NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
(Welcome to the FTN Fantasy NFL Coaching & Coordinator Series. All summer, our Adam Pfeifer will be looking at every team’s coaching staff through a fantasy football lens, to see what means what and how a fantasy manager can capitalize on it. Today: The Philadelphia Eagles.)
Philadelphia Eagles Head Coach: Nick Sirianni
Eagles head coach since 2021
Sirianni’s second season in Philadelphia was a memorable one. The Eagles were the best team in football over the course of the regular season, cruised through the NFC playoffs and battled the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl. They ultimately fell just short, but the Eagles have emerged as one of the three best teams in all of football during Sirianni’s tenure, and they have become arguably the most exciting team in all of fantasy football. Jalen Hurts is a superstar, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are both top-15 wideouts, Dallas Goedert is an elite tight end while the backfield has plenty of upside. Sirianni is an aggressive head coach, as the Eagles went for it on fourth down 28% of the time last season, good for the third-highest rate in the NFL. There are some questions surrounding the Eagles entering the 2023 season, however, including how different the offense might look with a new offensive coordinator coming in. But barring any crazy events, the Eagles should once again be one of the best teams for both fantasy and real football.
Offensive Coordinator: Brian Johnson
Florida OC and QB coach 2020, Eagles QB coach 2021-2022
Shane Steichen’s brilliant playcalling not only elevated the Eagles into an elite offense but also put him on the map as a possible head coaching candidate. The Indianapolis Colts liked what they saw and offered him the job. Like many teams do, Philadelphia stayed in-house with their next offensive coordinator, promoting Brian Johnson, who was the team’s quarterback coach 2021-2022. Johnson last ran an offense in 2020 at the University of Florida, where he led the Gators to elite FBS production. Florida averaged 39.8 points per game (eighth), 509.8 yards per game (seventh) and the most passing yards per game (387.6) in all of college football. During that season, Kyle Trask became a first-round draft selection, completing 68.9% of his passes for 4,283 yards, 43 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. Johnson not only did a tremendous job working alongside Trask but also helped a young Dak Prescott during his time as the quarterback coach at Mississippi State 2014-2016. And, of course, we saw what Jalen Hurts just did this past season, as the franchise quarterback might have won MVP if he didn’t miss two of the final three games of the season. Johnson and Hurts have actually known each other for quite a long time, while Johnson tried to recruit Hurts while he was at both Florida and Mississippi State.
| Quarterback | CMP% | Passing TDs | Passing Yards | Yards Per Attempt |
| Dak Prescott (2015) | 66.2% (16th) | 29 (15th) | 3,793 (15th) | 8.7 (20th) |
| Kyle Trask (2020) | 68.9% (11th) | 43 (1st) | 4,283 (2nd) | 10.9 (8th) |
| Jalen Hurts (2022) | 66.5% (11th) | 22 (14th) | 3,701 (10th) | 8.0 (3rd) |
It seems like the Eagles will run a very similar offense to what Steichen ran, which makes sense considering they averaged 29.1 points per game and were a few plays away from a Super Bowl title. So what did that offense look like?
Heavy RPO Usage
The run-pass option was the focal point of the Philadelphia Eagles offense in 2022. And they ran it to perfection.
Jalen Hurts led the entire NFL in plays (148), total yards (1,156), pass attempts (122) and passing yards (1,068) off RPO this past season. As a team, roughly 20% of the Eagles’ offensive play calls were RPO, while their 251 total plays off the play type were the third-most in all of football. Hurts was outstanding off the play type, completing 64.7% of his passes with 11 touchdowns, just two interceptions and 8.8 yards per attempt. These plays are designed for Hurts to make split-second decisions on whether to hand the ball off or hold onto it and throw to an open part of the defense, which usually depends on what he is seeing pre-snap. If a linebacker or safety is creeping close to the line of scrimmage, Hurts would keep the ball and fire a strike, often to A.J. Brown, who was the focal point of the Eagles RPO passing attack. Because the RPO requires quick decisions, the slant route was often used out of this concept. Brown dominated off the route, leading the league in targets (34) and receiving yards (386) off slants, according to PFF. He was more often than not the first (and sometimes only) read out of RPOs. According to FTN Data, Brown had a whopping 36% target share off the play type, which helped him also finish fifth in the NFL in first-read targets with 130. With how unstoppable Brown is on slant routes over the middle of the field, he should once again benefit from the RPO-heavy scheme in 2023.
Explosive Plays
The Eagles passing attack had a very methodical approach each and every week. If they were facing a team that could stop the run but was vulnerable against the pass, they would air it out. And if they faced a team that couldn’t stop the run, they would lean on the rushing attack. Philadelphia’s passing scheme was difficult for opposing defenses to slow down. They would start by taking defenses out of that Cover-2 shell by throwing intermediate passes over the middle of the field. 20.7% of Hurts’ pass attempts were to the short middle portion of the field last season, which were a lot of those slant passes to A.J. Brown that we discussed. But at the same time, roughly 14% of Hurts’ attempts also traveled 20-plus yards down the field, as the Eagles did a tremendous job of dictating what coverages opposing defenses had to play. As a result, only Geno Smith and Aaron Rodgers had more deep touchdown passes than Hurts’ 11 last season, while sporting an average depth of target of nearly 31 yards on such passes. This scheme did a tremendous job of generating explosive plays in the passing game, as the Eagles finished second in the league in 40-plus yard pass plays (13) and 20-plus yard plays (63). We know the Eagles have been one of the most efficient rushing attacks in football and they use that to set up the deep passing game. Hurts finished eighth among all signal callers in play-action dropback rate last season (31.4%).
Philadelphia mainly operated out of the shotgun formation last season. According to FTN Data, the Eagles were in the shotgun 89% of the time, the second-highest rate in football, while also lining up in the pistol formation six percent of the time, the third-highest rate. A whopping 95% of Hurts’ passes came from the shotgun and he was very productive, completing 66.9% of his passes for 3,567 yards, 22 touchdowns and six interceptions.
Designed QB Runs
Hurts was fantastic throwing the football last season, but he also gave opposing defenses nightmares in the run game. It was a huge part of Philadelphia’s offense, as Hurts easily led all quarterbacks in designed rushing attempts this past season with 123. He finished the season with 760 rushing yards and a whopping 13 touchdowns, as the Eagles consistently called his number from inside the 5-yard line. The Eagles’ patented quarterback sneak play was pretty much unstoppable last season, as the combination of the best offensive line in football and Hurts’ incredible strength were too much for opposing defenses. Hurts ultimately finished second in all of football with 20 rush attempts from inside the 5-yard line, accounting for 49% of Philadelphia’s total rush attempts from that part of the field. He scored nine touchdowns on those attempts and averaged an impressive 2.9 red zone carries per game, easily the most among all quarterbacks. Meanwhile, he had seven rushing attempts from the 1-yard line, and if teams continue to struggle stopping it, why wouldn’t the Eagles keep calling it?
Personnel
As we discussed, the Eagles primarily operated out of the shotgun formation with three wide receivers on the field. They ran 11 personnel a healthy 72% of the time last season, the eighth-highest rate in the league. 200 of Miles Sanders’ 259 rush attempts (77.2%) came out of the shotgun formation, averaging 5.0 yards per carry in those instances. The Eagles were also one of the few teams to actually run some 13 personnel (three tight ends), doing so 7% of the time, the ninth-highest rate in football. One thing we didn’t really see from this Philadelphia offense was the use of pre-snap motion, as they used it on just 19% of their plays, the lowest rate in the league. Brown and DeVonta Smith combined for just 15 total targets when in pre-snap motion and if Brian Johnson implements more movement in this offense, as scary as it sounds, the Eagles could be even more dangerous.
Pace
We’ll see if Brian Johnson wants to continue to play fast like we have seen from Steichen’s offenses but if he runs a similar offense from this past season, the Eagles will be towards the top of the league in pace. In 2022, Philadelphia ranked eighth in the league in average seconds per snap (26.8). Meanwhile, only the Cardinals ran no-huddle more often than the Eagles, who did so a healthy 21.4% of the time. Explosive plays and a fast-paced offense? Yeah, the Eagles are obviously a team we absolutely love for fantasy football.
Defensive Coordinator: Sean Desai
Bears DC in 2021, Seahawks defensive assistant in 2022
With Jonathan Gannon taking the head coaching job in Arizona, the Eagles had to replace both of their coordinators from last season. Sean Desai, who was the defensive coordinator in Chicago in 2021, will now run the defense in Philadelphia. Before Desai was calling defensive plays for the Bears, he was a defensive quality control coach 2013-2018, working alongside Vic Fangio. If Desai implements anything he learned from Fangio, the Eagles will likely run plenty of two-high looks with minimal blitzing. During his 2021 season in Chicago, the Bears posted the league’s 10th-lowest blitz rate at 22.6%.
Fantasy Football Takeaways
A Super Bowl appearance and an MVP-caliber season? Yeah, it is safe to say Jalen Hurts had himself quite the breakout campaign in 2022. Hurts was unbelievable, passing for 3,700 yards, 22 touchdowns and six interceptions, while adding 760 rushing yards and an additional 13 touchdowns. He led all quarterbacks in both fantasy points per game (25.6) and fantasy points per dropback (0.71), while finishing as a top-six fantasy signal caller in 12 of 15 games. The floor and ceiling combination is as high as any player in all of fantasy football and Hurts remains in a great situation, playing behind the league’s best offensive line, while throwing to one of the league’s top wide receiver duos. We’ll see if the designed rushing attempts come down, but Hurts should still remain heavily involved around the goal line, while he ranked top five in adjusted completion percentage when throwing the football (78%). Whether you have him first, second or third, Hurts belongs in your top-three.
With Miles Sanders in Carolina, the Eagles have almost an entirely new backfield in 2023. The team added both D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny this offseason, while Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott are still in town. There is a lot of excitement surrounding Swift in Philadelphia, but I am tempering expectations.
If you really think about it, the move to Philadelphia may not be all that different from his role with the Lions last year. In 2022, Swift saw a limited workload, averaging just 10.5 touches per game. Detroit was very comfortable with Jamaal Williams and worried about Swift’s injury history. He even lost touches to Craig Reynolds at times. In Philadelphia, he’ll join a backfield consisting of Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Gainwell, which could limit his overall volume and touchdown upside, especially if Jalen Hurts remains as involved in the Eagles rushing attack as he was last season. Hurts finished the year with 20 rushing attempts from inside the 5-yard line. The only player in football with more attempts from that area of the field in 2022? You guessed it — Jamaal Williams with 28. Add the fact that Penny is also on the roster, and it seems unlikely that Swift sees ideal short-yardage usage.
What has really helped Swift make up for a limited workload over the years has been his involvement in the passing game. Swift averaged 52 receptions over his first three seasons in Detroit and over the last two seasons, he has ranked 2nd (18.4%) and sixth (15.1%) among running backs in target share. I would be shocked if his target share was close to that in Philadelphia, as the Eagles sported the lowest running back target share in the league this past season at 12.1%. And while the Eagles clearly like Swift, they also really like Gainwell, especially on third downs. Swift is a low-end RB2 for me in Philadelphia.
A.J. Brown’s first season in Philadelphia was special. He caught 88 passes for 1,496 yards and 11 touchdowns, finishing the year as the WR5 in all of fantasy. Brown’s 130 first-read targets were tied for the fifth-most in the league, easily a career-high, along with his 145 targets, 28% target share and 88 receptions. His efficiency remains elite, as Brown ranked third in yards per route run (2.59), fourth in yards after the catch per reception (6.4), fourth in yards per target (10.4) and fifth in yards per reception (17.0). We did see DeVonta Smith start to take on a larger role down the stretch, but Brown is still very clearly an elite fantasy wideout.
DeVonta Smith enjoyed an impressive breakout campaign last season, hauling in 95 passes for 1,196 yards and seven touchdowns. He finished his sophomore campaign top-10 in snap share (91.7%), receptions (95), receiving yards (1,196) and fantasy points among wide receivers. We even saw him operate as Philadelphia’s WR1 down the stretch, ahead of A.J. Brown. From Week 10 on, Smith averaged 9.2 targets, 6.1 receptions, 85.3 receiving yards and 17.9 PPR fantasy points per game. Brown, meanwhile, averaged 8.4 targets, 5.0 receptions, 86.4 receiving yards and 16.9 PPR points per game during that same span. Smith recorded four 100-yard games during that stretch, as he made plays all over the field, but especially against man coverage. According to FTN Data, Smith posted an impressive 30.4% target share against man coverage last season (12th), while averaging 2.84 yards per route run (12th) and 1.91 fantasy points per target (ninth) against the defense. As expected, the concerns regarding Smith’s frame coming into the league were completely overblown, as he not only torched man coverage, but did it while operating on the outside about 75% of the time this past season. He’s seemingly always on the field, too, as he ran a route on 91% of Philadelphia’s pass plays, the seventh-highest rate in the league. Smith can easily post a consecutive top-15 campaign in 2023.
If it weren’t for a few missed games, Dallas Goedert would have been a top-four fantasy tight end with ease. Always efficient, Goedert was fifth among tight ends in fantasy points per game (11.8), third in yards per route run (2.24), first in yards per target (10.3), fourth in yards per reception (12.8) and second in yards after the catch per reception (7.6). It helped Goedert reach at least 60 receiving yards in seven of his 11 full games last season. The only thing you’d like to see more of from Goedert is usage around the end zone, as he has seen just four end zone targets over the past two seasons.
