Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Saturday presents us with a healthy nine-game NBA DFS slate with a handful of teams on the second leg of back-to-backs. This makes monitoring the injury reports throughout the day even more important with a heightened chance to see players resting.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
(Make sure to check out all of our other awesome NBA tools, including the Odds Tracker (above), the Prop Shop, and starting lineups page.)
Detroit Pistons @ Washington Wizards
WAS -3.5, total: 227
Coming into this game on the second leg of a back-to-back, the Pistons draw one of the most exploitable matchups on the slate. This immediately thrusts both Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee into consideration, as they’ve been two constants for the Pistons this season. Between the two, Grant offers a higher ceiling with his 28.0% usage rate, but Plumlee has been the better per-minute producer (1.08 DKP/min to 1.05 DKP/min), giving him enough upside to warrant a play as well.
The guard rotation in Detroit is a sticky one. We saw Cory Joseph active for his first game with the team on Friday, essentially causing a four-man rotation between Rodney McGruder (15.8 minutes), Saben Lee (15.5 minutes), Frank Jackson (10.6 minutes), and Joseph (18.0 minutes). You can even throw Hamidou Diallo (18.6 minutes) into that mix as well, making this a backcourt that’s way too easy to avoid given the ambiguity, especially if Dennis Smith Jr. returns.
For the Wizards, this is a strong matchup for both Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal. Given their recent play over the last four weeks, Westbrook is my lean, sporting a 32.7% usage rate and posting 1.57 DKP/min compared to Beal’s 1.19. The latter, however, is still viable considering the discount compared to Westbrook.
Rui Hachimura is the only other Washington piece worth considering, as he’s averaged 18.9 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 1.3 assists in 38.2 minutes per game over his last two weeks.
New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks
MIL -9.5, total: 223.5
This is the third matchup of the season between these two teams, with each of them winning one of their games via a blowout. Being the second leg of a back-to-back for the Bucks, I do have some slight concerns regarding Giannis Antetokounmpo’s minutes, or the potential to rest. He’s been dealing with knee soreness and was clearly in pain during Friday’s game against the Celtics, causing a bit of concern. If he’s active, he’s an elite option, as he showcased his per-minute upside in his last game against the Knicks, dropping 59 Draftkings points in only 29 minutes. If, in the off chance, he sits out, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday would become borderline locks. In their last game without Giannis, Holiday posted a season-high 64.25 DraftKings points, while Middleton followed behind him with 45.0.
Regardless of the status of Antetokounmpo, Pat Connaughton finds himself as a viable value option at $4,900. He’s seen at least 28 minutes in six straight games and should see that trend continue with both Bobby Portis and PJ Tucker sidelined.
I don’t have much interest in the New York side here, but you can never fully write off Julius Randle. He’s topped 46 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and aside from Giannis, may have the highest ceiling of any player in this game. RJ Barrett is also worth considering, especially on FanDuel where you need two small forwards, as he’s topped 33 FD points in six of his last seven games.
Houston Rockets @ Minnesota Timberwolves
MIN -5, total: 227
If you want to see one of the worst collapses in NBA history coupled with the Timberwolves’ largest comeback since 2019, take a look at the last 7:04 of this same matchup on Friday night:
In a 22-0 run fueled by Karl-Anthony Towns and Juancho Hernangomez, the Wolves defeated the Rockets and face them once again on Saturday. Towns and Anthony Edwards are both elite plays in this game, as the Rockets are one of the worst defensive units in basketball and both players are sporting usage rates north of 30% over the last two weeks. Towns, in particular, has averaged 1.43 DKP/min over that span and faces a defense that ranks 26th against scorers and 24th against rebounders.
Ricky Rubio had a floor game on Friday, going 0-7 from the field in 27.3 minutes, but had topped 35 FanDuel points in two of his last four games. If his shot is falling better than his last two games (combined 1-14 from the field), then he’ll make for a viable PG2 on FanDuel.
Being the second leg of a back-to-back, there’s a chance that we’ll either see John Wall or Christian Wood rested, or have their minutes limited on Saturday. Both are elite plays if they suit up and project for north of 28-30 minutes, but if one or both of them are out, we can turn to the supporting cast. The most likely beneficiaries would be Sterling Brown, David Nwaba, DJ Wilson, and Kevin Porter Jr. (if active). Of the bunch, Porter Jr. would be an elite play if active with a full workload, even more so if Wall ends up resting.
Chicago Bulls @ San Antonio Spurs
SAS -3, total: 223.5
The new-look Bulls will welcome their All-Star center to the court on Saturday, as Nikola Vucevic is slated to suit up. While this is exciting news from the standpoint of a fan, it muddies the waters a bit in terms of DFS, as we have to see how Zach LaVine and the rest of this Bulls team adjust to having another volume-heavy player involved. Vucevic, himself, is hard to trust in anything more than tournaments at $9,500 given the fact that he’s priced up based on his massive rates in Orlando and could very well see them dip with more offensive options around him in Chicago. This team as a whole is best handled with a wait-and-see approach on this slate.
The Spurs step into a matchup that is still favorable given the pace that the Bulls play at, but, much like the Bulls, it’s best to handle this matchup with a wait-and-see approach. With the Bulls integrating such an impactful player into their rotation, we could see them slow the pace down a bit and should see them improve incrementally on the defensive end.
Even so, both Dejounte Murray ($7,200) and DeMar DeRozan ($7,900) feel a tad underpriced on DraftKings. Both of them are averaging over a fantasy point per minute over the last four weeks, with DeRozan posting a 28.4% usage rate and 36.9% assist rate. He’s an elite play at this price in this matchup.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz
UTA -10, total: 228.5
While this game doesn’t have the lowest total on the slate, it’s the game that I have the least amount of interest in from a DFS perspective. Both teams have defensive units that I don’t go out of my way to attack while neither is running at a blistering pace.
If going anywhere in this game, I’d be most comfortable with Rudy Gobert. While his price has been above $8,000 for the last week or so, it’s come down a few hundred dollars relative to his last few games. Having topped 40 DK points in three of his last four games with 20 raw points in two of his last three, I want to get in on the Gobert train during his hot offensive stretch. He should see a healthy amount of minutes to counter Jonas Valanciunas once again after posting 25 points and nine rebounds in the same matchup on Friday.
Speaking of Valaciunas, he’s a nice option for a discount off of Gobert, as he posted 46.5 DK points against him on Friday and has now topped 44 in three of his last four games. The minutes volatility is always going to limit him to large-field GPPs, but he has slate-breaking upside.
I’m OK limiting my exposure to this game to the aforementioned players, as there are options around Ja Morant’s price that I prefer to him and Donovan Mitchell at $9,000 seems like a steep investment in such a middling matchup.
Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Pelicans
DAL -1.5, total: 229
In what should be the most enticing matchup of the day, we should expect Luka Doncic to make his return after he sat out in the first leg of the back-to-back on Friday. With fresh legs, Doncic checks in as my top overall play on the slate against a defense that ranks 19th against dimers, 18th against scorers, 26th against crafty finishers and 27th against superstars per FTN’s advanced DvP tool. There is no reason he should be priced below $11,000, especially after dropping 46/12/8 against them in their last meeting.
If fading Doncic (I don’t recommend it), getting exposure to Kristaps Porzingis (if active) will be crucial. Having played 38 minutes on Friday, however, his status is legitimately up in the air. If inactive, Maxi Kleber becomes an elite value play, while both Josh Richardson and Tim Hardaway Jr. should pick up extra responsibility on the offensive end.
The Pelicans’ side of this game is equally as appealing. Zion Williamson is coming off of a career-game on Friday, posting 39 points on only 19 shots, continuing his blistering efficiency from the field. The Mavericks are allowing the ninth-highest field goal percentage in the restricted area this season (64.9%) and with Zion leading the entire NBA in field goal attempts in the restricted area, he sets up beautifully once again.
Brandon Ingram is a fine pivot, but I don’t have nearly as much interest in playing him as I do in Zion. If Lonzo Ball remains out, I’ll continue to have interest in Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who’s posted a 23.4% usage rate and 1.07 DKP/min over the last two minutes with Ball inactive. Sure, you can also get away with Eric Bledsoe for his price, but I much prefer Alexander-Walker. Josh Hart is also a play that I’ve continued to love with Ball out and this slate is no different – he’s an elite option on both sites.
Boston Celtics @ Oklahoma City Thunder
BOS -9.5, total: 220
The Celtics are yet another team on the second leg of a back-to-back here and if we expect for this game to follow suit with their other back-to-backs, then we should expect Kemba Walker to sit out. This will give obvious boosts to both Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, who both see usage bumps over 3% (3.7% for Tatum, 3.4% for Brown). This should also give Marcus Smart a few extra minutes and if he can continue his blistering shooting from Friday, he should return nice value for his salary. If Evan Fournier suits up, however, that should siphon a bit of volume from all three of these players.
Against such a weak frontcourt, I do have interest in Robert Williams with Daniel Theis gone. He showcased his defensive upside on Friday, logging five blocks, nine boards, and even added a career-high six assists. If we expect another 27+ minutes, he’s a great mid-tier center option.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has already been ruled out for the Thunder and should remain sidelined for the foreseeable future, paving the way for Theo Maledon and Ty Jerome to man the backcourt. Maledon is the superior play of the two and for only $5,000, I do have some interest, but it’s hard to envision massive upside here.
There’s also a chance that Al Horford rests, as there is with any other game. This would thrust Moses Brown into the elite play category. If Horford is active, he’s certainly worth consideration at only $6,300 in tournaments.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Los Angeles Clippers
LAC -4.5, total: 223
The Sixers have been treading water without Embiid and it’s been on the backs of Ben Simmons (23.7% usage rate, 36.4% assist rate without Embiid this season) and Tobias Harris (27.4% usage rate, 18.6% assist rate, 1.25 DKP/min without Embiid this season). Both are viable here, but far from must-plays given the defense that the Clippers have.
Dwight Howard is a viable option as well, as he should be primed for 28-30 minutes with Tony Bradley out of the picture, even if Doc Rivers chooses to start Mike Scott again.
For the Clippers, both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George remain too cheap against a defense that sees a massive downgrade in the absence of Embiid. This game should stay close enough for four quarters for both to get there, but my lean is Leonard given George’s level of volatility lately. Ivica Zubac is probably my favorite option from this team, however. Over his last five games, he’s averaged 12.0 points, 8.4 rebounds, 2.0 blocks and 1.6 assists in 29.2 minutes per game. He should be on the court for at least as many minutes as Dwight Howard gets, giving him enough upside for a cheap price to warrant consideration.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Sacramento Kings
SAC -7, total: 221.5
We saw this same matchup earlier in the week, resulting in a 119 to 105 win for the Kings where both De’Aaron Fox (30 points) and Tyrese Haliburton (28 points) had massive games. Much of this has to do with the fact that Cleveland is one of the worst transition defenses in basketball, catering to both of these players’ strengths. Both are viable once again in this matchup.
I also have some interest in Richaun Holmes here, especially after he posted a 17-point, 16-rebound double-double against the Cavs in their last game. His price is getting higher, but he’s an elite GPP option given that upside. Buddy Hield is also viable and becomes more appealing on FanDuel now that he’s a small forward compared to how shallow that position is relative to the shooting guard position.
For the Cavs, Collin Seton’s status remains up in the air after he missed Friday’s game with a sore hamstring. If he’s able to suit up, however, I would expect a bounce-back from his floor game in this last matchup. He’s another player who thrives in pace-up spots, which is exactly what this is. If he’s out, we can default to Darius Garland once again, who saw 17 shot attempts in his last game and has now topped 15 in three straight games. He’s a more appealing play on FanDuel, however.
In the frontcourt, I have far more interest in Larry Nance considering the pace of this game than I do Jarrett Allen. Not only is Nance siphoning rebounds from Allen, but he’s been a point-per-minute monster. Over his last two games, he’s averaged 43.75 DK points in 30.5 minutes per game.
