Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With the start of the 2023 NFL season around the corner, I will be going team by team recapping notable moves in the offseason, projecting their outlook for the upcoming league year. I’ll be using the FTN Prop Shop to pick out my favorite bets with the best line available, today covering the Baltimore Ravens. Stay up to date on the action placed by myself and the rest of the FTN crew in real-time with the FTN Bet Tracker. You can also follow @FTNAlerts on Twitter with push notifications turned on.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: Baltimore Ravens
2022 Results
Record: 10-7, 2nd in the AFC North
Season End: Lost 24-17 to Cincinnati in the Wild Card Round
Baltimore Ravens Offseason Summary
Draft
1.22 Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
3.86: Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson
4.124: Tavius Robinson, OLB, Mississippi
5.157: Kyu Blu Kelly, CB, Stanford
6.199: Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu, OT, Oregon
7.229: Andrew Vorhees, G, USC
Zay Flowers, WR (1.22)
Dynamic wide receiver from Boston College is already building chemistry with Lamar Jackson.
Trenton Simpson, LB (3.86)
Clemson star fortifies the Ravens dominant linebacking crew and could replace Patrick Queen after this season.
Tavius Robinson, OLB, (4.124)
Seven sacks and five forced fumbles for Ole Miss star last season.
Additions
Free agent signings: WR Odell Beckham, WR Nelson Agholor, CB Rock Ya-Sin
Odell Beckham, WR
Can the 30-year-old wideout rekindle his All-Pro skills? Caught five touchdowns after getting traded to Rams in the second half of 2021, then tore his ACL in the Super Bowl. Massive upside with Lamar Jackson.
Nelson Agholor, WR
The 30-year-old Agholor regularly finds his way to the end zone, with 28 receiving touchdowns since 2017.
Departures
RB Kenyan Drake, WR Demarcus Robinson, WR Sammy Watkins, TE Josh Oliver, OT Ja’Wuan James, OG Ben Powers, Edge Justin Houston, Edge Steven Means, Edge Jason Pierre-Paul, DE Calais Campbell, CB Kyle Fuller, CB Marcus Peters, S Chuck Clark
Kenyan Drake, RB
Veteran running back is the odd man out with J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill all healthy.
Sammy Watkins, WR
NFL career could be over for 30-year-old wideout who caught only three passes in three games with Ravens in 2022.
Led Baltimore wide receivers in catches (48), targets (75) and yards (458), always reliable. Robinson was the Ravens’ only receiver to play in all 17 games.
Ben Powers, OG
Signed four-year, $52 million deal with the Broncos. Powers is an elite run-blocker and strong all-around guard.
Justin Houston, Edge
Led Ravens with 9.5 sacks, but turned 34 years old in January. Totaled 14 sacks in two seasons with Baltimore.
Jason Pierre-Paul, Edge
The 34-year-old Pierre-Paul finished with just three sacks and 18 quarterback hurries in 14 games played.
Calais Campbell, DE
The six-time Pro Bowl selection was released to clear $7 million in cap space. Played 41 games over three years with the Ravens, posting 11 sacks and 36 quarterback hits.
Chuck Clark, S
Veteran leader was traded to the Jets to clear over $4 million in cap space.
Schedule
Week 1 – Houston Texans (Ravens -6.5)
Week 2 – @Cincinnati Bengals
Week 3 – Indianapolis Colts
Week 4 – @Cleveland Browns
Week 5 – @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 6 – Tennessee Titans
Week 7 – Detroit Lions
Week 8 – @Arizona Cardinals
Week 9 – Seattle Seahawks
Week 10 – Cleveland Browns
Week 11 – Cincinnati Bengals
Week 12 – @ Los Angeles Chargers
Week 13 – BYE
Week 14 – Los Angeles Rams
Week 15 – @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 16 – @San Francisco 49ers
Week 17 – Miami Dolphins
Week 18 – Pittsburgh Steelers
Future Odds
FanDuel: Wins Over/Under: 10.5 Wins (-102/-120)
Unibet/Second-Chance Bet: AFC North +260
The Ravens resiliency was on full display last season, overcoming myriad injuries and sneaking into the playoffs as a Wild Card. They won double-digit games for the fourth time in the last five seasons despite missing former MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson in the final five games. After inking a new deal this offseason, Jackson and the rest of the roster look much healthier entering Week 1 with plenty of new additions from the draft and free agency. With that being said, I still lean towards the under on 10.5 wins, which is a difficult number for any team to hit, especially in the gauntlet of the AFC North.I like the longer +260 odds to win the division and still think it’sviable without winning more than 10 games.
Best Bets
Caesars: Lamar Jackson Under 785.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Lamar Jackson has struggled to stay healthy, failing to play more than 12 games in back-to-back seasons. As a result, Jackson has been held under 785 rushing yards for two years in a row, after logging 1,000-plus rushing yards in 2019 and 2020. Jackson and the coaching staff have discussed limiting his rushing load while adding pass-catching weapons in Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham in the offseason. With new offensive coordinator Todd Monken in town, we’ll likely see a brand-new scheme, less reliant on the ground-and-pound attack. In his last three seasons in the NFL (2017-2019), Monken’s teams have all passed over 55% on early downs, never finishing outside the top 10 in early down pass rate. In comparison, since Jackson took over as the full-time starter in 2019, the Ravens’ early down pass rate sits at 49.5%, 25th among all teams during that span.
BetMGM: Mark Andrews Under 874.5 Receiving Yards
Since entering the league in 2018, Mark Andrews has cleared 874 receiving yards just one time in five seasons. Although I expect the Ravens to air it out more without Greg Roman as the playcaller, there are plenty of mouths to feed with the addition of first-round rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. Second-year players Rashod Bateman and Isaiah Likely also pose additional threats for targets in what still projects to be a low volume passing offense. Andrews is still the favorite to lead all pass catchers but is unlikely to command elite target share in his previous seasons. In 2022, Andrews was targeted on 28% of his routes, the third-highest rate at the position.
