Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
(Knowing the right question to ask is as important as knowing the answer. In 100 Questions, FTN’s Daniel Kelley identifies the key fantasy football questions to ask heading into the 2021 NFL season. Today: The AFC West.)
Under Patrick Mahomes, the Kansas City Chiefs have won three straight division titles. But overall, the Chiefs have won the AFC West five years in a row, back to the days of Knile Davis, De’Anthony Thomas and Jeremy Maclin. It’s the longest current streak of division titles in the NFL, and the Saints are the only other team on a streak of more than two years.
But even as the Chiefs are still an elite team, the Los Angeles Chargers are pushing them, and every team in this division has some key conversations we need to have for fantasy.
Denver Broncos
The hopes of Aaron Rodgers heading to Mile High are fading rapidly, so the Broncos are going to have to make do with their 2019 second-rounder or the last pick of the 2014 first round to help them on their way to fantasy glory.
41. So for fantasy, do we want Drew Lock or Teddy Bridgewater to start?
Last year, Teddy Bridgewater averaged more completions per game than Drew Lock (22.7 to 19.5) on fewer attempts (32.8 to 34.1). Of course, that’s because Bridgewater never met a short pass he didn’t like, carrying a 6.99-yard aDOT, compared to 8.89 for Lock. Bridgewater averaged more yards and fewer interceptions, but fewer touchdowns. There’s not an Aaron Rodgers here, so the Broncos need to maximize their weapons with one of these guys.
Best answer: The best way to hedge between completion percentage and depth of target is average net yards per pass attempt, and when you look at ANY/A, the picture becomes clear: Bridgewater in 2020 was at 6.37, Lock at 5.31. You’d like to see this team’s wealth of pass-catching options have a better facilitator, but absent that, go with who gets more when he’s out there, and that (somehow) is Bridgewater.
42. Is Javonte Williams already a sure fantasy starter?
Melvin Gordon is still around in Denver … for now at least. Would you believe he only has one 1,000-yard season in six years in the NFL? The first move new GM George Paton made this offseason was signing Mike Boone in free agency, and then the team spent the third pick of the second round of this year’s draft on Javonte Williams out of North Carolina.
Best answer: If Gordon is jettisoned one way or another (there have been cut rumors, and people instantly connected the Rams dots when Cam Akers went down), Williams would be an easy RB2. But if Gordon stays … well, Williams might not be a fantasy star right away, but it stands to reason he’d be in line for the bigger share of the workload on the soon side, and as our own Matt Jones noted in his Multiverse piece on the Broncos, even that could be enough to make him a borderline starter.
43. Are we all in on the Courtland Sutton comeback?
We make jokes about Allen Robinson’s QB career, but Courtland Sutton turns 26 in October and the best quarterback he’s ever had, college or pro, is probably Case Keenum. Despite that, he put up 704 yards as a rookie in 2018 and then erupted for 1,112 yards with Lock and Joe Flacco in 2019. So his torn ACL after all of 31 snaps in 2020 was a big letdown.
Best answer: Sutton isn’t even opening camp on the PUP list, which is a great sign. Right now, by ADP and the FTN Fantasy rankings, Sutton is going around 30th, with Jerry Jeudy a bit behind, in the late 30s (K.J. Hamler and Tim Patrick are much further back; both would be very interesting if Sutton or Jeudy goes down). For all of Jeudy’s appeal entering the league, Sutton is the one who has shown more; if the health reports stay positive, he should be going earlier and Jeudy a bit later.
Kansas City Chiefs
In addition to being the only team on a five-year streak of division titles, the Chiefs winning 12 games last year while the Patriots won only 7 vaulted them to the top spot in five-year win totals, at 58 — the only team with double-digit wins each season. You don’t need me to tell you, but this team can do some stuff.
44. Do we trust this all-new offensive line?
This series is about fantasy, and so most of the questions focus on the fantasy names. But by far the biggest change for the Chiefs this offseason is the line — the team saw Patrick Mahomes playing dodge-Buc in the Super Bowl and realized change was necessary. Only 44.7% of the team’s O-line snaps from 2020 are still on the roster, and most (possibly all) of those will be out of the starting lineup.
Best answer: If Orlando Brown, Joe Thuney, Austin Blythe, Kyle Long, Mike Remmers, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif and Creed Humphrey had been a team’s line in 2020 and were still together for 2021, that’d be a top-five line. The obvious worry is that these guys weren’t together in 2020 and are suddenly figuring everything out together. But given the elite coaching staff and elite quarterback they’re working with, I’m not worried. This is a good line, potentially an elite one.
45. Can Clyde Edwards-Helaire realize the ceiling everyone thought he had last year?
When Clyde Edwards-Helaire landed in Kansas City in the draft, he shot up fantasy draft boards. When Damien Williams opted out, he vaulted even a little further. When the dust settled, he was going as high as fourth or fifth overall. No one is ever going to say 1,100 scrimmage yards and a PPR RB22 finish was a bad year, but considering that lofty draft status, it’s safe to say CEH came in under expectation.
Best answer: Here’s the part where I say that I was somewhat the last holdout on the CEH train before the draft, and only landing with Andy Reid got me interested. That said, the situation is the same, and it’s still fantastic … and the aforementioned line makes it even better. Edwards-Helaire is being drafted 16th among running backs. That’s clearly too low. Our rankers have him 13th. That also might be too low. This is a borderline RB1 at worst.
46. Which non-Tyreek Hill receiver do we want?
The funny thing about this era of Chiefs football is that you expect an offense as powerful as this one to have a wealth of fantasy contributors. Instead, the Chiefs have been Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, a running back, and that’s about it — the top PPR season outside of that group since Mahomes became the starter belongs to … Harrison Butker. After Butker, it’s Sammy Watkins’ 138.5 points in 2019 in 14 games, not even 10 PPR points per game.
Best answer: Watkins is in Baltimore now, and the team didn’t bring in much of anyone. That means any secondary receiver will come from holdovers Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle. The fantasy community at large has decided to take Hardman, drafting him in the 50s at the position. That’s not lofty, but it is ahead of guys like Marvin Jones, Henry Ruggs and Rashod Bateman. This is the same Hardman who has played 32 games, topped 4 receptions once and topped 100 yards zero times. No, there’s no non-Hill Chiefs WR you want.
Las Vegas Raiders
There was a world where the Raiders would be entering training camp looking at the elite Chiefs, fast-rising Chargers and a newly Aaron Rodgers-ed Broncos team. That would have been a difficult world for Vegas. It now looks like the third part of that list isn’t happening, but the Chiefs are Chargers are still formidable, so Vegas has its work cut out.
47. Darren Waller: Tier 2 tight end by himself, Tier 2 tight end ahead of George Kittle, or Tier 2 tight end behind George Kittle?
Travis Kelce is a tier unto himself at the tight end position, finishing as the top PPR scorer by more than 30 points each of the last two years. And after the top guys, the Kyle Pitts/T.J. Hockenson/Mark Andrews group lies in wait. But there are two guys in the middle there — Waller and Kittle, the No. 2 finishers the last two years — that need to be sorted out.
Best answer: Kittle is the better tight end as a football player, because of the way he excels as a blocker. But that also hurts him in fantasy, as does being in a run-happy 49ers offense. Still, that was true in 2019 as well, and Kittle only set the then-record for TE receiving yards. These two are essentially equal in ADP, and essentially equal in rankings, and … listen, if you want a top-tier TE and Kelce’s gone, feel free to close your eyes and pick. You’ll be fine. It’s a close race.
48. How will the Josh Jacobs/Kenyan Drake tandem sort out?
Josh Jacobs has been around for two years and finished as the RB21 (in 13 games) and RB8 (in 15). So naturally the Raiders signed a big-name No. 2 back for two years and $11 million. Why not, right?
Best answer: First off: I care way less about what Kenyan Drake might mean for Josh Jacobs than what a revamped, and clearly much worse, line means for the both of them. Our Brett Whitefield ranked this as the No. 26 offensive line, and it’s hard to argue. Take that situation and add in the jumble of two decent backs, and their current ADPs (Jacobs RB20, Drake RB39) both feel like ceiling picks. Fade.
49. Henry Ruggs? Bryan Edwards? John Brown? Hunter Renfrow?
The 2021 Saints are going to put to the test the aphorism that “If you have two quarterbacks, you don’t have any.” Well, the Raiders are trying for the corollary “If you have a thousand wide receivers, you don’t have any.” In addition to the aforementioned four, the team signed Willie Snead and retained guys like Zay Jones and Marcell Ateman.
Best answer: The Raiders have no receivers currently being drafted in the top 50, but Henry Ruggs, John Brown and Bryan Edwards all go before 100. And unlike some other teams in this series where there are a bunch of decent guys and we just aren’t sure which one (or ones) will pop, Waller is actually the top receiver here, meaning you are free to take a super-late chance on a Ruggs or Brown if you are feeling chancy, but no, you can fade these fine.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have for a generation of football been the team that analysts and so-called experts have planted their flag on, only for them to also for a generation of football been the team to fall on its face in increasingly creative and comical ways. So hopes are high for the Chargers in 2021. But Charlie Brown always hopes he’ll kick the football, too.
50. Is Austin Ekeler a Tier 1 running back?
From a metric standpoint, Austin Ekeler was a good player essentially as soon as he entered the league in 2017. But from fantasy, he didn’t become a star until 2019. Over the last two years, he’s averaging 18.2 PPR points per game, sixth among all running backs with multiple games played (a caveat I have to put in because Antonio Williams scored 21.3 points in one game played last year). Does that mean he’s a guaranteed top-six draft pick?
Best answer: People continue to refuse to fully trust Ekeler. By ADP, he’s outside the run of running backs that come before the first receiver. And that’s really where the cutoff should be. If you want to debate Ekeler vs. Jonathan Taylor, Ekeler vs. Nick Chubb, be my guest. It’s all splitting hairs. But from a strategic standpoint, unless you’re going full zero-RB, Ekeler should be off the board before you move to another position. That’s his tier, and it’s the top.
51. Is Mike Williams worth relying on?
Mike Williams missed most of his rookie year. He’s played three years since — light yardage, big touchdown totals in 2018; big yardage, bad touchdown totals in 2019; middle-of-the-road in both in 2020. Seriously:
- 2018: 664 yards, 10 touchdowns, PPR WR32
- 2019: 1,001 yards, 2 touchdowns, WR41
- 2020: 756 yards, 5 touchdowns, WR48
If you can find a trend there, congratulations, John Nash.
Best answer: The first thing to do here is check Jeff Ratcliffe’s fantasy projections, where you see that Williams is projected for a line of 52-820-6.3 on 92 targets. The receptions and targets would be career highs, and the yardage and touchdowns would both be an improvement on last year. And with another year under Justin Herbert’s belt and Hunter Henry now gone, that checks out. Maybe Williams isn’t a fantasy star, but he’s definitely worth a flex/bench draft pick with an eye on a potential breakout.
52. Does Jared Cook have anything left for us to care about?
This time three years ago, Jared Cook was a veteran retread. He was 31, had been with four teams, only topped 700 yards once, had never topped 5 touchdowns, had never finished better than TE12 in fantasy. Now, he’s on his sixth team, has 22 touchdowns in three years (second at the position) and has two top-seven fantasy finishes.
Best answer: Not many teams have utilized tight ends more than the Chargers in recent generations, between Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry. That said, Cook has been increasingly banged up in recent years, he’s 34 now, and he’s at best the No. 4 target in this offense, behind Keenan Allen, Ekeler and Williams. Every single fantasy manager will consider Cook as a bye-week/injury fill-in at some point this season. But he won’t be drafted and probably shouldn’t be.
