NBA first look: Game-by-game DFS breakdown for March 30

The NBA continues to have these contrasting slates, as we move to a smaller four-game DFS slate Tuesday. There are still a handful of star players at very affordable price tags here so while you’ll need some value, it isn’t as crucial as it normally would be on a slate of this size. 

(Make sure to check out all of our other awesome NBA tools, including the Odds Tracker (above), the Prop Shop, and starting lineups page.)

Charlotte Hornets @ Washington Wizards

CHA -3.5, total: 229.5

Washington was without Bradley Beal for the second consecutive game Monday night. As a result, Russell Westbrook dominated, going off for an insane 35 points, 14 rebounds and 21 (yes, 21) assists. That’s 94.5 DraftKings points for those keeping score at home and it was the first 35-plus point, 20-assist triple-double in NBA history. Beal is questionable again for Tuesday — if he sits, feel free to go right back to Westbrook, who is averaging 99.5 touches per game with Beal sidelined over the last two games. And with Beal off the floor this season, Westbrook is sporting a massive 39% usage rate to go along with a 28% rebounding rate and 30% assist rate. Meanwhile, if Beal is active, $8,900 on DK is an extremely enticing price tag and he could get hot from three here, as 39.3% of the points scored against Charlotte this season have come from beyond the arc, the third-highest rate in basketball. And on such a small slate, we’ll need some value, and Deni Avdija is just $3,700 and should play 27-32 minutes here. 

For Charlotte, I am still perfectly fine with Terry Rozier at $7,700, especially in this spot. He is going to play huge minutes, and this is a strong spot for him. Washington is surrendering the fourth-most points per game in transition in the league (21.1). That bodes well for Rozier, who is averaging 5.6 transition points per game on the year, good for the fifth-most in basketball. Meanwhile, with LaMelo Ball obviously out, Devonte' Graham is still a bit too cheap at $6,100 on DK. He’s back to playing huge minutes and with Ball off the floor this season, Graham is sporting a solid 19% assist rate and 22% usage rate, while averaging just under a fantasy point per minute in the split. Gordon Hayward has also been scoring plenty in transition this season, averaging a healthy 4.4 points per game off the play type, which, as we discussed, suits him well in this matchup. 

Philadelphia 76ers @ Denver Nuggets

DEN -5, total: 220.5

Once again, Nikola Jokic is too cheap on DraftKings at $10,500. Throw the matchup rating out the window since the 76ers are still without Joel Embiid in the middle of that defense. Jokic still leads the NBA in touches per game on the season (101.8) and surprisingly, he leads the team in points per game off screens on the year (1.8). Don’t overlook that here, as Philadelphia is coughing up the 5.8 points per game off screens this season, the second-most in all of basketball. The 76ers are also allowing the fifth-highest field goal percentage off the play type at 44%. He should be at least $11,000 so take advantage of it. Meanwhile, Aaron Gordon made his Denver debut the other night and developed a quick rapport with Jokic, especially as a roll man. The peripherals for Gordon are likely going to come way down playing alongside Jokic, but he’ll certainly get better looks on the offensive end. Finally, the matchup isn’t elite, but Jamal Murray is still just $7,600 on DraftKings and we know what the ceiling is.

Tobias Harris has been very strong for fantasy since Embiid went down with his injury. He’s sporting a healthy 23% rebounding rate and 27% usage rate since Embiid left the lineup, while averaging a strong 1.30 fantasy points per minute in the split. Harris is hauling in more rebounds with Embiid sidelined and he’s attempted at least 18 shots in seven of his last eight games. And over his last 10 games, Harris is averaging 9.3 points per game off drives (14th), which could bode well for him against a Denver defense that is surrendering the highest field goal percentage in all of basketball at the rim (68.6%). Meanwhile, Ben Simmons continues to have a very high floor and over the last 10 games, he is averaging a healthy 86.1 touches per game, good for the eighth-most in the NBA during that span. You know what you are going to get with Simmons and $8,700 is a perfectly fine price tag. Dwight Howard has somehow been ejected in consecutive games which is why his minutes have been way down. Since Embiid’s injury, Howard has been absolutely dominating the glass, sporting an insane 52% rebounding rate. And over the last 10 games, Howard is averaging 17.4 rebounding chances per game (10th-most), while converting 63% of those opportunities into rebounds. Finally, don’t be shocked if Danny Green or Seth Curry got hot from three here. Denver ranks 24th against shooters according to our advanced DVP tool, while also allowing the fourth-most points per game to spot-up shooters (31.0).

Orlando Magic @ Los Angeles Clippers

LAC -11.5, total: 215.5

Paul George didn’t play Monday due to foot soreness, so we’ll see if he suits up here. In his absence, the Clippers started Luke Kennard, who scored nearly 32 fantasy points in 32 minutes. If George sits again, feel free to lock in Kennard as a fantastic value play at $3,400 on DraftKings. Terrance Mann could be interesting, but it’s worth noting he played the entire fourth quarter of a blowout the other night, so you have to wonder how many minutes he would have played if the game stayed closer. Of course, Kawhi Leonard at $8,800 is far too cheap, but especially if George is out again. With George off the floor this season, Leonard is sporting a 32.3% usage rate and 20% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.39 fantasy points per minute. Finally, Ivica Zubac has been productive as of late but still hasn’t been playing 30 minutes at a very consistent basis, despite Serge Ibaka being sidelined.

Despite this being just a four-game slate, the Magic aren’t really on my radar here. The price tags on these players really aren’t too enticing and because they traded away seemingly all of their good players, this roster is clearly short on high-end fantasy producers.

Atlanta Hawks @ Phoenix Suns

PHO -6, total: 221

This game features plenty of strong fantasy players, but the matchup isn’t really great for anyone. Phoenix is allowing the most isolation points per game in basketball this season, but Trae Young is only averaging 2.0 points per game off the play type, a number that puts him outside the top-20 in the NBA. Meanwhile, they have the players on defense to slow him down in Chris Paul and Mikal Bridges. Meanwhile, the Hawks have been a top-five defense against shooters off screens this season, while Devin Booker is averaging 2.1 points per game off the play type, 12th-most in basketball, so that doesn’t exactly bode well for him. Of course, Booker can get his against anyone and is still very fairly priced at $8,300, though I’d prefer CP3 at $8,000, going up against one of the worst defenders in the league in Young. Atlanta is also surrendering the third-most points per possession to opposing ball handlers out of the pick and roll this season (0.94), which obviously bodes well for a player like Paul. The Hawks are also allowing the seventh-most points per game to opposing roll men out of the pick and roll (8.1), as well as the fourth-highest field goal percentage off the play type (57%). Unfortunately, the Suns don’t use someone like Deandre Ayton in the pick and roll very often, as Dario Saric actually leads the team in such points per game this season (3.0). 

For Atlanta, I still have no problem with Clint Capela, despite coming off a poor game where he shockingly didn’t haul in 10-plus rebounds. He still leads the NBA in rebounding chances per game on the season (23.1) and facing Ayton and his league-leading 12.0 paint touches per game should ensure that he will be around the basket all game long.