Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
We’re only eight days away from the return of playoff basketball, as there are still a handful of teams with seeding and play-in potential on the line. There are seven games on tap Sunday around the association, with the 12:30 p.m. ET game because the Washington Wizards and Oklahoma City Thunder kicking the day off.
It’s time now for the game-by-game breakdowns for DFS purposes — I will be covering them every Sunday through the end of the NBA playoffs, so make sure to tune in.
Vegas odds via Fanduel Sportsbook.
Washington Wizards vs Oklahoma City Thunder (OKC -9, 224)
Wizards: 29th in defensive efficiency, sixth in pace
Thunder: eighth in defensive efficiency, 25th in pace
Troy Brown Jr. can’t do anything more to warrant a price-bump, but it’s a blessing to take advantage of as a DFS player. Still priced under $6,000, Brown has consistently shown his triple-double potential regardless of matchup. If you want exposure to the Wizards’ side of the early game, Brown is by far and away the best option.
Outside of Brown, the rest of this team is incredibly hard to trust, as Ish Smith and Shabazz Napier have a brutal individual matchup with either Chris Paul or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The only other player worth targeting here is Thomas Bryant, who’s been unleashed since the restart.
Bryant has posted a 21.5% usage rate in the bubble with a 15.5% rebounding rate and has produced 1.33 FPPM. With Steven Adams out, he should have more room to operate in the post, making this an extremely targetable matchup.
Speaking of the absence of Adams, Nerlens Noel should once again see an uptick in opportunity, as he saw 27 minutes last game without Adams. While he disappointed with 19 DKP, the individual matchup against a Wizards team that is bottom-six against all three of his traits per advanced DvP (rim protector, rebounder, bench) makes this a great bounceback spot.
The matchup is just as good for Paul and Gilgeous-Alexander, as the Wizards rank bottom-10 in the NBA against all of their archetypes. Without Dennis Schroder, they should both continue to see incrementally more shot volume, making them safe cash-game plays.
The same can be said for Danilo Gallinari, as the Wizards rank 27th against scorers and 24th against skilled centers. He’s also seen a 28.4% usage rate since the restart with Schroder off of the floor while producing 1.09 FPPM, making him an elite mid-tier target.
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Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors (TOR -7, 222)
Memphis: 14th in defensive efficiency, seventh in pace
Toronto: first in defensive efficiency, 12th in pace
The Grizzlies have been a rather inconsistent team in the bubble, but as it comes down to the wire, they’re one of the teams that absolutely needs to win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Ja Morant has seen a nice uptick in volume in the bubble, recording at least 15 shot attempts in all but one of his five games while also dishing out at least eight assists in each. Unfortunately, Kyle Lowry is no slouch defensively and the Raptors are a nightmare matchup for him, per our aDvP tool. The same can be said for Dillon Brooks, whose shot volume has been through the roof, but with Toronto ranking third in the NBA against scorers, it’s hard to trust him in anything more than large field tournaments.
The matchup for the Grizzlies doesn’t get any easier in the paint, as the Raptors rank top-five against scorers, rim protectors, skilled centers and rebounders, all four of Jonas Valanciunas’ archetypes. With Jaren Jackson Jr. out, however, we should still see a lot of Valanciunas involvement, making him a fine tournament play at a reasonable cost.
Both Brandon Clarke and Grayson Allen remain cheap, with the later running hotter from a fantasy perspective. Having seen 24-plus minutes in four consecutive games and only hitting below 20 fantasy points once, Allen is a great point-per-dollar option, especially on DraftKings. As for Clarke, his role has stayed relatively the same even without Jackson, making him too hard to trust in a difficult matchup. Kyle Anderson has also been playing 25-plus minutes on a regular basis and given his slight uptick in involvement lately, his $4,500 price tag on DraftKings makes him a usable value play.
On the other side of this game, the Raptors find themselves in a nice pace-up matchup. This should benefit the three-headed monster of Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam.
Lowry has been great across the board in the bubble, but given the price discrepancy, VanVleet comes off as a better point-per-dollar option with a 36.3% assist rate and 1.13 FPPM rate. Siakam is also relatively inexpensive considering what we’re used to and given a pace-up matchup, but given his inconsistencies since the restart (shooting under 50% in all but one game), he’s better left for tournaments.
Outside of the Raptors big three, there isn’t a ton of value to hang your hat on with this team, especially considering the value on the rest of the slate given injuries.
San Antonio Spurs vs New Orleans Pelicans (NOP -3.0, 240)
San Antonio: 26th in defensive efficiency, 15th in pace
New Orleans: 19th in defensive efficiency, second in pace
One area where we’ve seen players thrive in the pace-up matchup against the Pelicans is at the point guard position, making this a smash spot for Dejounte Murray, as the Pelicans’ defense ranks 27th against dimers and 29th against primary ball handlers. His $6,000 price tag mitigates some of the concern with inconsistency and given the fact that he saw 34 minutes in their last massive pace-up game against the Grizzlies, we may see a similar allotment today.
Derrick White finds himself in a similar spot for $100 more on DraftKings and has posted a 24.6% usage rate since the restart while averaging 1.25 FPPM, making him a phenomenal pivot.
This also sets up incredibly well for DeMar DeRozan, who should likely see Jrue Holiday’s defense on the perimeter, but that doesn’t deter from how great the overall matchup is, shown below via aDvP.
Rudy Gay is another Spurs piece to focus on, as he’s topped 33 DraftKings points in back-to-back outings and has, surprisingly, recorded the highest usage rate on the team since the restart at 27.3%. Given the matchup, you can confidently target Lonnie Walker and Keldon Johnson as salary savers, as the pace-up spot and poor defensive environment should leave a ton of production to go around. The one Spur that I don’t have an interest in on this slate is Jakob Poeltl, as this has the making of a game where he only sees 20-23 minutes with little involvement, given the pace.
With Zion Williamson expected back from his one-game absence for rest Friday, we can expect a rather normal rotation out of New Orleans. While his minutes may gradually be increased, until we hear any finite coach speak about it, I have a hard time trusting him at $7,800. He could very-well explode in 20-25 minutes like he did against Memphis (38.25 DK points), but with players like Jayson Tatum and CJ McCollum around the same price, he’s a pass.
The rest of the Pelicans are priced as if Zion is still out. With Jrue Holiday at $9,100 and Brandon Ingram at $8,500, it’s hard to justify spending on them in a healthy rotation over other pieces on the slate. If choosing in a vacuum, however, Holiday would be the preferred option, as the Spurs rank in the bottom half of the league against all four of his archetypes (dimer, primary ball handler, scorer, crafty finisher). Speaking on Ingram, they also rank 25th in the league against point forwards, making him a strong tournament option, but someone I would avoid in cash games given his price.
With a full rotation, we can safely cross off the rest of the Pelicans’ roster, especially given their inflated prices, and focus on better point-per-dollar plays on the slate.
Orlando Magic vs Boston Celtics (BOS -6.5, no total posted)
Orlando: 10th in defensive efficiency, 26th in pace
Boston: fourth in defensive efficiency, 16th in pace
The Magic have dropped three straight games in the bubble and while their playoff hopes seem secured, a matchup with the Celtics could very well make it four straight losses. The Celtics are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA with holes to exploit, making this a tough game to roster Magic players.
If there’s one potential hole in the Celtics’ defense, it’s against stretch bigs, where they rank 23rd in aDvP. Nikola Vucevic has been a workhorse all season and has produced 1.34 FPPM in the bubble, making this a spot that he could potentially exploit for $8,200, especially with Evan Fournier out.
With both Fournier and Aaron Gordon out, we could see a massive uptick in shot-volume for Terrence Ross. It’s wildly unlikely that he shoots 0-10 from the field again and with this level of volume, it’s worth going right back to the well.
If Gordon is indeed out again, we can safely fire up James Ennis as a value piece, as he’s posted 20-plus DK points in three consecutive outings, attempting at least 10 field goals in each of those contests with respectable peripheral contribution.
While the Celtics aren’t a great draw for the Magic in terms of matchup, the same can be said about the Magic for the Celtics. Even so, the selling point with the Celtics players is how cheap they are across the board. Jayson Tatum has only seen over 32 minutes twice so far in the bubble, posting over 36 DK points in both outings, but his $7,900 price has somewhat accounted for that. While the Magic are fourth in aDvP against scorers, Tatum could see a boost in matchup if Aaron Gordon were to sit, making him a nice GPP play at his tag.
The player that I have the most interest in on Boston, however, is Jaylen Brown. He’s been the epitome of consistent since the restart, failing to fall below 30 DK points once and shooting above 50% from the field in three of five. He’s been seeing a huge uptick in volume from beyond the arc as well, making at least three of those shots each game, which is another big bonus with DraftKings scoring structure. His 25.6% usage rate since the restart is second only to Tatum, making him a great play at a $1,000 discount off his previously mentioned teammate.
Outside of those two, the rest of the Celtics are hard to trust, as Kemba Walker continues to be eased back into action and if this game gets out of hand, he’s arguably the first player that will rest. Given his price, if we were to get word he should see anywhere north of 28 minutes, however, he’d be hard to pass on at $6,100 on DraftKings. Gordon Hayward has been rather inconsistent in the bubble, failing to produce over a fantasy point per minute (0.96), making him hard to trust with Jaylen Brown only $100 more expensive.
Unless we get word that Kemba Walker is resting (which I do not think he will), Marcus Smart and Brad Wanamaker are simply rotation players that’ll take a back seat offensively. Between the two, I would have more interest in Wanamaker, as he’s been a 1.05 FPPM producer since the restart and comes in dirt cheap.
Philadelphia 76ers vs Portland Trail Blazers (POR -2.5, 229)
Philadelphia: seventh in defensive efficiency, 19th in pace
Portland: 27th in defensive efficiency, 13th in pace
In what could very-well be the best game of the day from a sheer entertainment standpoint, both of these teams are in must-win mode for seeding purposes.
In scenarios with Ben Simmons off of the court since the restart, we see monster numbers from Joel Embiid, posting a 36.7% usage rate, 21.9% rebounding rate and 15.7% assist rate while producing 1.62 FPPM, making him one of, if not the top overall play on the slate against a rather brutal Portland defense.
Tobias Harris is another huge beneficiary, as he sees his usage rate spike to 28.1% while producing 1.17 FPPM. The Blazers rank 29th in the league against both crafty finishers and scorers, making this a smash spot for Harris.
With Simmons out, we can also expect expanded roles for Shake Milton, Al Horford and Josh Richardson. Horford draws arguably the best matchup on the team, as the Blazers have been torched by the power forward position all season and rank in the bottom-half of the league against his archetypes (3-and-D, stretch big, skilled center).
Milton and Richardson should continue to share ball-handling duties, but the production since the restart without Simmons has been questionable, as Richardson has only produced 0.31 FPPM. This can be the result of a dud last time out, but at $4,900, he’s still far too cheap for a player who shouldn’t shoot 2-of-12 from the field in back-to-back games.
On the flip side, the Blazers have everything to lose and against a Sixers team whose defense has been far worse both in the bubble and without Simmons, there could be a ton of fantasy production here.
Damian Lillard is the obvious beneficiary of the Simmons absence and although he’s on the second leg of a back-to-back, Terry Stotts has made a point to play him at or around 40 minutes per game. He’s the top PG-only option on the slate.
His backcourt-mate CJ McCollum, however, draws a much more difficult matchup, as the Sixers rank top-five against all three of his traits (primary ball handler, scorer, crafty finisher). He’s a fine play at $7,800, but I would rather save $200 and default to Fred VanVleet at $7,500.
Jusuf Nurkic has been everywhere since his return, averaging 19.6 points, 11.4 rebounds, 5.2 assists and over 1.5 steals and blocks. He should see a ton of playing time to counter Embiid and while the matchup is no walk in the park, his role is solidified and production should be expected.
Outside of the big three for Portland, there can be some warrant to play Carmelo Anthony and Zach Collins at their DraftKings prices. While the matchup doesn’t look great on paper, the Sixers defense has been in shambles since the restart and both of these players have shown a usable level of consistency since the restart.
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Houston Rockets @ Sacramento Kings (HOU -5.0, no total posted)
Houston: 13th in defensive efficiency, third in pace
Sacramento: 20th in defensive efficiency, 20th in pace
You know the drill: When Russell Westbrook is out, fire up James Harden. That remains true here, and his price tag on both FanDuel and DraftKings still feel too cheap for a player with a 37.4% usage rate and 66.7% assist rate with Westbrook off the floor since the restart while producing 2.12 FPPM. He’s the top overall play on the slate and may come in with the most ownership as well, for good reason.
That should also give Ben McLemore another shot at starting and while his usage rate doesn’t pop off of the page, he saw 30 minutes and 13 field goal attempts in the last game with Westbrook out. Getting that volume at $3,800 is a gift on DraftKings, making him another elite play from the Rockets.
There should also be added opportunities for Danuel House, Austin Rivers and Robert Covington in this one. All three of them saw at least 32 minutes last game without Westbrook and all three are priced fairly in an exploitable matchup.
While just about the entire Rockets side of the ball is viable, the Kings find themselves in a massive pace-up spot, which should cater to the style of play for De’Aaron Fox, as the Rockets rank 24th or worse against three of his four traits (dimer, primary ball handler, scorer). He’s a phenomenal mid-tier piece, especially given his uptick in shot volume since the restart.
With Richaun Holmes ruled out as well, Nemanja Bjelica should see close to 30 minutes, making him an elite value play at under $5,000, as he’s been a 0.96 FPPM producer since the restart sans Holmes. The should also open the door for Harry Giles to get some run, but given Houston’s tendency to run small, I wouldn’t bank on him seeing more than minutes in the low-20s.
The rotating door of Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic continues as the Kings ride the hot-ha d, but more often than not (at least since the restart), that hot hand has been Bogdanovic. Since his 1-of-15 showing against Dallas, he’s shot over 57% from the field in consecutive games (both with at least 19 FGAs) and topped 38 fantasy points in each. At $5,300 in a game where offensive production will be aplenty, he’s an elite value play.
Harrison Barnes is another fine value play, albeit quite boring. His price refuses to move and at $4,700 on DraftKings for a player that’s topped 25 DKP in back-to-back outings in a massive pace-up spot, you can sure do a lot worse.
Brooklyn Nets @ Los Angeles Clippers (LAC -13, no total posted)
Brooklyn: ninth in defensive efficiency, ninth in pace
Los Angeles: fifth in defensive efficiency, eighth in pace
Being the last game of the slate, it’s normal to want exposure to a late-hammer, but be warned — this game could be ugly.
Caris LeVert, Joe Harris and Jarrett Allen are all expected to sit, so we can default to the rotation used the last time this happened last week against the Bucks. In that game, we saw the majority of the minutes as follows:
- 31: Chris Chiozza, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot
- 29: Rodions Kurucs
- 27: Tyler Johnson
- 26: Garrett Temple
- 20-21: Donta Hall (21), Jeremiah Martin (20)
In this game, we saw both Temple and Luwawu-Cabarrot produce over 1.25 FPPM operating as the high-volume players and with both priced at $5,000 or under ($3,900 for Luwawu-Cabarrot), they’re fine value plays given the sheer amount of opportunities they’ll have.
Chiozza and Kurucs would be the next best options, as Chiozza has proven to be a multi-category contributor and given the odds that Patrick Beverley may sit, he may have some room to work against Reggie Jackson. Kurucs should also see around the same amount of time he played against the Bucks. In his last two games where he saw at least 29 minutes, he’s topped 22 DKP in each, exceeding the targeted 5-5.25x value threshold, making him a passable value play.
The Clippers side of the ball is where this gets interesting. We saw Doc Rivers rest Kawhi Leonard Saturday and frankly, do everything he could to give Portland the win as he rolled out his B-team in crunch time. The question now, is will he do the same today and rest Paul George? This is certainly not a game they need to win, so my gut is telling me that a star rests and we see some wacky rotations — again, as George cited “load management” after the game when asked why he wasn’t playing down the stretch.
If George indeed sits, Leonard would get the biggest boost and while one of the best players in the league, I don’t feel comfortable banking on him seeing a full workload.
Regardless of whether the stars play, there are some usable pieces in this game. Reggie Jackson could very-well see significant playing with Patrick Beverley potentially out and Lou Williams still being eased back into things. He saw 35 minutes yesterday, attempting 14 shots and producing 27.5 DKP with his price remaining reasonable at $5,500. Landry Shamet is another player to focus on at only $3,700, as he saw 34 minutes last night with some respectable volume.
Ivica Zubac has been incredibly consistent lately, topping 30 DKP in three consecutive games while seeing 24-25 minutes in each of the last four outings. He should continue to see a similar workload tonight, regardless of whether a star rests, making him one of the best value plays at the center position.
