Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the NBA Playoffs…almost!
In July 2022, the NBA Board of Governors approved the adoption of the NBA Play-In Tournament featuring the teams ranked 7-10 in each conference. Now in its second season, the AT&T Play-In Tournament provides an additional week of drama for NBA fans.
Starting on Tuesday, there will be a total of six contests across the two conferences. The No. 7 seed will host the No. 8 seed in the same conference. The winning team automatically becomes the seventh seed in the NBA Playoffs for its conference, while the losing team will still have a chance to earn the eighth seed in the NBA Playoffs in a subsequent game.
Our first two matchups feature the No. 7 seed Miami Heat hosting the No. 8 seed Atlanta Hawks in the East, and the No. 7 seed Los Angeles Lakers hosting the No. 8 seed Minnesota Timberwolves in the West. Let’s take a look at each matchup and our favorite bets.
Eastern Conference
Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat
Line: Miami -5
Total: 226.5
Offense meets defense when the Hawks travel to the Kaseya Center to battle the Heat. Atlanta boasts the seventh-best offensive rating in the league, while the Heat counter as the ninth-best defensive team. Neither team was particularly impressive against the spread, especially a Miami team that tied for the worst ATS record at 30-49-3 (38%). The Hawks weren’t much better, sitting as the sixth-worst team at 36-45-1 (44.4%).
Miami also struggled ATS at home, covering just 35.9% (14-25-2) of their games, including just 32.4% (11-23-2) as a home favorite. The Hawks covered 45% (18-22-1) of their games on the road and were an impressive 14-12-1 (54%) ATS as a road underdog. While the Heat went 3-1 straight up against Miami, they split 2-2 ATS in those matchups.
This line is based too much on reputation, as I give the Hawks a strong chance to win this game outright. Atlanta guard Trae Young has struggled from 3P range this season, shooting just 33.5%, his lowest percentage since his rookie season. However, he now has a significant upgrade in a running mate with Dejounte Murray. In his first season with the Hawks, Murray has posted 20.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG and 6.1 APG while shooting a very respectable 46.4% from the field. In the last game at Miami, Murray and Young combined for 48 points and 15 assists in a 130-128 loss.
The Heat have not played consistent basketball all season, finishing nine games worse than their 53-29 record from one year ago. While head coach Erik Spoelstra is respected as one of the NBA’s best coaches, I question just how far Miami’s fourth-oldest roster can go in a super-competitive Eastern Conference. Center Bam Adebayo had been dealing with a lingering hip injury throughout the past two weeks, and 37-year-old Kyle Lowry played just 55 games this season. Their age has shown on the boards, where Miami ranks as the league’s worst rebounding team. Atlanta’s third-best contested rebounding percentage should keep them close in this matchup.
The Heat need to continue their superb offensive prowess to cover this line, but Atlanta’s backcourt has enough scoring to stay competitive, especially with a fully healthy Bogdon Bogdanovic (11-of-24 3P in the last three games). If the Hawks can keep Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro from having massive scoring games, Atlanta can steal this play-in game win and earn that No. 7 overall seed. I’m taking the Hawks +5 as a live underdog against a Miami team that is on the downside of a lengthy Eastern Conference run of postseason success.
The Pick: Atlanta +5
Western Conference
Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers
Line: Los Angeles Lakers -7.5
Total: 231.5
The Timberwolves finished the season at a disappointing 42-40, after a 49.5 preseason over/under win total. However, Minnesota played 53 games without star forward Karl-Anthony Towns after a calf strain sidelined him for four months.
The Timberwolves had played eight games since Towns’ return, posting a 5-3 record. Minnesota enters the playoffs with three straight wins, including a hard-fought 113-108 win over New Orleans on Sunday. The Timberwolves played all their starters in that matchup, as they needed a victory to secure a place in this matchup with the Lakers. They rallied from an early 13-point deficit and earned the win despite losing center Rudy Gobert at halftime after the sideline altercation with Kyle Anderson.
Gobert is now suspended for this matchup, but that does not automatically translate into a Minnesota loss. The Timberwolves were 8-4 without Gobert this season, averaging 121.1 PPG. In fact, Minnesota went 4-1 in their last five games without Gobert and Towns.
I expect the public to overreact to the Gobert news, providing value on Minnesota. The Timberwolves held a 2-1 advantage in their three matchups this season, although neither win came with both LeBron James and Anthony Davis on the floor. The Lakers won the last matchup in Minnesota on March 31 by a comfortable 123-111 score.
The Lakers’ success is built on their defense, but the Timberwolves actually rank higher than Los Angeles in NBA defensive rating. However, the loss of Gobert certainly hurts their defensive effectiveness, as will the absence of forward Jaden McDaniels, who broke his hand punching a wall after receiving his second foul on Sunday.
The Lakers are certainly the more cohesive team, but LeBron James (foot) and Dennis Schroder (neck) are both dealing with lingering injuries. The Lakers were just 10-12 ATS as a home favorite, and the return of Towns should keep this game close.
The news of Gobert’s suspension quickly raised this line to 8.5, which the public immediately bet down to 7.5. The total on the game did rise two full points. I’m taking Minnesota +7.5 but also like the Under 231.5 in a pace the Lakers should be able to control.
The Pick: Minnesota +7.5, Under 231.5
