Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
(Knowing the right question to ask is as important as knowing the answer. In 100 Questions, FTN’s Daniel Kelley identifies the key fantasy football questions to ask heading into the 2021 NFL season. Today: The NFC East.)
Under the NFL’s current alignment, there have been 36 instances of a division collectively finishing under .500 and having no team top 10 wins. The 35 prior to 2020 had a combined .427 winning percentage, roughly 6.8 wins per team. The year after, that winning percentage climbed to .474 (7.6 wins per team), and 19 of 35 divisions (54.3%) had at least one team win more than 10 games.
The point is, even if the NFC East hadn’t taken great strides this offseason, the division would likely improve in 2021. But also, there’s a chance every team here is better than it was last year.
Dallas Cowboys
Through five weeks last year, the Cowboys were scoring 32.6 points per game. Of course, they were allowing 36.0 and were 2-3, so things weren’t great. And also-of-course, Dak Prescott got hurt in that fifth game and was lost for the year. And Dallas fell apart.
53. What tier is Ezekiel Elliott in at running back?
Ezekiel Elliott is entering his sixth year. He’s been a top-12 PPR back every year of his career (even his suspension-limited 2017), but by any measure, 2020 was his worst season. He ran for only 979 yards, scored only 6 touchdowns, averaged only 4.0 yards per carry. He lost his quarterback, had a beaten-up line, and saw his backup (Tony Pollard) outshine him in many advanced metrics. So how do we approach 2021?
Best answer: Due largely to injury, Dallas put a bottom-tier line out there last year to accompany its bottom-tier quarterback situation. Prescott’s return will buoy that part of things, and while the line isn’t back to its 2016-era strength, health from the veterans and the Ty Nsekhe signing should bump it back — our Brett Whitefield ranks Dallas’ offensive line 15th. Current ADP has Elliott near the back of the top-drafted backs (eighth overall), but our FTN Fantasy rankings have him fourth overall — that big a gap at the tip-top is significant, and it shows that nabbing Zeke could be a savvy move.
54. So are we banking on Dak Prescott being what he was at the start of last season?
You know the numbers by now, but it’s worth reiterating: In five games last year, Prescott threw for more yards than Nick Foles (9 games), Tua Tagovailoa (10) or Alex Smith (8). He threw for as many touchdowns (9) as Sam Darnold, more than Cam Newton. He was the No. 1 quarterback in fantasy points per game, barely a point and a half behind Tagovailoa in raw total. It was only five games, but oh what a five games it was.
Best answer: Well, no. Even with Dallas having a top-three group of pass-catchers, even with the offensive line back to strength, even with all the health reports about Prescott’s recovery looking positive, even with still one of the league’s worst defenses, Prescott’s pace last year would have had him demolishing the all-time QB fantasy record over 16 games (let alone a 17th in 2021). So no, we can’t bet on that. But all those “even with”s do make him a prime QB. You can draft him fifth at the position. Our rankers have him fourth. I might even go to third, and I would strongly consider second. He’s still a stud.
55. We know the receivers and the running backs, but what’s the value at tight end?
Blake Jarwin was supposed to be the sleeper TE on the Cowboys last year, only to tear his ACL in Week 1. He’s back in practice, but in his absence, Dalton Schultz soaked up the work, finishing No. 9 in targets among tight ends en route to a TE11 season, including five top-10 weeks.
Best answer: Our Eliot Crist has been all over Schultz, naming him one of his favorite last-round picks in best ball. Tyler Loechner pointed out how adept Schultz was at breaking tackles. And Derek Brown named Jarwin a bust candidate. So that might be enough of an answer. But really, the answer is that Schultz earned the right to see more work even with Jarwin back, and considering Jarwin costs a tiny bit in drafts while Schultz is free, just go for the free guy and hope for the best.
New York Giants
The Giants started 0-5. They eventually climbed to 5-7 and raised playoff hopes. Which of course meant they lost their next three, ultimately finished 6-10, and were Nate Sudfeld-ed right out of the saddest division title ever. Oh, and:
56. Where should you draft Saquon Barkley?
If we knew Saquon Barkley were 100% healthy heading into the season, he’d likely be fighting Dalvin Cook for the No. 2 spot in ADP. Barkley’s “down” 2019 still included 1,441 scrimmage yards and 8 touchdowns, and his 2018 ceiling featured more than 2,000 yards and 15 scores. Instead, he’s going fifth, the same as where our FTN Fantasy rankings have him.
Best answer: You could easily argue Barkley has a slightly higher ceiling than the guys going around him — Elliott, Jonathan Taylor, etc.. And that’s fairly irrelevant. Because the ceiling isn’t much higher, the floor — given recent not-entirely-optimistic reports, including the possibility he misses Week 1 — is much lower. And game theory says that, while you should take risks late in drafts, you need safe production up high. I couldn’t take Barkley over any of the six backs going around him, and then I’d struggle with him vs. guys like Austin Ekeler or the receivers.
57. What level of fantasy option is Kenny Golladay now that he’s in New York?
After a breakout in his 2018 second season in Detroit, Kenny Golladay went off the board 20th among wide receivers, per Fantasy Football Calculator. After an elite 2019 (1,190 yards, 11 touchdowns, PPR WR9), he climbed all the way to seventh last year … and all but cratered, with only 20 receptions and 338 yards after injuries limited him to five games. Now he’s the alpha with the Giants.
Best answer: Jeff Ratcliffe’s fantasy projections have Golladay going for 973 yards and 6.6 touchdowns on 65 receptions. That would be just over 200 PPR points, which would have been WR25 last year. Current by ADP, he’s … WR24. Currently by our rankings, he’s … WR25. So there’s some agreement here. I think that level — definite starter in three-WR leagues, flex otherwise, decent upside — is fair. But considering a fairly crowded depth chart around him and a dodgy QB throwing him the ball, Golladay is very unlikely to ever again have the ceiling he had that one year in Detroit. High floor, low ceiling.
58. Can Evan Engram be an upper-tier tight end again?
Evan Engram has the top rookie fantasy season for a tight end this century, putting up 173.6 PPR points in 2017 (TE5). Since then, he’s never equaled any of his numbers. He had 64 receptions on 115 targets for 722 yards and 6 touchdowns that rookie year, all career highs.
Best answer: Engram’s second-best year by every measure except touchdowns was last year, when even a moderate scoring rate (he only scored once on 109 targets) would have left him as a TE1, albeit a back-end one. The flip side is that his offense added Golladay and Kadarius Toney as receivers and signed an end-zone TE threat in Kyle Rudolph. The situation that would have to happen for Engram to be a top-six tight end is a tough one to divine. But he’s currently ranked as TE17, and the path to him being a back-end TE1/front-end TE2 is an easier one. He might go undrafted, but he’s an interesting flier.
Philadelphia Eagles
It’s tempting to say the Eagles have been in a free fall since their Super Bowl, but it’s not really accurate. The team won a playoff game the next year, won the division the year after that. They went 9-7 and 9-7 in the two years after the title. It’s really just last year — when everything fell apart to the tune of a 4-11-1 record and the departure of their head coach and QB — that the “free fall” really happened.
59. What if you draft Jalen Hurts as your only QB?
Jalen Hurts had his first start in Week 14. Over the next three weeks, he had 847 passing yards and 5 TDs on 62-of-113 passing, adding 238 yards and a touchdown on the ground. He was fantasy’s QB3 in those weeks (top-13 all three weeks, including QB1 in Week 15). And now Carson Wentz is gone.
Best answer: An anecdote: In 2011, I won my home league, and for half of the season the only quarterback I rostered was one Mr. Tim Tebow. Tebow’s arm was … well, Tebow’s arm, but he ran for 660 yards and 6 touchdowns in 14 games, and it was enough. Hurts isn’t quite the runner Tebow was, but he’s close, and he’s a much better passer. That all means that, while you might not always want to watch the games Hurts quarterbacks, you should be able to ride him in fantasy and soak up that Konami Code production — it’s not like he’ll get benched for Joe Flacco or Nick Mullens?
60. What is Dallas Goedert’s ceiling?
For all the hype surrounding Dallas Goedert in his career, he’s maxed out at 607 yards and 5 touchdowns. His fantasy finishes have featured two years as TE20 (2018, 2020) and one as TE10 (2019). But Zach Ertz will either be gone in 2021, or he’ll take a definite back seat. Is that enough?
Best answer: To rehash a topic: At tight end, Tier 1 is Travis Kelce, Darren Waller and George Kittle; Tier 2 is Kyle Pitts, T.J. Hockenson and Mark Andrews; Tier 3 is everyone else. The only real debate I can see about those anywhere is whether Goedert, the top guy in “everyone else,” should actually be at the back of Tier 2. And the answer is … probably not, but of all the guys outside the top six, Goedert’s ceiling is the highest. If you take him, there’s big-time potential.
61. What is DeVonta Smith’s ceiling as a rookie?
DeVonta Smith had a ridiculous 2020, going for 1,856 yards and 32 touchdowns on 117 receptions, putting up a 12-215-3 line on Ohio State in the title game in essentially half a game, and winning the Heisman. Those numbers should portend a huge NFL future, except for the first numbers you see on his bio — 6-foot-0, 174 pounds. If Smith were more conventionally sized, he’d have been the first receiver drafted. But he’s not.
Best answer: I’m not saying “what our smart people bet on” is an unimpeachable metric. But all three of our Eliot Crist, Jeff Ratcliffe and Matthew Freedman touted Smith’s yardage over as a favorite prop for the year, and that should say something. He’s the clear No. 1 receiver in this offense, and getting that in the mid-30s at receiver is a potential blessing. I’d take him a round or so higher than he’s going.
Washington Football Team
Washington went 8-7-1, 7-9 and 7-9 in 2016-2018, all at least equal to their 2020 record, and finished third in the NFC East all three times. So while there will surely be a “2020 NFC East champions” banner flying, no one should go around pretending that was anything like a traditional first-place year … and Washington didn’t, fortifying the roster all around this offseason.
62. Is Ryan Fitzpatrick actually a fantasy factor?
Ryan Fitzpatrick was a seventh-round pick in the 2005 draft, 250th overall. He passed Steve DeBerg last year for most passing yards all time by a player drafted 200th or later. And yet he’s only finished as a top-20 fantasy QB four times, never in the top 10. Of course, he’s never had the situation he has in Washington before, either.
Best answer: Fitz is going off the board 26th, and our rankers have him 23rd. So the consensus is that no, he’s not a fantasy factor. And that seems … wrong. No, he’s not a top-10 QB, and yes, he’ll have the occasional implosion. But he’s also pass for nearly 4,000 yards (230.9 yards per game since 2015 works out to 3,925.3) and he’ll offer you a couple hundred yards on the ground. His backups are Taylor Heinicke, Kyle Allen and Steven Montez (aka, Fitz won’t be benched). In best ball, where you can fade his blow-ups, Fitz is a huge value, but even in regular fantasy, I’m happy to pounce late.
63. Can Antonio Gibson break into the top tier at RB?
Famously, Antonio Gibson entered the NFL last year with all of 33 college carries under his belt, a wide receiver at Memphis. So it was reasonable to expect he might be the backfield receiving option. Instead, Gibson had 170 carries (missing two games) and actually ceded receiving work to RB target league leader J.D. McKissic. And it worked, as Gibson was the RB10 in fantasy PPG through 12 weeks, before his injury.
Best answer: No offense to the man, but if the only thing standing in your way is J.D. McKissic, then you don’t have much standing in your way. Washington has the No. 9 line, per Brett Whitefield’s offensive line rankings, a top-tier defense that should keep them in good gamescripts, and a running back in Gibson who has a versatile skill set. You can get him 13th in ADP right now. Our rankers have him 10th. I might bump him up even a spot or two from there.
64. Is Logan Thomas a TE1?
This is a WR question disguised as a TE one. Because Logan Thomas finished third in TE targets a year ago, with 110, since the Washington pass-catching unit was basically “Terry McLaurin, McKissic, and, uh, well, see…” He turned those 110 targets into only 670 yards and a TE7 fantasy finish, because he finished 17th among 26 qualified tight ends in PPR points per target. Thomas entered the NFL as a quarterback, so even that production is impressive, but it’s worth wondering if he can do it again.
Best answer: Washington bulked up its receiving corps this offseason, signing Curtis Samuel and Adam Humphries and drafting Dyami Brown. So while Thomas is still the clear TE1 here, his path to 110 targets again — or even close to that — is a tough one. Our fantasy football projections have him at 89 targets, and given the other pass-catchers and the likely-to-be-good gamescripts, even that seems like a long shot. I’m fading Thomas hard this year, investing much more in Gibson and McLaurin and the other receivers.
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