100 Questions: Fantasy Football 2024 (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

As we head toward the start of the 2024 NFL and fantasy football season, FTN Fantasy editor-in-chief Daniel Kelley is asking (and attempting to answer) the 100 most pressing questions in fantasy football. This is 100 Questions. Today: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Winning a division title is a successful season. Winning it three years in a row might not signify a dynasty, per se, but it sure is a mark of a team doing some very nice work.

Or at least it should be.

Since the merger, there have been 83 examples of a team winning the division title three years in a row (with overlaps, so, for example, the Seahawks are on the list for 2004-2006 and 2005-2007). Those teams have put up a combined 2,859-956-18 record, for a .748 winning percentage. The 1974-1976 Raiders (36-6) are the best of the bunch, at .857. Of the 83 teams in the sample, 82 have a winning percentage of at least .638, 78 of at least .700.

And then there are the Buccaneers of the last three years.

Tampa Bay has won three straight NFC South titles. That’s good! They were 13-4 in their 2021 Super Bowl-defense season. Also very good! In 2022, though, they won the division at 8-9, and while they were better in 2023, it was just barely, sneaking out a division title at 9-8. Collectively, the Buccaneers have gone 30-21 in their three division-winning seasons, a .588 winning percentage that is not only the worst among teams with three straight division titles, it’s the worst by a whole bunch.

Worst Winning Percentage for Team with 3 Straight Division Titles, Since Merger
Team	Years	Record	W%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2021-2023	30-21	.588
Cleveland Browns	1985-1987	30-17	.638
Seattle Seahawks	2004-2006	31-17	.646
Green Bay Packers	2012-2014	31-16-1	.656
Minnesota Vikings	1976-1978	28-14-2	.659
Green Bay Packers	2002-2004	32-16	.667
San Diego Chargers	2007-2009	32-16	.667
Pittsburgh Steelers	1995-1997	32-16	.667
Seattle Seahawks	2005-2007	32-16	.667
San Francisco 49ers	1970-1972	27-13-2	.667

Flags fly forever, so good on them for doing what they had to do to get a home playoff game, but “three straight division titles” paints a very different picture than “13-4, then 8-9, then 9-8,” and anyone who thinks the Buccaneers are verging on a dynasty would do well to focus on the latter more than the former.

The Questions

92. Can Baker Repeat Without Dave Canales?
93. Is Bucky Irving the Vulture We Feared?
94. Do We Like Jalen McMillan?

100 Questions for 2024: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Can Baker Repeat Without Dave Canales?

TAMPA, FL - SEPTEMBER 17: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) throws a pass during the regular season game between the Chicago Bears and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on September 17, 2023 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire) — TAMPA, FL – SEPTEMBER 17: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) throws a pass during the regular season game between the Chicago Bears and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on September 17, 2023 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

Baker Mayfield was on what was almost certainly his last chance as a starter last year after washing out of Cleveland and Carolina and only being so-so in five games with the Rams. If he had crashed and burned in Tampa, he’d be a backup now. Instead, he had his best season by passer rating and PFF passing grade since 2020 and his best by yards, touchdowns and fantasy finish ever. A lot of that success is credited to Dave Canales, who was the Bucs’ offensive coordinator in 2023. But now, Canales is gone, heading to Carolina to take over as head coach, and we have to wonder how Baker will fare in his absence. Was Canales the magic sauce, or did he merely impart the knowledge Baker would need going forward?

Luckily, we have a data point to draw from. Unluckily, it isn’t that conclusive.

Before his one year as Tampa Bay offensive coordinator, Canales had one year as the offensive coordinator in Seattle, where he did basically the same thing. Geno Smith was on his fourth team after having been a starter early in his career. If it hadn’t worked out in Seattle, he wasn’t going to get another go at it. Instead, had comfortably the best season of his career in 2022. Good news!

The issue is, in 2023, he was better by PFF passing grade (76.1 to 82.1) and essentially equal in adjusted completion percentage (77.8% to 77.4%), but he fell from 18.5 fantasy points per game to 15.7, owing to problems along the offensive line and a 211-yards drop in rushing.

We aren’t really concerned with Mayfield on the ground. He’s maxed out at 165 yards in a season and hasn’t scored more than a single rushing touchdown since 2019. But assuming the Bucs’ offensive line stays healthy, it should be an average-to-better unit, anchored by Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke at the tackle positions and 2024 first-rounder Graham Barton at center. It’s not elite, but it shouldn’t be the reason Baker might struggle in 2024. There’s a definite ceiling on Mayfield’s production, which is why he’s QB21 in drafts, but the quarterbacks just after him in ADP are Deshaun Watson, Will Levis and Bo Nix, and we can quibble on ceilings, but Mayfield clearly has a higher floor, and at that level, that’s valuable.

Is Bucky Irving the Vulture We Feared?

In the last decade, 66 running backs have put up at least 250 PPR points. Sort them by yards per attempt, and Alvin Kamara in 2017 is the best, at 6.1. The worst? Rachaad White last year, at 3.6.

Worst Yards Per Attempt, 250+ PPR Points, 2014-2023
Player	Team	YPA
Rachaad White	TB	3.64
James Conner	ARI	3.72
Travis Etienne	JAC	3.78
Melvin Gordon	LAC	3.89
Matt Forte	CHI	3.90
Najee Harris	PIT	3.91
Melvin Gordon	SD	3.93
LeSean McCoy	BUF	3.97
Devonta Freeman	ATL	3.98

Obviously, White still has plenty of fantasy virtue, owing to his workload (272 carries) and receiving work (64 carries on 70 targets for 549 yards) — only Christian McCaffrey (165.4) and Breece Hall (159.1) scored more PPR points as a receiver than White’s 136.9.

There’s nothing wrong with that. Austin Ekeler was the overall RB1 across 2021 and 2022, more than 160 points ahead of anyone else, despite maxing out at 915 rushing yards. The job is the job. The problem is if the team realizes how woefully inefficient it is on the ground and gets a better ground option … like the Buccaneers tried to do this offseason. Tampa drafted Oregon’s Bucky Irving in the fourth round, and he might not be an elite receiver, but he should be a very competent rusher — in this year’s draft class, only Audric Estimé, Kimani Vidal and Jonathon Brooks put up a higher PFF rushing grade in college last year than Irving, and he’s already drawn praise in camp.

With a shallow depth chart behind White, Irving should already be fairly locked in as the team’s RB2, but as I said in our Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions on the Buccaneers, I think even that undersells him. White likely opens as the bell cow or close, owing to Irving being a fourth-round rookie, but whenever he’s up to speed (and it could be Week 1!), Irving should outrush White the rest of the way. White’s receiving value won’t disappear, so he’s still the Tampa back to target in fantasy drafts, but at current cost (White is RB14 by ADP, Irving RB57), Irving is the better value by about 100 miles.

Do We Like Jalen McMillan?

“What if we made the whole roster out of slot receivers?”

TAMPA, FL - DEC 08: Chris Godwin (12) of the Bucs gets some additional yardage after the catch during the regular season game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 08, 2019 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire) — TAMPA, FL – DEC 08: Chris Godwin (12) of the Bucs gets some additional yardage after the catch during the regular season game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 08, 2019 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

Yes, Mike Evans is who he is. But behind him, the Bucs have Chris Godwin, who was gradually moving toward being a full-time slot guy before having to kick outside last year; Jalen McMillan, who ran 91.4% of his routes out of the slot at Washington the last two years; and Sterling Shepard, who was almost exclusively a slot guy early in his career before the Giants ran out of receivers.

When the Bucs drafted McMillan in the third round, I will admit, I thought that meant Godwin would stay outside, and I thought McMillan would be a sleeper. I even wrote as much! But as the offseason has gone on, the team has spoken more and more of Godwin moving back to the slot. And while that’s probably for the best for the veteran, it means McMillan is moving out of position and will battle the likes of Trey Palmer for time. Our FTN Fantasy projections reflect that, with Evans and Godwin both slated for over 100 targets and McMillan and Palmer both in the 50 range. So from a strategy perspective, despite him having third-round value, we’re not doing anything with McMillan in fantasy beyond watching. He’s not a draft target.