Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
With the start of the 2023 NFL season around the corner, I will be going team by team recapping notable moves in the offseason, projecting their outlook for the upcoming league year. I’ll be using the FTN Prop Shop to pick out my favorite bets with the best line available, today covering the Las Vegas Raiders. Stay up to date on the action placed by myself and the rest of the FTN crew in real-time with the FTN Bet Tracker. You can also follow @FTNAlerts on Twitter with push notifications turned on.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: Las Vegas Raiders
2022 Results
Record: 6-11; 3rd in the AFC West
Season End: Lost to the Kansas City Chiefs, 31-13, missed the playoffs
Las Vegas Raiders Offseason Summary
Draft
1.07: Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
2.35: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
3.70: Byron Young, DT, Alabama
3.100: Tre Tucker, WR, Cincinnati
4.104: Jakorian Bennett, CB, Maryland
4.135: Aidan O’Connell, QB, Purdue
5.170: Chris Smith, S, Georgia
Tyree Wilson, EDGE (1.07)
The Raiders bolstered their pass rush, headlined by two-time Pro Bowler Max Crosby and future Hall of Fame candidate Chandler Jones, by selecting Tyree Wilson at seventh overall. At 6-foot-6 and 271 pounds, Wilson was a menace off the edge, recording 14 sacks and 27.5 tackles for losses in his last two seasons at Texas Tech.
Michael Mayer, TE (2.35)
After trading away Darren Waller this offseason, and letting Foster Moreau walk in free agency, the Raiders moved up three spots in the second round and selected Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer at pick No. 35. Mayer was perennially mocked in the first round, often the TE1 off the board. As a former five-star recruit out of Covington Catholic High School, Mayer went above and beyond expectations, setting the all-time record for receptions (180), receiving yards (2,099) and receiving touchdowns (18), by any tight end in Notre Dame history.
Additions
Free agent signings: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, WR Jakobi Meyers, S Marcus Epps, LB Robert Spillane, CB Brandon Facyson, QB Brian Hoyer, LS Jacob Bobenmoyer, TE Austin Hooper, G Greg Van Roten, WR DeAndre Carter, CB David Long, DT John Jenkins, CB Duke Shelley, S Jaquan Johnson, TE O.J. Howard, WR Cam Sims, WR Phillip Dorsett, EDGE Jordan Willis
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB
The Raiders signed former 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to a three-year contract, after playing four seasons with head coach Josh McDaniel as a member of the Patriots. After being traded in the middle of the 2017 season, Garoppolo appeared in 57 games with San Francisco, recording 13,599 passing yards, 82 touchdowns and 42 interceptions. After acquiring Garoppolo, the 49ers made the NFC Championship game in three of the last four seasons, with one trip to the Super Bowl. Garoppolo took over for Trey Lance as the starting quarterback in Week 2 last season but played only 11 games before suffering a season-ending foot injury.
Jakobi Meyers, WR
The Raiders signed Jakobi Meyers to a three-year contract this offseason, He had played two seasons with head coach Josh McDaniels as a member of the Patriots. As a former undrafted free agent, Meyers led New England in targets and receiving yards in each of the last three seasons and finished first in receptions in two out of the three seasons since 2020.
Marcus Epps, S
Former Eagles safety Marcus Epps was brought in on a two-year, $12-million deal, fresh off a trip to the Super Bowl. Eps started all 17 games for Philadelphia last season, posting 94 tackles including four tackles for losses, to go along with six passes defended and a forced fumble.
Austin Hooper, TE
Two-time Pro Bowl tight end Austin Hooper signed a one-year contract with Las Vegas, adding veteran depth to the position. Hooper played all 17 games with the Titans last season, finishing second on the team in targets (60) and receptions (41), and tied for third in receiving yards (444). Since being drafted by the Falcons in 2016 (81st overall), Hooper has appeared in 105 games with the fourth-most catches among any tight end during that stretch (339).
Departures
QB Derek Carr, TE Darren Waller, TE Foster Moreau, QB Jarrett Stidham, CB Rock Ya-Sin, DT Andrew Billings, ILB Denzel Perryman, WR Mack Hollins, EDGE Clelin Ferrell, LS Trent Sieg, CB Sidney Jones, OT Jackson Barton
Derek Carr, QB
The writing was already on the wall that the Raiders would not be bringing back Derek Carr after benching him in the last two games of the 2022 regular season. Since joining the team as a second-round draft pick in 2014, Carr has appeared in four Pro Bowls, leading the franchise in career passing yards (35,222), touchdowns (217), and quarterback rating (91.8).
Darren Waller, TE
After signing Darren Waller to a three-year extension last offseason, the Raiders shipped away their 2020 Pro Bowl tight end to the Giants. Waller was limited to just nine games last season, battling a hamstring injury, catching 28 passes for 388 yards, and three touchdowns. Since his breakout 2019 campaign, leading the team with 90-plus receptions and 1,140-plus yards in back-to-back seasons, Waller has had trouble staying on the field, missing 14 games over the last two seasons.
Foster Moreau, TE
Foster Moreau played four seasons with the Raiders since being drafted to the team as a fourth-rounder in 2019 and appeared in 61 regular season games, logging 91 receptions for 1,107 yards with 12 touchdowns. He posted career-highs in targets (54), receptions (33) and receiving yards (420) in 2022, operating as the starting tight end for most of the season.
Mack Hollins, WR
Mack Hollins posted a career year in 2022, finishing second on the team in targets (94), receptions (57), receiving yards (690) and receiving touchdowns (4), trailing only Davante Adams.
Schedule
Week 1 – @Denver Broncos (Raiders +3)
Week 2 – @ Buffalo Bills
Week 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 4 – @Los Angeles Chargers
Week 5 – Green Bay Packers
Week 6 – New England Patriots
Week 7 – @Chicago Bears
Week 8 – @Detroit Lions
Week 9 – New York Giants
Week 10 – New York Jets
Week 11 – @ Miami Dolphins
Week 12 – Kansas City Chiefs
Week 13 – Bye
Week 14 – Minnesota Vikings
Week 15 – Los Angeles Chargers
Week 16 – @ Kansas City Chiefs
Week 17 – @ Indianapolis Colts
Week 18 – Denver Broncos
Future Odds
DraftKings Sportsbook Wins Over/Under: 7.5 (+160/-190)
FanDuel/Caesars AFC West odds: +1500
The future is bleak for the Raiders, who will be entering their first season without Derek Carr since 2013, playing in a difficult AFC West conference. The team is already trending in the wrong direction with superstar players such as Josh Jacobs threatening to hold out next season. Although Jimmy Garoppolo did recently pass his physical, he’s far from a picture of health, missing 11 games over the past three seasons. Even with the heavy -190 juice, I’m still taking the under on 7.5 wins and staying away from their +1500 odds to win the division.
Best Bets
BetMGM: To Have Worst Regular Season Record (+1400)
Hovering anywhere from 6.5 to 7.5 over/under win total, the Raiders are tied to have the second-fewest wins, above only the Cardinals, whose win total sits at 4.5. With recent optimism surrounding Kyler Murray’s health, I think the Raidersare in contention to be the worst team in the NFL. The players are already disgruntled, and Josh McDaniel has yet to prove to be a competent head coach. They are already starting behind the 8-ball with Jimmy Garoppolo yet to practice with the team and have the tenth toughest schedule based on their opponent win percentage in 2022 (52.4%).
N/A: Jimmy Garoppolo Under Passing Yards
Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yards prop is still unavailable after recently passing his physical, but I will be leaning on the under depending on the line. Aside from the Raiders offense tanking next season, Garoppolo is one of the few players at the position who is a dog to start all 17-games next season. Over the last three seasons, Garoppolo has missed 21 games including the playoffs. Based on last season, McDaniels has shown no hesitation to pull his starting quarterback.
Caesars: Josh Jacobs Under 9.5 Rushing Touchdowns (-149)
Josh Jacobs is coming off a career year in 2022, handling 340 carries for a league-leading 1,653 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns, tied for third among all running backs. After getting slapped with the franchise tag, Jacobs was unable to reach a long-term deal with Las Vegas and is currently threatening to hold out. Even if Jacobs plays next season, repeating double-digit rushing touchdowns is a lot to ask for by any player. Since being drafted as a first-round selection by the Raiders in 2019, Jacobs has played more than 15 games in just one out of four seasons. In a recent zoom call conducted by Austin Ekeler, the running backs in the meeting, including Jacobs discussed the possibility of exaggerating minor injuries as leverage.
