2023 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: ADP Rumblings (7/25)

NFL training camps are starting to get underway, and the season is just a few weeks from starting. That means that you can expect to see weekly ADP rumblings as fantasy football news and highlights start to emerge from teams on social media, which historically can cause wild swings in ADP.

This article will take a different approach. Instead of focusing on the last two weeks, this article will track the biggest movers from when ADP rumblings started at the end of May up until this week when most teams are starting training camp. There may be some repeat names that you’ve seen throughout the summer in this article, but it will focus on whether the new price is worth paying for players as we get closer to the season.

Quarterback

Biggest Riser: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

(ADP: 171.4, up 26.7 spots)

The biggest riser among quarterbacks over the last two months is the 49ers’ Brock Purdy. There was plenty of uncertainty surrounding the second-year quarterback to start the offseason centered around both his health and the crowded San Francisco 49ers depth chart. However, there has been a steady drumbeat throughout the summer that Purdy would be the team’s starting quarterback when healthy and a growing belief that he will be healthy to start the season.

Purdy is coming off a surprising season where he went from Mr. Irrelevant in the 2022 NFL Draft to completing 67.1% of his passes for 1,374 yards and 13 touchdowns with just four interceptions. On the surface, Purdy averaged just 12.3 fantasy points per game, but if you remove his mop-up duty appearance and focus on his six to close the season, that number jumps up to 18.0. Purdy also had three top-10 quarterback finishes in his last five games but can be drafted as the QB24 in drafts at the moment. Time will tell if Purdy can maintain his torrid stretch to end the 2022 season, but that is a price worth finding out at.

Biggest Faller: Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders

(ADP: 211.8, down 24.4 spots)

Technically, Trey Lance (down38.7 spots) is the biggest faller at quarterback, but since the reason has been covered in the section above, we will shift focus to the next biggest faller, Jimmy Garoppolo.

Garoppolo was unexpectedly called to start for the 49ers last season after Lance suffered a broken ankle and looked good commanding the 49ers’ offense. The veteran quarterback completed 67.3% of his passes in 11 games, throwing for 2,437 yards and 16 touchdowns with just four interceptions. Unfortunately, Garoppolo also suffered a season-ending injury, leading the way for Purdy to take the helm for San Francisco.

The 49ers allowed Garoppolo to test free agency, and he eventually landed with Las Vegas to serve as a replacement for Derek Carr. However, his ADP has been in free fall this summer after reports surfaced that the quarterback underwent foot surgery in March, leading the Raiders to put an injury opt-out clause if he couldn’t pass the team physical. However, that hurdle has been cleared, which means we will get Jimmy Garoppolo starting in an offense that will feature Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers for the 2023 season.

Expect Garoppolo’s ADP to rebound going forward as fantasy managers start to work for pairings with Davante Adams. The veteran quarterback had highs and lows last season but did have a stretch of four top-10 finishes in six games in Weeks 5-11 in fantasy last season.

Running Back

Biggest Riser: Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns

(ADP: 165.3, up 33.7)

Cleveland opted not to resign Kareem Hunt and didn’t fill his position with anybody during the draft or in free agency. While the lack of moves has prompted Nick Chubb to settle in as the RB4 in ADP, there is still a non-zero chance that Cleveland will manage his workload by splitting carries with another option on the roster.

Enter Jerome Ford, Cleveland’s fifth-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Ford was mainly a return man during his first season with the Browns, carrying the ball just eight times for 12 yards. However, he now finds himself as the most likely beneficiary of Hunt’s departure. During his three seasons with the Browns, Hunt averaged 10.8 touches per game with Chubb in the lineup but saw his role increase dramatically if Chubb were forced to miss time.

It took fantasy gamers a while to catch up to the likelihood that Ford would have a role in Cleveland’s offense this season. However, he received the largest ADP bump of any running back in fantasy once they did. Ford is up 33.7 spots over the last two months on Underdog, but his ADP is still a reasonable RB52. Ford could be a major beneficiary of any injury to Chubb and is still a reasonable selection in the later round of fantasy drafts, even if you have to eat nearly three rounds of ADP compared to early offseason drafters.

Biggest Faller: Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals

(ADP: 195.4, down 26.2)

The offseason started with plenty of ambiguity regarding the Bengals’ backfield. Joe Mixon came off a productive but inefficient 2022 season, finishing with 3.9 yards per carry and just seven rushing touchdowns in 14 games in the Bengals’ pass-heavy attack. That, combined with news reports of Mixon being charged with aggravated menacing and a shooting on his property and a $10 million cap savings if he was released, led many to believe that Mixon’s time in Cincinnati would be ending this offseason.

Fantasy managers began the offseason assuming that 2023 fifth-round draft pick Chase Brown would be the likely heir apparent to Mixon in Cincinnati. In his final season with Illinois, Brown had 328 carries for 1,643 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns to go with 27 receptions for 240 yards and three receiving scores. However, Cincinnati also brought back veteran Trayveon Williams and still had receiving back Chris Evans on the roster.

Fast forward to today, and Mixon has agreed to take a pay cut with the Bengals in 2023 to remain on the roster and lead the backfield. That has led to a 26.2-spot drop in ADP for Brown compared to his early-offseason ADP. Brown may still have a role in the Bengals’ offense for the 2023 season (the team let Samaje Perine walk in free agency) and now can be drafted for a much more appropriate price as the RB60 in drafts. He is a chance to capture a piece of Cincinnati’s offense with minor risk in the late rounds of drafts.

Wide Receiver

Biggest Riser: Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals

(ADP: 129.1, up 47.8)

The biggest riser this offseason at the wide receiver position is the Cardinals’ Rondale Moore. The former second-round pick battled injuries throughout his second season that limited him to just eight games played, but produced when healthy. Moore saw his snap share jump to 82% in 2022, leading to 41 receptions (on 56 targets) for 414 yards and a touchdown.

The big leap for Moore came from Arizona’s decision to release veteran receiver DeAndre Hopkins during the offseason. That move likely signals that Marquise Brown and Moore will feature as the receivers in Arizona’s two wide receiver sets unless rookie Michael Wilson can emerge throughout training camp. That has led his ADP to jump 47.8 picks since the end of May.

However, there are reasons to be skeptical of Moore’s highly elevated ADP. For one, we don’t know what this offense will look like now that Kliff Kingsbury’s pass-heavy spread offense is gone and replaced by Jonathan Gannon a first-time offensive coordinator Drew Petzig (formerly Cleveland’s quarterback coach). Moore will have to prove his worth to a new coaching regime. Additionally, Arizona will be working with either a limited Kyler Murray at quarterback (after 2022’s ACL injury) or one of Colt McCoy or Clayton Tune at quarterback. That would signal a run-heavy approach that wouldn’t benefit Moore on the field.

There is some upside attached to taking Rondale Moore as the WR60 in current Underdog drafts, but there are also some obvious pitfalls as well. Moore feels like the kind of player that was a massive value at the start of the offseason, but worth fading at his current ADP in favor of players with more stable projections next season

Biggest Faller: Jalin Hyatt, New York Giants

(ADP: 213, down 48.4)

Jalin Hyatt entered the NFL draft process coming off winning the Biltenikoff Award with the Tennessee Volunteers thanks to 67 receptions for 1,267 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2022. Hyatt looked like one of the best deep threats in college football and an explosive playmaker in a wide receiver class that lacked speed. Unfortunately, Hyatt measured in at 6-foot-0 and 176 pounds at the combine before running a fast but not game-breaking 4.40. Additionally, teams noted that his college offense relied on formations and route combinations designed to open up receivers (instead of letting players rely on their route-running acumen), leading to Hyatt slipping in the draft. Hyatt was eventually selected in the third round of the NFL draft by the New York Giants.

The offseason didn’t do much to create hype for the rookie receiver. The Giants retained Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard and Wan’Dale Robinson while adding Parris Campbell, Jamison Crowder and Cole Beasley in free agency. Hyatt found himself running with the third team during OTAs even though Shepard and Robinson were working their way back from knee injuries. At the very least, it seems like Hyatt will be blocked early in the season by Slayton considering their matching skillsets as deep threat playmakers. Fantasy managers took note of those news blurbs, dropping Hyatt 48.4 spots in ADP since the end of May.

At this point, Hyatt is the WR82 in Underdog ADP and can be had in the final rounds of fantasy drafts. He is the kind of player that could finish the entire season without entering your lineup but has a big upside in a creative offense if he gets an opportunity.

Tight End

Biggest Riser: Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos

(ADP: 134.1, up 17.9)

The movement at the tight end position has been relatively quiet compared to other positions, but one big riser through the summer has been second-year tight end Greg Dulcich. During his rookie season, Dulcich struggled to navigate injuries, playing in just 10 games. When healthy, Dulcich showed the ability to command targets in Denver and flashed the upside that made him a third-round pick in the 2022 draft. The rookie finished his first season with 33 receptions on 55 targets for 411 yards and two touchdowns.

Fantasy managers were seemingly skeptical of Dulcich’s ability to compete for targets against Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton in new head coach Sean Payton’s offense. However, positive training camp reports and the upside of a competent passing offense have pushed Dulcich up 17.9 spots on Underdog since late May. While it is difficult to envision a path for Dulcich to lead Denver in targets, he remains a solid value as the TE11 on the Underdog platform.

Ultimately, there is some risk to drafting Dulcich. Russell Wilson may be cooked, and even if he isn’t, there is plenty of target combination from receivers like Jeudy, Sutton, Tim Patrick and 2022 second-round pick Marvin Mims. But if Dulcich can separate himself from the pack, then he could have a big role in a Sean Payton offense that has featured athletic tight ends over the course of his coaching career.

Biggest Faller: Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders

(ADP: 210.7, down 28.3)

By far the biggest faller at the tight end position has been 2023 second-round pick Michael Mayer. Mayer entered the draft cycle as arguably the best tight end in college football after a prolific career at Notre Dame that saw him rack up 180 receptions, 2,099 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns in three seasons. However, since the draft, all Mayer’s ADP has done is fall 28.3 spots in drafts.

Part of this can be attributed to the uncertainty of Jimmy Garoppolo’s status heading into the 2023 season. Another reason for the fall in ADP can be the historical struggles for fantasy production out of rookie tight ends. Finally, even in a best-case scenario, Mayer could find himself being utilized as a blocker in a run-heavy offense while competing for targets with Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers on passing downs. Mayer also has some competition for snaps with veteran tight end Austin Hooper to contend with.

Now that Garoppolo has passed his physical, there should be some ADP climbing for Mayer. He’s worth a shot in 3TE builds on Underdog given his collegiate production and pedigree, but ultimately it may be a very modest season of production in his first year with the Las Vegas Raiders.