100 Questions: The Pressing Fantasy Football Issues Entering 2022 — AFC West

(As we head toward training camp and the start of preseason, our own Daniel Kelley is asking — and attempting to answer — the most pressing questions around fantasy football for 2022. This is 100 Questions.)

As I write this, on DraftKings Sportsbook, the Las Vegas Raiders have the lowest over/under for wins in the AFC West, at 8.5. In other words, the team expected to be the worst in the division is still going as a .500 team. In other other words, this division could be really good in 2022. Of course, the flip side to this is that the high level of competition out west hurts the top side, as the Chiefs’ 10.5-win over/under is only a half-win higher than the lowest division-leading total. There could be some slugfests in 2022.

Denver Broncos

The last quarterback drafted by the Denver Broncos to amass even 8 wins as a starter in a career was … Tim Tebow, back in 2010-2011. The team fell into four years of Peyton Manning after that and has been stuck in a vicious cycle ever since. They aren’t likely to get many homegrown QB wins in 2022 either, but if Russell Wilson delivers anything like what Manning did, the Broncos aren’t going to care.

41. How Should We Value Javonte Williams with Melvin Gordon Re-Signed?

Early this offseason, Melvin Gordon was a free agent and Javonte Williams was, in some drafts, a top-five pick. Then Gordon didn’t find a home elsewhere, the Broncos brought him back, and Williams is … what, exactly? He was the PPR RB17 last year, with Gordon at RB21. Consolidate those into one player and we’re cooking. Keep it split and we aren’t so much.

Best Answer: With Gordon back, there’s not much reason to expect the full Williams breakout we hoped for at the start of the offseason. But we should also expect a more Williams-heavy split than the “exactly 203 carries each” they got last year. Together, that makes Williams worthy of a pick in the mid-range RB2 field, with the possibility of climbing as high as a back-end RB1. But per ADP right now, he’s going as the No. 9 RB, which means he more or less has to hit his top end. Jeff Ratcliffe’s fantasy rankings have him as the RB17, which is a bit lower than I’d probably go, but much closer to reality. The draft community needs to pump the brakes just a tad.

42. How Do We Handle These Receivers?

You could easily argue that the Broncos’ WR4 (whoever you think it is) is the best WR4 on any team in the league. None of Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick or KJ Hamler (again, your order might differ) has established himself as a star, but all four have proven to at least be valuable in the league. That’s good for the Broncos, because more weapons is always better than fewer weapons, but it presents quite the fantasy quagmire.

Best Answer: Sutton was my favorite receiver in the 2018 NFL Draft, and Jeudy was my favorite in the 2020. And that doesn’t matter much in 2022, not when they’re both going as WR3s or better while you can get Patrick at WR63 and Hamler — who is still recovering from a dislocated hip and a torn ACL — at WR115. If I’m picking one of the top two, it’s probably Jeudy for the slight discount (because we really don’t know how this will shake out), but if I’m picking only one of the four, given the lofty prices of the top two and the questions about Hamler’s recovery, it’s Patrick, at a tiny price and with the chance to significantly outproduce.

43. Is the Albert Okwuegbunam Hype Well Placed?

Getting Noah Fant out of town — and getting Russell Wilson in — brought some big-time hype to 2020 fourth-round tight end Albert Okwuegbunam. After 451 yards and 3 touchdowns over two injury-plagued seasons (he’s played 18 of a possible 33 games), the job was all Okwuegbunam’s, and he had a star quarterback to boot.

Best Answer: The arrival of a third-round rookie at tight end wouldn’t concern you about, say, Mark Andrews or Kyle Pitts. But for all the appeal of Okwuegbunam, the next time he has 500 receiving yards in a season as a tight end will be the first (he played wide receiver in high school and topped out at 466 in college). He’s no sure thing. And on an offense with two relevant running backs, four relevant receivers, and with a new tight end breathing down his neck? I’m out, even at his TE18 ADP.

Kansas City Chiefs

In the last six years, six of the eight divisions have had at least three different teams finish first. The AFC East has been won by the Patriots four times in that span, the Bills twice. But the AFC West has been solely the Chiefs’ domain in that time, with the team winning six straight division titles. Can they make it seven?

44. How Will the Tyreek Hill Departure Affect Patrick Mahomes?

Since taking over the starting job at the start of 2018, Patrick Mahomes has not only been the top fantasy quarterback, he’s running away with the crown, with a total of 1,440.2 fantasy points that is more than 130 ahead of second-place Aaron Rodgers and only three QBs (Rodgers, Josh Allen, Tom Brady) within even 200 points. But that was almost entirely with Tyreek Hill. Does Hill moving to Miami this offseason hurt?

Best Answer: Well, first off, let’s use the FTN Fantasy splits tool to look at Mahomes in games with a full-go Hill versus games without Hill or with him limited. Call it at least 20 snaps:

It’s a small sample, but this is fascinating — Mahomes is virtually an identical quarterback with and without Hill, but he gets there differently, with more touchdowns but also more interceptions with Hill on the field. That tells me he takes shots a bit more when Hill is around, for better and for worse. Will Mahomes be more conservative now? And will that bite him in the long run? I’m not pretending Mahomes is falling out of the QB1s or even down that tier, but he’s going as the QB2 and I’d rather take him third or fourth. Temper your expectations … just a little.

45. With Hill Gone, Who Is the WR1 Here?

Over the last five years, Hill unsurprisingly has the Nos. 1-5 seasons in receiving yards among Kansas City wide receivers. The leading non-Hill receiver in that time was Mecole Hardman last year, at 693 yards, with Sammy Watkins in 2019 the only other receiver to top 570 yards. Now, Hill is gone. Hardman is still around, and the team signed JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling and drafted Skyy Moore to try to Voltron together a replacement.

Best Answer: Obviously, Travis Kelce is the top pass-catcher in Kansas City, but then that’s been true for a generation of football and there’s still been plenty for Hill. After that, there are as I see it two candidates: JuJu Smith-Schuster — who somewhat flamed out in Pittsburgh after Antonio Brown’s departure but could be a weapon particularly in PPR and is going as WR35 in drafts — and Hardman—who has the familiarity with this offense and has seen his per-game PPR numbers climb from 8.1 points to 11.4 without Hill in his career and is virtually free in drafts. Valdes-Scantling will have the occasional moments, and if Moore comes on strong as a rookie I’ll accept being wrong, but for me, I’m not looking beyond JuJu or Hardman.

46. Is Clyde Edwards-Helaire a Post-Hype Sleeper?

Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the RB5 in ADP as a rookie in 2020. He finished as the RB22. He was the RB14 in ADP last year. He finished as the RB29 in points per game (accounting for his missed time). Now, he’s the RB27 in PPR for 2022. Can he finally exceed expectations?

Best Answer: Take a look at the FTN Fantasy advanced stats, and there isn’t much in Edwards-Helaire’s track record thus far that should excite you for fantasy. The team doesn’t use him much down deep (he had three carries inside the 5 last year compared to 14 for Darrel Williams), he doesn’t break that many long runs (nine carries of 10-plus yards, barely a top-60 number), 55 receptions across two seasons (not in the top 30). If you’re an Edwards-Helaire believer in 2022, it comes from one or both of two places: Lack of competition (his backfield mates are the underwhelming Ronald Jones and Jerick McKinnon) and the offensive line (second in our FTN Fantasy offensive line rankings). Those are actual decent points. CEH isn’t a top-15 back, but beating RB27 wouldn’t shock me. Small value here, but value nonetheless.

Las Vegas Raiders

Before 2021, three teams in NFL history had made the playoffs in a season where they had a coaching change — the 1942 Chicago Bears, the 1951 Los Angeles Rams and the 1961 Houston Oilers. In other words, what the Raiders did last year — snagging a Wild Card berth despite switching from Jon Gruden to Rich Bisaccia as head coach after Week 5 — was almost unprecedented. Can they build on that?

47. What Does the Davante Adams Arrival Mean for Derek Carr?

Derek Carr is entering his ninth season as a quarterback who has never finished outside the top 20 in fantasy or inside the top 10. He’s been perfectly adequate, a fine streamer, but never much beyond that, in part because a lack of top receiver talent. He had Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree early in his career, but since they left, the best receiver the Raiders have offered Carr is last year’s Hunter Renfrow breakout. Enter Davante Adams, not only the best receiver Carr has ever had, but one of the best receivers the league has ever seen.

Best Answer: Want a slightly hot take? Davante Adams matters for Carr … a little. He doesn’t run (career high 140 rushing yards). He just posted his career-high in passing yards by more than 700 last year. Could that increase again? Sure. By a lot? Seems unlikely. Give Carr 200 more yards and 6 more touchdowns on last year’s total and he climbs from QB14 all the way to … QB12. Adams raises his ceiling a bit, but ultimately, it doesn’t move the needle more than “a bit.”

48. What Does the Davante Adams Arrival Mean for Darren Waller? 

Darren Waller is the TE3 over the last three years combined, a little behind Mark Andrews and almost 100 points clear of No. 4 George Kittle. He’s done so on a massive 8.26 targets per game, behind only Travis Kelce’s 8.83 — no other tight end has averaged more than 7.42. Waller’s numbers are great, but if he takes a hit in targets with the arrival of a superstar, how much does that hurt his upside?

Best Answer: If you recall the leadoff piece to this series, Question 3 discussed my increased confidence in Tier 3-plus in tight end but my correlated decreased confidence in Tier 2, and Adams’ impact on Waller is a part of that. If Waller falls from 8-plus targets per game to 7 or even fewer, his fantasy upside drops by more than 10%. A Waller with the upside of a Dalton Schultz or a T.J. Hockenson is an overdrafted Waller.

49. Is Josh Jacobs Going Overdrafted or Underdrafted?

Josh Jacobs has been in the league three years. He has been the PPR RB21, RB8 and RB12 in his career. He’s rushed for over 1,000 yards twice and averaged over 9 touchdowns a season. He’s only 24. On the flip side, the Raiders gave Kenyan Drake big money last season, then hired Josh McDaniels as the new head coach this offseason, and among his first moves were (a) declining Jacobs’ fifth-year option, (b) signing Ameer Abdullah, Brandon Bolden and fullback Jakob Johnson, and (c) drafting Zamir White. What does it all mean for Jacobs in 2022?

Best Answer: Cold and to the point: Overdrafted. Jacobs is the RB18 in drafts right now, but our Jeff Ratcliffe has him 23^rd in his fantasy rankings. The Raiders’ offensive line is only 31^st in our FTN Fantasy offensive line rankings, basically “Kolton Miller and hope.” The team isn’t tying itself to Jacobs, still has Drake, and McDaniels brought in guys he has history with in Bolden and Johnson. Jacobs is still the RB1 in this backfield, but drafting him as a sure starter is a bad bet.

Los Angeles Chargers

Empty your mind, close your eyes and answer the first thing that comes into your head. How many times have the Chargers made the postseason in the last eight years? How many division titles do they have in the last 12? If you’re like me, it feels like the answers are actually more than the “one” and “zero,” respectively, that they actually are. Can the Chargers finally break through?

50. Has Mike Williams Overtaken Keenan Allen?

The Chargers took Mike Williams seventh overall in 2017. After a lost rookie season, he established himself as the team’s WR2 behind Keenan Allen for the next three years, then had his breakout last year, with career highs in targets (129), receptions (76), yards (1,146) and PPR points (246.6) en route to a WR12 finish … one spot and 11.2 points behind Allen. Williams turns 28 this season, Allen just turned 30. Should we value Williams higher now?

Best Answer: You saw the graph above. Now check out this chart:

Williams largely caught up with Allen last year, and it was almost entirely in spike games — his floor is more or less the same as ever. Williams was high-ceiling/low-floor, while Allen was low-ceiling/high-floor, only they got to basically the same place. There’s not much reason to expect that to change in a big way in 2022. Maybe that means you value Williams more in best ball, Allen in redraft, but the real answer is that it depends on what you want. If your roster is built around safe options, maybe you go for Williams for the ceiling. If you’re volatile, maybe take the security of Allen. Really, they’re close enough that any difference comes out in the wash.

51. What Does Isaiah Spiller Mean for Austin Ekeler?

Before 2021, Austin Ekeler had never topped 132 carries, 557 rushing yards or 3 rushing touchdowns in a season. He blew past all three numbers last year, to the tune of, respectively, 206, 911 and 12 (!). That’s in part because Ekeler is good, of course, but it’s also because the Chargers haven’t been able to find a competent pairing for him since Melvin Gordon left. Larry Rountree and Joshua Kelley combined to average 2.7 yards per carry. Justin Jackson was slightly better but did almost all his damage in a single game and left as a free agent. Enter Isaiah Spiller, the team’s fourth-round pick out of Texas A&M.

Best Answer: If Spiller is any count, Ekeler’s going to see less work. The player and his GM (Tom Telesco) have both gone on record this offseason as saying they want him to have fewer carries in 2022 — for all his virtues, Ekeler’s been one of the league’s worst backs on third- or fourth-and-short the last couple years, which was one of the issues plaguing the team in 2021. Ekeler will still get the most carries, and his receiving work will still make him one of fantasy’s best backs, but him going as RB2, RB3 in draft is too high. I’m fading.

52. Is Gerald Everett Worth a Flyer?

Gerald Everett is a 28-year-old entering his sixth season in the league, and his primary claim to fame in that time is as the player who had one of the worst games ever in the Seahawks’ Week 12 game against San Francisco last year, with two fumbles near the goal line and an end zone drop that fell into a defender’s arms. Now he heads back to Los Angeles, landing with the Chargers after spending his first four years with the Rams. 

Best Answer: The Chargers have only failed to produce a top-15 fantasy tight end twice in the last 18 years—2018, when the remains of Antonio Gates tried in vain to fill in for an injured Hunter Henry, and … last year, when Jared Cook’s lone year with the team didn’t produce much. Still, Cook managed a TE18 finish at age 34. It feels safe that Everett can at least compare to those numbers, if not best them. He’s available in the early 20s at tight end. Not that we’re digging around that late often, but if so, I have no issue taking a stab.