NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
The month of July officially signals the NFL season is coming fast. Training camps have started this week, with 13 teams already working with rookies. The NFL Hall of Fame Game kicks off in just three weeks, which means it’s the perfect time to identify some fantastic season-long props.
The earlier we can find an edge in the season-long market, the better our chance of getting fantastic value. As training camps progress, we receive more information on critical variables such as competition, usage and potential injuries. As we enter the final stagnant time of the NFL betting market, let’s take a closer look at my favorite season-long prop bets from the AFC West.
(All my lines are what I saw as I wrote it. They might not match the odds you find when you read the article.)
NFL Player Futures Futures for 2023: AFC West
Russell Wilson 24.5 Passing Touchdowns
Think back to one year ago at this time. The predominant thought was Russell Wilson was going to have a career year, having been finally freed from the confining Seattle offense. Before the start of the 2022 season, the Broncos had a win total of 9.5, they were tied with the third-best odds to win the AFC, and Wilson had the seventh-best odds to win MVP.
Things have dramatically changed in just one season, but has the hate gone too far? Denver hired head coach Sean Payton to revive a proud Broncos franchise that finished just 5-12 last year, third-worst in the AFC. Based on historical results, all signs point to much improved Broncos offense under Payton’s guidance.
In his 18 years as an offensive coordinator or head coach, Payton’s teams have ranked inside the top 10 in total offensive yards an astounding 15 times. In Drew Brees‘ final season (2020), New Orleans ranks second in yardage differential, despite operating with a 41-year-old quarterback. Even Payton’s New York Giants offenses in 2001 and 2002 ranked inside the top 10, with limited offensive weapons.
It’s hard to understand how brutal the Broncos offense and specifically Wilson were last season. Using our FTN QB Stats Tool, we can see that Wilson ranked just 19th in passing touchdowns (16) and 32nd in completion percentage among quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts (60.71%). These are both substantially below his career averages of 28 touchdown passes and a 64.3% completion percentage.
Wilson will have a full complement of receiving weapons, including Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, a healthy Tim Patrick and second-round Oklahoma-speedster Marvin Mims (4.38 40-yard dash). There have already been reports of second-year tight end Greg Dulcich catching Payton’s attention in the offseason.
Everything lines up for a bounceback year for Denver. This offense suffered through myriad injuries, while also receiving inferior guidance from former head coach Nathaniel Hackett. I’m betting on Wilson to have positive regression to his career averages, especially in an offense led by Sean Payton.
The Pick
Russell Wilson Over 24.5 Passing Touchdowns (-112, FanDuel)
Austin Ekeler 8.5 Rushing Touchdowns
Teams reveal their feelings by their actions, not their words. Austin Ekeler asked for a trade this offseason after failing to come to an extension with the Chargers. Ekeler is entering the fourth and final year of a $24.5 million deal, and was scheduled to earn $6.25 million this season. The Chargers added almost $2 million in incentives and allowed Ekeler to become a free agent at the end of the season.
It’s clear the Chargers are not interested in a long-term deal with a 5-foot-9 running back that has been in the NFL for the past six seasons. If the 38 touchdowns over the past two seasons didn’t convince management, it’s hard to envision a productive 2023 making any difference for Ekeler’s contract.
Los Angeles will need to start preparing for life without Ekeler, which should lead to more touches from other running backs. In my recent interview with Chargers play-by-play announcer Matt Smith, he mentioned the importance of finding more carries for Joshua Kelley. The fourth-round pick from 2020 brings a 6-foot, 215-pound frame that is more suitable for goal line carries. Ekeler has never been a high-carry rusher, topping out at 204 and 206 carries the past two seasons. Kelley only received 69 carries last season, but struggled with injuries in the critical middle of the season. The Chargers tried to use Sony Michel as a viable option in the backfield, but his 2.9 yards per carry was too futile. The Chargers may also want to provide more opportunity in the backfield for last year’s fourth-round pick, Isaiah Spiller.
Even Ekeler himself has mentioned how he has worn down at the end of the season, and would like to see other running backs receive additional carries. With new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling plays, it’s easy to see a tandem backfield like Moore produced in Dallas with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard.
For a running back that has rushed for 25 touchdowns over the past two seasons, why is this number only 8.5? Using our FTN Player Utilization Tool, we see that Ekeler’s rushing touchdown rate is incredibly high for a running back that only saw 50% of the team’s carries.
The Pick
Austin Ekeler Under 8.5 Rushing Touchdowns (-115, Caesars)
More AFC West Props
My other favorite AFC West futures already appeared in my “5 NFL Player Props to Bet for 2023” article. Check out out for the rationales on these bets:
- Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs: Over/Under 36.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)
- Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers: Over/Under 29.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)
- Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers: Over/Under 575.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
