Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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That means you need to nail your picks. Most of the money is won up top, so it’s important to identify players that will finish strong at the end of the season. In this article, I am going to highlight a few players that should elevate your roster in the second half of the season and help carry you through the playoffs. You can track ADPs and rankings using the Underdog tool on FTN Fantasy. Sign up for Underdog Fantasy with promo code “FTN” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
(ADP: 42.2, RB18)
Last season, the Jets ranked bottom of the league in rush attempts (380), averaging 22.4 rushes per game. They addressed the run game by adding the No. 1 running back in the 2022 NFL Draft in Breece Hall. They even gave up a fifth-round pick to move up just three spots and lock up their guy. Through three seasons at Iowa State, Hall accounted for 4,675 yards from scrimmage on 800 touches and 56 touchdowns in three seasons, eclipsing 20 touchdowns in back-to-back seasons. He had a 95th percentile college dominator rating, averaging 5.8 yards per carry and a 10.7% target share. Hall’s biggest threat in the backfield is Michael Carter, who the Jets drafted a season ago. Carter showed promise in his rookie season but struggled to stay on the field, dealing with injuries. Although Hall may lose touches early in the season, the Jets will give him every opportunity to take over the backfield. Over the past decade, a rookie running back has finished inside the top 15 every season and top-10 in nine out of ten seasons. Hall is currently going as the RB18.
Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(54.6, WR28)
In his second season with Tom Brady, Chris Godwin led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in targets (127), receptions (98) and receiving yards (1,103) through 14 games. He was the WR8 before tearing his ACL in a Week 15 matchup against the Saints. Godwin is currently going outside the top-24 wide receivers (WR28) in the fifth round of best ball drafts. His status for Week 1 is still in the air after undergoing ACL surgery in January. Although he managed to stay off the PUP list and has already begun practicing, there is no telling if he will be 100% at the start of the season. Head coach Todd Bowles stated he is “better than where he was but not where he needs to be, we don’t put a timetable on it.” The Buccaneers signed Godwin to a three-year, $60 million contract extension and have no intention of rushing him back until he is ready. Once Godwin is up to speed, he will provide WR1 value, operating as the No. 1 option in one of the most pass friendliest offenses. In 2021 the Buccaneers ranked first in pass attempts, deep ball attempts, red zone attempts, pace of play, air yards and passing touchdowns.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Arizona Cardinals
(72.8, WR36)
In his first season with the Cardinals, DeAndre Hopkins finished as the WR4, catching a career-high 115 passes on 160 targets for 1,407 yards and six touchdowns. Unfortunately, he had trouble staying on the field last season, missing eight games (including the postseason) due to hamstring and knee injuries. Although Hopkins appeared in just 10 games in 2021, he led the team in red-zone targets (14) and receiving touchdowns (8). Even in an injury-riddled season, Hopkins was a top-20 receiver in points per game (WR18). The Cardinals made a blockbuster trade on draft day, sending their 2022 first-rounder to the Ravens for Marquise Brown and a third-round pick. That came only days before the league announced Hopkins would serve a six-game suspension for a violation of the performance-enhancing drug policy. While Brown may have the shower narrative in his favor, Hopkins will still be the No. 1 option for Kyler Murray once he returns in Week 7. Before last season, Hopkins only missed two games in his entire career, eclipsing 1,100 receiving yards and 150 targets in six of his past seven seasons. Teams that can weather the storm for the first six weeks will be rewarded in the second half of the season.
Treylon Burks, WR, Tennessee Titans
(87.0, WR43)
The Titans pulled off a big surprise in the draft, dealing A.J. Brown to the Eagles for a first- and third-round pick. They used that newly acquired first-rounder on Treylon Burks with the 18th pick. Burks had a productive three-year stint in Arkansas, catching 146 passes for 2,399 and 18 touchdowns. At 6-foot-2 and 225 pounds, the former Razorback comps favorably to Brown, who led the Titans in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns in each of the past three seasons. The Titans also traded a sixth-round pick for Rams wide receiver Robert Woods. Woods tore his ACL last season and is questionable to be ready by Week 1. Burks has large shoes to fill but does not have to replicate 100% of Brown’s production in year one. He finds himself in an ideal landing spot with stable quarterback play and minimal target competition. Burks has fallen down the depth chart and draft boards after struggling with conditioning and asthma. His talent will win out through the course of the season, and his big play upside will come to fruition when it matters most.
Ken Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks
(109.5, RB37)
After a decade of dominance, the Russell Wilson era finally came to an end in Seattle. The Seahawks traded the All-Pro Bowl quarterback to the Denver Broncos for a big haul. Rather than using their newly acquired draft capital to address the quarterback position, they decided to bolster the run game. With the 41st pick, the Seahawks drafted Ken Walker out of Michigan State. Last season, Walker rushed for 1,636 yards and 18 touchdowns, leading all of college football in forced missed tackles (89). Walker was arguably the best pure rusher in the class, with elite speed, clocking in at a 4.38-second 40-yard-dash at the NFL combine. He was the second running back off the board, just five picks after Breece Hall. Walker’s ADP has steadily declined after reports suggested that Rashaad Penny is the early favorite to lead the Seahawks backfield and could see upward of 20 carries a game.
Penny closed the season strong, leading all running backs in touches (92) and yards (692) in the season’s final five games. His 6.3 yards per carry and 4.5 yards after contact per carry ranked first among all backs with at least 50 carries. Like most of his career, Penny had trouble staying on the field, missing seven games while dealing with multiple leg injuries. Since entering the league in 2018, Penny has appeared in only 37 out of a possible 67 games. The Seahawks allowed Penny to test the free agency market before re-signing him to a one-year, $5.8 million contract. Although Penny may be the Week 1 starter, it is unlikely he will remain healthy for the entire season. Walker is going more than a full round after Penny and could take over the backfield by the middle of the season. Even in a low-scoring offense, volume is king in fantasy football, and Walker should see plenty of it. There is no denying that Carroll wants to run the ball, and he may not have a choice with a combination of Geno Smith and Drew Lock under center. The Seahawks also have an enticing matchup in Week 17 against the New York Jets. Last season, the Jets’ defense ranked 29th in rush yards allowed per game (138.3) and gave up the most rushing touchdowns in the league (28).
Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions
(157.0, WR73)
After selecting Aiden Hutchinson with the second overall pick in this year’s draft, the Lions traded back into the first round and drafted Jameson Williams at pick No. 12. The team’s aggressiveness to move up and make a divisional trade with the Minnesota Vikings speaks volumes to how the franchise feels about their new receiver. Williams spent the first two seasons of his collegiate year buried on the Ohio State Buckeye’s depth chart before breaking out as a Junior at Alabama. In his one and only season with the Crimson Tide, Williams notched 79 receptions for 1,572 yards and 15 touchdowns. He had a real case to be the No. 1 wide receiver in the class before suffering a knee injury. Williams tore his ACL in January in the middle of the national championship game. He’s started training camp on the PUP list with an unclear timeline to return. When asked about his status, head coach Dan Campbell said, “We’re going to do this thing the right way, and when he’s ready, he’ll be ready.” Williams’ ACL surgery lines up with Chris Godwin, who is already practicing and likely to suit up in Week 1. Once Williams gets on the field, he’ll bring a much-needed deep threat element desperately lacking in the Detroit offense. He was top-five in the country in yards on deep throws (20-plus yards downfield), while the Lions completed only 16 deep passes in 2021. His game-breaking speed and 19.9 yards per catch should help elevate Jared Goff, who finished bottom of the league in average depth of target (6.35 yards) last season.
