Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
To handcuff or not to handcuff.
That is the annual fantasy football question with running backs. Some like the security of securing the backup to an early-round running back, while others feel it is too conservative of a strategy to waste an extra draft pick on a player whose value is dependent on an injury. While this strategy can be effective in certain situations, there are also limited players to target, since most NFL teams feature committee backfields. However, given the popularity of drafting wide receivers in the early rounds, should we also consider handcuffing wideouts?
It is certainly true that wide receivers have a much lower injury rate than running backs, but it’s still valuable to identify players that could see a major role increase later in the season. This article will highlight the best “handcuff wide receivers” to target in fantasy football. These players are likely flex-level plays or bench stashes with very little starting upside at the moment. All the players on this list are currently the third option (or worse) in their team’s passing attack. However, they could see a major role increase in the case of injuries, or as the season progresses. If an injury occurs, they would likely ascend into higher volume and become a weekly starting option in fantasy lineups.
2023 Fantasy Football WR Handcuffs
Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals
Michael Wilson was Arizona’s third-round pick in this year’s draft and will likely start the season as the Cardinals’ WR4. Veterans Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore will serve as the top receiving options for an Arizona offense that will operate without star quarterback Kyler Murray for an extended period of time. However, both Brown (5-foot-9) and Moore (5-foot-7) are diminutive targets, leaving Wilson with a unique physical profile that could ascend the wide receiver depth chart quickly.
The only other competition for Wilson are a pair of veterans in Greg Dortch (5-foot-7) and Zach Pascal. The rookie’s third-round draft capital and lack of a prototypical X-receiver body on the roster, makes Wilson a perfect candidate to see a huge uptick in opportunity if Brown or Moore miss time. If that injury coincides with Murray’s return? Watch out.
Jonathan Mingo, Carolina Panthers
Jonathan Mingo is another rookie who is technically listed as the team’s WR4 but will likely see a much larger role as the season progresses. The Panthers depth chart lists newly acquired Adam Thielen, veteran DJ Chark and third-year underachieving wideout Terrace Marshall ahead of Mingo. However, the second-round Ole Miss product brings 4.46 speed with a 6-foot-1, 226-pound athletic frame. There were already reports that rookie quarterback Bryce Young has already formed a strong connection with Mingo and that he could become Young’s go-to receiver.
Thielen will turn 33 years old, and Chark has missed 27 games over his five-year career. Can Marshall really hold off Mingo? I have my doubts, which brings tantalizing upside with Mingo’s WR64 ADP.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cleveland Browns
It’s amazing how the draft community has already ascended Elijah Moore past Donovan Peoples-Jones on the Browns receiving depth chart. Moore is a very versatile wideout, who has been lining up all over the formation during training camp, but Peoples-Jones is still an immensely talented 6-foot-2 target with 4.48 speed. He is also highly motivated, playing the fourth and final year of his $3.5 million rookie contract, and becomes a free agent after this season.
Peoples-Jones almost doubled his receptions from 2021, posting 61 catches on a career-high 96 targets, with 839 receiving yards. Those numbers were produced with Jacoby Brissett and a subpar Deshaun Watson after suspension. I expect a much-improved Watson, which should lead to a vastly improved Browns offense. I’m heavily invested in Peoples-Jones, especially at his WR70 ADP on Underdog. It doesn’t take much to see the still 24-year-old providing a major fantasy impact with or without an injury to Amari Cooper.
Richie James, Kansas City Chiefs
Uncertainty provides opportunity.
There is much uncertainty in the Kansas City passing attack. After the dominant target share of tight end Travis Kelce, the Chiefs have five wideouts all vying for a place in Patrick Mahomes’ target share. While most favor second-year wideout Skyy Moore, oft-injured Kadarius Toney or rookie Rashee Rice, we suggest you consider a late-round investment in 5-foot-9 speedster Richie James.
James took a leap in 2023, establishing career-highs in receptions (57), receiving yards (569) and receiving touchdowns (4). That occurred in a New York Giants offense that ranked 22nd in passing percentage. He now joins a Kansas City attack that ranked eighth in passing volume, with a huge quarterback upgrade from Daniel Jones to Mahomes. James brings 4.4 speed and accumulated 49 targets over the Giants last six games, including the playoffs.
While James’ weekly production is limited, he certainly would see a huge uptick in fantasy production with an injury to any of the three receivers currently listed in front of him.
Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills
The speedy Khalil Shakir is technically listed as Buffalo’s WR4, behind Stefan Diggs, Gabe Davis and Trent Sherfield.
That won’t last.
Shakir was a fifth-round pick last season that brought massive production from Boise State. As a senior, Shakir totaled 77 receptions, 1,117 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, while averaging 6.2 yards per rush. Despite being buried behind the underwhelming Isaiah McKenzie last season, Shakir flashed his ability late in his rookie season.
Gabe Davis is coming off a very disappointing season, and Shakir would benefit quickly if Davis stumbles at the start of the season. Operating in one of the NFL’s best offenses (27.7 PPG, third in NFL), with an aggressive quarterback in Josh Allen, Shakir is one of my favorite late-round best ball picks with the potential for Flex consideration in redraft leagues.
Marvin Mims, Denver Broncos
I liked Marvin Mims as a late-round selection earlier this summer, but I expect him to rise up draft boards quickly after recent Broncos news.
Veteran Tim Patrick will miss the entire 2023 NFL season after tearing his Achilles in practice. This is a huge blow for Patrick, who missed all of last season with a torn ACL. We also learned that fourth-year wideout KJ Hamler will step away from the team indefinitely after being diagnosed with a heart issue. This puts second-round rookie Marvin Mims in a breakout spot as Denver’s current WR3.
Mims was Denver’s second-round pick from Oklahoma and brings elite 4.38 speed as well as coveted experience as a punt returner. He returned 33 punts in his three years with the Sooners, averaging 16 yards per return last season. Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton are firmly entrenched as Denver’s top receiving options, but Mims will now be the clear starter in three-receiver sets. Our own Jeff Ratcliffe identified Sutton as one of his top 15 players to target per ADP. But suppose he or Jeudy misses games?
Mims’ upside as the current WR72 on Underdog is as high as any late-round wideout and could see enormous weekly fantasy value in the event of an injury.
Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers
I couldn’t end this article without mentioning my favorite WR3 among all teams, the Chargers’ Quentin Johnson.
Los Angeles will likely see an increase in passing attempts under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who fell out of favor with a Dallas coaching staff that preferred to run the ball. Johnston was the team’s first pick in the draft and will be fed opportunities by an offensive coordinator that clearly plans to leverage his explosive athleticism. He has elite burst and a massive catch radius, measuring at 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds. Keenan Allen is 31 years old, and Mike Williams remains an inconsistent enigma. Johnston is already showing out in Chargers training camp.
Last year, Williams, Joshua Palmer, Allen and Austin Ekeler all crested 575 receiving yards, while tight Gerald Everett (555 receiving yards) and journeyman DeAndre Carter (538) fell just short. It’s not hard to project a solid fantasy season for Johnston, even as the WR3. However, if Allen and/or Williams again miss games (as expected), Johnston could be a consistent WR2 or better in an elite Chargers offense.
