NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
With the start of the 2023 NFL and fantasy football season around the corner, I will be going team by team recapping notable moves in the offseason, projecting their outlook for the upcoming league year. I’ll be using the FTN Prop Shop Tool to pick out my favorite bets with the best line available, today covering the Houston Texans. Stay up to date on the action placed by myself and the rest of the FTN crew in real-time with the FTN Bet Tracker. You can also follow @FTNAlerts on Twitter with push notifications turned on.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: Houston Texans
2022 Results
Record: 3-13-1, 4th in the AFC South
Season End: Missed the playoffs
Houston Texans Offseason Summary
Draft
1.2: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio St.
1.3: Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama
2.62: Juice Scruggs, C, Penn St.
3.69: Tank Dell, WR, Houston
4.109: Dylan Horton, EDGE, TCU
5.167: Henry To’oTo’o, LB, Alabama
6.201: Jarrett Patterson, C/G, Notre Dame
6.205: Xavier Hutchinson, WR, Iowa St.
7.248: Brandon Hill, S, Pittsburgh
C.J. Stroud, QB (1.2)
Stroud was the public favorite to be the No. 1 draft pick for the bulk of winter and spring before some week-of rumors suggested that teams preferred Will Levis. There has been a lot of talk around Stroud, often centered on the history of Ohio State quarterback prospects in the NFL. But little of it has considered Stroud, specifically. He was a tremendously successful college player who likely played his best game and teased an untapped athletic potential against his best competition in a 42-41 loss to Georgia in last season’s college football playoffs. Stroud has strong a chance as any quarterback in the class to make it as a professional.
Will Anderson, EDGE (1.3)
I personally hated the Texans’ trade-up and Will Anderson selection. It reeked of a divided front office and dismissed the analytical wisdom that teams tend to be too confident in their player evaluations and should favor multiple later picks over fewer high picks. But it’s impossible to hate Anderson, the player. He was incredibly productive with 27.5 sacks in 28 Alabama starts the last two seasons. And he should instantly be the best defensive talent on the Texans roster.
Tank Dell, WR (3.69)
Teams have leaned on college chemistry with their quarterback and wide receiver selections in recent seasons, most notably with former LSU Tigers Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase and Alabama Crimson Tide Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle. But the Texans apparently listened to No. 2 pick C.J. Stroud when he asked them to take Houston receiver Tank Dell after the two threw together at the combine. And while that seems like an unscientific way to spend a valuable Day 2 pick, Dell may have lasted longer than he should in the draft with his 4.49-second speed and standout 14.0% college touchdown rate.
Additions
Free agent signings: WR Robert Woods, S Jimmie Ward, DT Sheldon Rankins, TE Dalton Schultz, QB Case Keenum, TE Andrew Beck, CB Shaquill Griffin, DT Hassan Ridgeway, RB Devin Singletary, WR Noah Brown, EDGE Chase Winovich, EDGE Jacob Martin, LB Cory Littleton, LB Denzel Perryman, WR Steven Sims, RB Mike Boone, C Michael Deiter, T Greg Little, CB Darius Phillips, DT Byron Cowart, DT
Trade additions: G Shaq Mason
Shaq Mason, G
Bill Belichick earned his reputation as a trader or releaser of accomplished veterans a year early rather than a year late with some savvy moves off stars from Deion Branch to Jamie Collins. But his surprise trade of the seven-year Patriots guard Mason has yet to look brilliant. The veteran blew just 2.3% of his blocks in 2022, a similar rate as in his successful 2019 and 2022 seasons. And now Mason joins star left tackle Laremy Tunsil and second-round center Juice Scruggs to anchor what looks like a dramatically better blocking unit than a typical top-two quarterback pick has in front of him.
Dalton Schultz, TE
The Cowboys passed on a relatively inexpensive $11.3 million franchise tag offer, and the Texans landed Schultz for a meager $6.3 million deal. Those numbers suggest Schultz owes the lion’s share of his prolific 198 catches, 2,000 yards, and 17 touchdowns the last three seasons to Dak Prescott and an explosive Dallas passing game. But the veteran also ranked top 10 among regular tight ends with 1.55 yards per route run. Schultz should be a friendly short-yardage target for the rookie Stroud, but he also has a chance to mesh with the Texans offense and contribute into their hopeful competitive window.
Devin Singletary, RB
Bills fans have been quick to blame their former third-round running back for their traditional rushing inefficiency in recent season. But the Bills play a spread offense that makes double-teams difficult to scheme. And Singletary broke 20.0% or more of his tackles in three of his four seasons with his former team. He may be a bit undersized, but Singletary should complement incumbent Texans back Dameon Pierce perfectly. And the Texans added the useful veteran for a modest $2.5 guaranteed million contract.
Departures
WR Brandin Cooks, EDGE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, EDGE Mario Addison, G A.J. Cann, C Justin Britt, CB Tremon Smith, RB Rex Burkhead, TE Jordan Akins, WR Chris Moore, EDGE Rasheem Green, G Justin McCray, LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin, TE O.J. Howard, QB Kyle Allen, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, WR Phillip Dorsett, DT Taylor Stallworth, QB Jeff Driskel, RB Royce Freeman, S Jonathan Owens, R Darius Anderson, WR Drew Estrada
Brandin Cooks, WR
Cooks may have spurred some concerns of a potential decline in his age-29 season when he failed to record 1,000 receiving yards for just the second time in eight seasons. But Cooks can blame his circumstances as much as his own calf injury. The veteran suffered a more than 10% decline from a 75.9% catchable target rate in 2021 to a 65.6% rate in 2022. He could have rebounded from that with improved Texans quarterback play from rookie C.J. Stroud. But he makes more sense on a Cowboys team that is ready to win now while the Texans rebuild their receiver room with younger players like John Metchie and Tank Dell that better match Stroud’s timeline.
Okoronkwo broke out in his fourth professional season with 20 pass pressures, more than double his previous career high. Few people noticed since Okoronokwo translated that moderate pressure rate into a more modest 5.0 sacks and since he played for a three-win Texans team. But the Browns noticed and more than quintupled his previous deal with a $19 million contract. The Texans will miss Okoronokwo in the short term. But he was an older rookie at 24 years old in 2019, and so a transition from him to the much more talented rookie Will Anderson makes sense for their rebuild.
Justin Britt, C
The former second-round center Britt has some banner seasons with the Seahawks and even blew less than 1.0% of his pass blocks in 2016 and 2018. But Britt saw his tenure in Seattle end after a serious knee injury in 2019. And he managed just 12 starts in two seasons with the Texans between nagging injuries and personal reasons. The Texans released Britt his offseason, and he seems set to retire. The team will presumably start second-rounder Juice Scruggs in Week 1 of his rookie season.
Schedule
Week 1 – @ Baltimore Ravens (Texans+6.5)
Week 2 – Indianapolis Colts
Week 3 – @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 4 – Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 5 – @ Atlanta Falcons
Week 6 – New Orleans Saints
Week 7 – BYE
Week 8 – Carolina Panthers
Week 9 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 10 – @ Cincinnati Bengals
Week 11 – Arizona Cardinals
Week 12 – Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 13 – Denver Broncos
Week 14 – @ New York Jets
Week 15 – @Tennessee Titans
Week 16 – Cleveland Browns
Week 17 – Tennessee Titans
Week 18 – @ Indianapolis Colts
2023 Future Odds
DraftKings Wins Over/Under: 6.5 (+110/-130)
FanDuel/PointsBet: To Win AFC South (+1000)
Fresh off a 3-13-1 campaign, tied for the fewest wins in 2022, the Texans went through a complete overhaul this offseason, letting go of head coach Lovie Smith after a one-year stint. Smith became the third consecutive head coach to be fired coming off a single season after leading the team to a meaningless Week 18 victory that ultimately cost them the first overall pick. His replacement DeMeco Ryans was arguably the top head coaching candidate on the market, after leading the 49ers into the NFC Conference Championship behind the strength of the top-ranked defense in the league. Ryans will likely have a longer leash than his predecessors but has his work out for him, starting a rookie quarterback in year one. Since the fallout with Deshaun Watson, the Texans have been searching for a long-term answer behind center, starting four different quarterbacks in the last two seasons. They have high hopes for the Ohio State standout, C.J. Stroud, who has been nothing less than a winner, leading the Buckeyes to the College Football Championship in 2022, with a 21-4 career record as a starter. With that said, I’m still taking the under 6.5 wins, a number they have not cleared since 2019. Over the past three seasons, Houston has steadily gotten worse, winning just four games in back-to-back seasons (2020 and 2021) and only three last seasons, the fewest in franchise history. Doubling their win total in 2023 would already be an accomplishment on its own, but it would still hit the under. That has me staying away from their +1000 odds to win the division, which has surprisingly been a profitable investment. No team has won the AFC South more than the Texans over the past decade, who have finished first in the division six times since 2011.
Best Bets
BetMGM: Robert Woods Under 549.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The Texans quietly signed the 31-year-old veteran, Robert Woods to a somewhat significant two-year $15.25 million deal this offseason with $10 million fully guaranteed. Woods was released by the Titans as a cap casualty earlier in the offseason, posting a career-low 527 receiving yards in his lone season with the team. He didn’t look the same returning from a torn ACL, finishing 76th among qualified players in yards per catch (9.9) in 2022, failing to force a single missed tackle. Despite leading Tennessee in targets (91) and receiving yards, Woods was held under 549 receiving yards last season without missing a game. Now playing on a team with more target competition and the long-term goal in mind, it’s easy to see Woods get phased out down the stretch which has me taking the under on his 549.5 receiving yards prop.
DraftKings: John Metchie Comeback Player of the Year (+2800)
Texans’ 2022 second-round pick John Metchie missed the entirety of his rookie season after being diagnosed with promyelocytic leukemia. He was selected 44th overall in a loaded wide receiver class, despite tearing his ACL the previous season. After nearly two years removed from in-game action, Metchie made his preseason debut last season last week getting run with the first-team offense. Metchie has a unique opportunity to become an immediate contributor from day one, joining a wide receiver group that just lost Brandin Cooks after finishing 28th in receiving yards (2,154) and receiving touchdowns (9) in 2022. Metchie stood out on a roster littered with NFL talent in his final two seasons at Alabama, catching 151 passes for 1,142 receiving yards, and 14 touchdowns. In any other season, Metchie would almost be a lock-to-win Comeback Player of the Year, but he’s competing with early favorite Damar Hamlin, who is returning from a near-death experience.
