his performance since his glory days of three straight Pro Bowls from 2016 to 2018. His 2.7% blown block rate from 2021 was fairly strong for the position. But Lewan missed the bulk of both his 2020 and 2022 seasons with major knee injuries. And that string of post-30 injuries made his $15 million cap hit untenable. The team released Lewan in mid-February. And the veteran has so far failed to find a new team and may not find one judging by the lawsuit he filed against his knee surgeon, Dr. James Andrews.
Robert Woods, WR
The veteran Woods may have been several years removed from his A.J. Brown-volume receiving seasons with the Rams in 2018 and 2019. But his versatility as a receiver and a run-blocker made him an on-paper fit for a Titans team that leans on the run and uses it to establish a play-action passing game. Unfortunately for the team, Woods saw his former standout average yards after the catch crater to 2.94 yards in 2022, 10th lowest among the 51 wideouts with 50 or more catches. And the team subsequently released him this offseason.
Bud Dupree, EDGE
The Titans took a risk when they signed Dupree to an $82.5 million deal coming off a December ACL tear with his former Steelers. And while the pass rusher eventually shook the knee injury, he missed a third of his 2022 season with a hip injury, as well — presumably as compensation for his balky knee. Some $20-plus million on the wrong side of the salary cap, the team couldn’t afford to bet on Dupree bouncing back to his 40-plus pressure, 10-plus sack, pre-injury standard and released him this offseason.
Schedule
Week 1 – @ New Orleans Saints (Jaguars –3.5)
Week 2 – Los Angeles Chargers
Week 3 – @ Cleveland Browns
Week 4 – Cincinnati Bengals
Week 5 – @ Indianapolis Colts
Week 6 – Baltimore Ravens
Week 7 – BYE
Week 8 – Atlanta Falcons
Week 9 – @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 10 – @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 11 – @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 12 – Carolina Panthers
Week 13 – Indianapolis Colts
Week 14 – @ Miami Dolphins
Week 15 – Houston Texans
Week 16 – Seattle Seahawks
Week 17 – @ Houston Texans
Week 18 – Jacksonville Jaguars
2023 Future Odds
FanDuel: Wins Over/Under 7.5 (105/-115)
DraftKings: To Win AFC South (+350)
The Titans were in the driver’s seat to win their third straight divisional title last season, holding a three-game lead entering Week 12. After a strong 7-3 start, Tennessee collapsed down the stretch, losing all seven of their final regular season games. They remained in the playoff hunt all season long, playing in a “win and in” scenario in Week 18 against the Jaguars. Despite playing without Ryan Tannehill, who missed five games last season, the Titans nearly defeated Jacksonville, blowing a six-point lead in the fourth quarter. Although they presumably drafted Tannehill’s replacement in the second round of the 2023 draft, the team looks ready to run it back for one more season. They spent significant money in free agency, making win-now moves, most notably signing DeAndre Hopkins to a two-year deal worth up to $32 million. That isn’t to say that they won’t tear things down by midseason, which is why I prefer to take the +350 long shot to win the AFC South, rather than their win total. Aside from the Jaguars, no other team is all that threatening, with the Colts and Texans starting rookie quarterbacks, paired with a first-time head coach.
Best Bets
FanDuel: DeAndre Hopkins Over 850.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Returning from a six-game PED suspension, DeAndre Hopkins showed no signs of rust last year, eclipsing the century mark in his first two games, catching 22 passes for 262 receiving yards and a touchdown in Weeks 7-8. Despite playing without Kyler Murray in 44.44% of his games, Hopkins averaged seven receptions for 77 receiving yards, finding the end zone one-third of the time. Over a 17-game season, Hopkins was on pace for 119 receptions, 1,309 receiving yards and 5.61 touchdowns. Even in a run-centric Titans offense, I like the over on Nuk’s 850.5 receiving yards prop, where he should immediately take over as the alpha. Since his 800-yard rookie campaign, Hopkins has cleared 950 receiving yards in seven out of seven seasons he’s played at least 11 games. He also has a $1 million incentive baked into his new contract if he reaches 1,050 receiving yards in 2023.
Unibet/Second-Chance Bet: Derrick Henry Most Rushing Yards (+900)
In his first season back from a Jones fracture, Derrick Henry looked every bit as dominant as before the surgery, logging his third 1,500-yard rushing season over the past four seasons. He trailed only Josh Jacobs in rushing yards last season, posting 1,538 yards on the ground in 16 games. No player saw more carries than Henry in 2022 (349), averaging nearly 30 rush attempts per game (21.8). Since winning the rushing title with 2,027 yards in 2020, Henry has yet to finish outside the top two in rushing yards per game over the last four seasons. It’s difficult to bet on a 29-year-old running back, entering his eighth NFL season, but it’s worth a sprinkle at +900.
