Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The last week of the NBA regular season rages on as we have a six-game NBA DFS slate on tap for Wednesday, consisting of tanking teams and other teams with a lot to play for.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Wizards at Hawks preview
ATL -6.5, total: 240.5
Even without Bradley Beal, the Wizards held their own in the last meeting between these two teams on Monday. Most of the rest was due to Russell Westbrook’s fourth game over 80 DraftKings points in his last five games. His price has finally risen to $12,400, and while he’s still firmly in play, he’s priced at a point where you can make the decision to fade. He realistically needs another performance of at least 75 fantasy points performance to bury you, but that’s obviously a very realistic outcome given his form. He’s still my top spend-up on the slate.
Outside of Westbrook, Rui Hachimura is the most reliable option, as he averages 18.5 points per game with a 6.33% jump in usage rate (up to 24.6%) in eight games without Beal this season. Raul Neto and Ish Smith should see more time once again, with Smith being the better per-dollar option off the bench.
Similar to Monday’s slate, my primary interest in the Atlanta side of this game stems from Trae Young and Clint Capela. Young has now topped 50 DraftKings points in three of his last five games and most recently posted a 36/9/6 stat line against these same Wizards on Monday. Capela was able to log a 10-point, 22-rebound double-double in 35 minutes and while 22 rebounds may be a stretch to expect, it’s certainly a repeatable outcome against the Wizards.
John Collins and Bogdan Bogdanovic would be the next tier of Hawks players, both surpassing the 40-DraftKings-point mark Monday. Bogdanovic is a more reliable asset, while Collins is best suited for large-field tournaments. The absence of De'Andre Hunter should also secure more wing minutes for Kevin Huerter and Danilo Gallinari if looking for value here.
Spurs at Nets preview
BKN -4.5, total: 233.5
This is going to be a game to keep our eyes on as lock approaches, as not only is Kyrie Irving questionable after suffering an injury Tuesday night, but James Harden is also a game-time-decision after missing the last five weeks with a hamstring issue. If both are active, it’s rather easy to avoid the stars here until we sort out who the alpha will be, seeing that we have only had seven games under our belts with all three active. If pressing for one in that situation, Kevin Durant would still be my lean, as he offers the most point-per-dollar upside.
If Irving is out, Durant becomes a priority for me regardless of Harden’s status. Not only do I have a hard time believing Harden will get a full workload after missing five weeks, but Durant also holds a 34.8% usage rate and averages over 54 DraftKings points per game. Obviously if both Harden and Irving are out, or if just Harden is out, Durant is still a priority here. Bruce Brown and Mike James would become elite value options as well if both Harden and Irving end up sitting out.
If looking anywhere outside of the big three, Blake Griffin would be my choice for $4,700, as he’s been getting the starts at center over the last few games. Over his last four, he’s averaged 13.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.1 stocks in 26.5 minutes per game.
This is still an exploitable matchup for the Spurs, even with the Nets tightening the screws defensively over the last few weeks. Because of the Spurs’ ambiguity in their rotations, however, I prefer to stick to the reliable pieces in Dejounte Murray and DeMar DeRozan. Murray at $7,100 feels a touch cheap and he rounded back into form last game, posting a 21/9/6 line in 35 minutes against the Bucks. DeRozan would be a 1B to Murray’s 1A here given his price, but the Spurs want to win to continue to pad their lead for the last spot in the play-in tournament, making him viable nonetheless. Lonnie Walker is the other Spurs player that I like here, as he’s seen 26 or more minutes in three consecutive games. If looking for tournament value, Keldon Johnson and Rudy Gay make sense, with the latter being far safer than the former.
Celtics at Cavaliers preview
BOS -10, total: 219.5
The Celtics dropped their game to the Heat Tuesday but come into this game as 10-point favorites against a tanking Cavs team. With the Celtics still needing to win to secure a spot in the No. 7 or No. 8 seed in the play-in tournament, we can expect everyone to get full run (or at least until they have a comfortable late-game lead). Because of this, Kemba Walker, Jayson Tatum and Evan Fournier are all elite plays in my pool. Tatum certainly offers the highest ceiling here, but Walker averages over 25 points per game with a usage rate north of 29% with Jaylen Brown out, while Fournier has now topped 33 DraftKings points in five straight games. At their prices, I’ll prioritize them over Tatum, but you won’t hear an argument from me if you do the opposite.
The Cavs are a team I have very minimal interest here on this slate, as they have zero motivation to win. Collin Sexton certainly carries a ceiling and should still see his normal allotment in minutes based on how thin their backcourt is, but at $8,400, he’s best left for large-field tournaments if you’re stacking a few Celtics. Outside of Sexton, I would only have interest in other pieces if Kevin Love sits out, as that would pave the way for Dean Wade to start his second consecutive game. Cedi Osman being out would also be a nice boost in that scenario as well. If Osman and Love sit out, Isaac Okoro would also be a viable play. While he does carry a nice ceiling, he’s also been a rather brutal per-minute producer this season, so expectations should be tempered.
Pelicans at Mavericks preview
DAL -10, total: 225
The Mavs are locked into a playoff spot, but being only one game ahead of the play-in tournament with the No. 7-seed Lakers also in action Wednesday, they need to win. Because of this, you’d think Luka Doncic has been taking the game into his own hands, but that hasn’t necessarily been the case. He’s shot under 50% from the field in four consecutive games, failing to top 20 raw points in back-to-back games and comes with a much lower floor at $10,800 than we’d hope for. He still carries an astronomical ceiling however, especially in this matchup after having a ceiling game last time they played. That said, he is not a priority for me Wednesday.
With Kristaps Porzingis potentially returning Wednesday, that could help free up some room for Doncic to operate, but it would also not make Porzingis a priority, either. Dwight Powell was ejected only 11 minutes into his stint Tuesday but could be a nice value piece at $4,400 Wednesday. Excluding the last game due to ejection, he’s topped 30 DraftKings points in three of his last four games.
On the opposite side of this game, Zion Williamson remains out, while Brandon Ingram is expected to sit and Steven Adams is listed as questionable. Lonzo Ball is a fine play once again, but he’s been rather disappointing since Williamson went down. The underlying rates indicate that there should be some progression on the horizon and $7,700 is certainly a nice price tag, but because of his form, I won’t consider him a core play. You can also look to Eric Bledsoe and Nickeil Alexander-Walker for offensive production. Alexander-Walker should hopefully see an uptick on his minutes’ limit after seeing 24 last game, giving him a nice ceiling for his price, while Bledsoe has been a reliable floor option in cash games.
Willy Hernangomez will be a viable mid-tier center play here if Adams is ruled out for the fourth consecutive game, as he’s averaged a double-double in 11 games without Adams this season.
Blazers at Jazz preview
UTA -3.5, total: 235.5
The Jazz step into a great matchup here, as the Blazers rank bottom-10 in points allowed per game, rebounds allowed per game, and rank 29th in defensive efficiency on the season. With both guards still out, my priorities are Bojan Bogdanovic, Joe Ingles and Jordan Clarkson, in that order. Over his last seven games, Bogdanovic has averaged 28.6 points on 50% shooting from deep, giving him an astronomical ceiling here. Ingles profiles as an elite cash-game play, while Clarkson is best left for tournaments given the rather one-dimensional nature of his game.
Rudy Gobert is certainly viable here, but at his price, I would rather get to someone like Clint Capela instead. Georges Niang also stands out as an exceptional value option for under $4,000, as he’s played at least 24 minutes in three consecutive games and should benefit from the elite matchup.
On the Blazers side, this is a more attackable Utah defensive unit without their two guards, as their defensive rating rises 4.15 points from 105.85 to 110.0. With Portland neck-and-neck with the Mavericks in the standings, winning here is vital. Damian Lillard may be the most trustworthy player in the clutch and while not by the literal definition, this game could be considered 48 minutes of clutch basketball. He’s an elite play in all formats on both sites for only $9,600. I also like the idea of shifting to CJ McCollum to shed some salary, as his sub-$8,000 price tag is far from indicative of his ceiling.
Jusuf Nurkic should get full run against a traditional center in Gobert, making him a great tournament option for only $7,200, while Norman Powell and Robert Covington are mid-tier tournament plays at best given their ceilings.
Rockets at Lakers preview
LAL -13.5, total: 224
The Lakers come into this game on the second leg of a back-to-back after a much-needed overtime win against the Knicks and should be able to handle the Rockets here for another important win. While the Rockets are a great matchup, I have my reservations about choosing Anthony Davis as a spend-up. He’s flashed his ceiling recently, but he’s also flashed a floor and will almost certainly be one of, if not the first player pulled from this game once the Lakers run out to a comfortable lead. He’s a fine tournament play as he can do more than enough damage in limited playing time, but it seems like an unwise spend-up in single-entry formats given the other options on the slate, especially with LeBron James expected back.
Andre Drummond is another good tournament play for only $6,000, as he has a legitimate 10x ceiling in this matchup. Kyle Kuzma and Talen Horton-Tucker should pick up additional ball-handling duties with Alex Caruso likely out, with the latter being my preference in single-entry contests for only $4,400.
For the Rockets, Christian Wood is a fine tournament play if active, but I have more interest in Kenyon Martin and Kelly Olynyk, regardless of Wood’s status. Both have been nothing short of phenomenal throughout the Rockets’ tank-a-thon and while both have been priced accordingly, their ceiling still outweighs the cost.
If DaQuan Jeffries and Danuel House are ruled out, that would open up more minutes for Armoni Brooks, Khyri Thomas and Anthony Lamb. Of the three, Thomas is my favorite, even at $5,600. I would prioritize Brooks then Lamb after that.
