Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The six-game NBA DFS slate for Tuesday is already down as many stars as there are games on the slate with the potential for more, as James Harden’s questionable tag has the potential to shake the slate to its core.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Denver Nuggets @ Orlando Magic
DEN -7.5, total: 217
There aren’t many studs to pay up for on the slate, which thrusts Nikola Jokic into the spotlight in this game. At $10,700 on DraftKings, it’s hard to argue paying for him, as he comes with the highest ceiling on the slate if James Harden ends up sitting out.
If not playing Jokic, you can get away with Jamal Murray or Michael Porter to get exposure to this Nuggets’ offense. We’ve seen Murray spark one of his hot streaks over the last week, posting a 24.8% usage rate, 23.3% assist rate, and 1.25 DKP/min. He should pick up a few extra minutes with Monte Morris out, making his $7,100 tag too cheap considering his recent form. Over that same week, we’ve seen Porter regress a bit to a 1.05 DKP/min clip, rendering him too risky for cash, but viable in GPPs. I’d rather go to Will Barton in cash, as he’s been consistent to the tune of 30-plus DraftKings points in seven of his last 10 games.
On the Magic side, Terrence Ross is listed as questionable while both Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon are off of the injury report. Gordon should continue to act as a primary ball-handler, even with Michael Carter-Williams back, as he sports a 34.1% assist rate with Cole Anthony and Markelle Fultz out. He’s a viable mid-tier target with upside and a worthwhile PF2 on FanDuel. I would, however, limit your exposure to GPPs given his recent request for a trade and our proximity to the trade deadline. Fournier is also a solid GPP play given his 27% usage rate with the point guards out and could benefit in a scenario where Gordon is traded.
Perhaps my favorite play on the Magic is Nikola Vucevic (shocking, I know). He’s posted a 32% usage rate, 24.7% assist rate, and 18.4% rebounding rate with Anthony and Fultz out and now faces off with a Nuggets team that is allowing the highest field goal percentage (69.2%) among all NBA teams in the restricted area.
Washington Wizards @ New York Knicks
NYK -2.5, total: 224
With this being an island game for the Wizards, we can expect both Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal to suit up. Unfortunately, however, this is a brutal matchup for the Wizards as a whole, as the Knicks play at one of the slowest paces in basketball while ranking towards the top of the NBA in defensive efficiency.
Between the two, Westbrook is my preferred target, as he’s been the more reliable asset in DFS recently. Over his last two weeks, he’s posted a 33.5% usage rate, 51.3% assist rate, 13.9% rebounding rate, and 1.62 DKP/min. Sure, he’s expensive, but with that production, it’s hard to argue against his price. Beal is a fine pivot, but his floor has been exponentially lower than Westbrook’s and his 28.7% usage rate over the last two weeks is nearly 7% lower than his season average before that span. He still has a massive ceiling, but give me the option with better recent form and triple-double upside.
Much of that drop in usage rate can potentially be attributed to the step forward that we’ve seen Rui Hachimura take over the last two weeks. Is 18.7% usage rate doesn’t jump off the page, but he’s seen 10 or more shot attempts in four straight games and hasn’t seen less than 37 minutes of action since March 12. He’s a viable mid-tier target that carries respectable upside.
The Knicks are the team with the obvious matchup boost here. Derrick Rose has officially cleared protocol after battling COVID-19, though he’s not a lock to return to action seeing that he needs to ramp up his conditioning. Should he and Elfrid Payton miss another game, it’ll be hard not to buy into Immanuel Quickley in this matchup. He has a 28.2% usage rate and posts 105 DKP/min with them out, numbers sure to rise in this matchup.
Both RJ Barrett and Julius Randle are viable as well. Barrett has recently strung together some consistent outputs while Randle has some of the highest upside on the slate in this respective matchup.
Los Angeles Lakers @ New Orleans Pelicans
NOP -6.5, total: 222.5
The Lakers will play yet another game without both superstars and their role players have now gotten price increases to align with their newfound roles. This matchup, however, is one that we can target even with the price hikes.
My favorite target on the team is Talen Horton-Tucker at $5,500 on DraftKings. This may sound odd with Kyle Kuzma, Dennis Schroder, and Montrezl Harrell all price right above him, but he saw 16 shot attempts last game in 28 minutes, only building on his 28.1% usage rate without the two stars. With that said, Schroder (27.3% usage rate, 29.8% assist rate, 1.07 DKP/min) and Montrezl Harrell (27.3% usage rate, 16.2% rebounding rate, 1.31 DKP/min) are my next two favorite options, with my slight lean going to Harrell. Kyle Kuzma is still viable as well, but he’s going to have his hands full with Zion Williamson, giving my lean to the aforementioned two.
This also makes the Lakers’ defense far more exploitable, making Zion one of the highest-upside plays on the slate. His peripherals have finally come around and he hasn’t shot less than 50% from the field in any of his last 10 games. If stacking a few Lakers in this game, it makes sense to run it back with Zion.
If not playing Williamson, Brandon Ingram is in a fine spot against his former team as well. He’s posted 30 raw points in two of his last three games and his sub-$8,000 price makes him one of the best small forward options, especially on FanDuel. Outside of these two, I don’t have much interest in this Pelicans team. Lonzo Ball is too risky if he’s in given the trade rumors. If he’s out, you can get away with Nickeil Alexander-Walker as one of the better value options on the slate, but that’s if and only if Ball is ruled out.
Phoenix Suns @ Miami Heat
PHO -1, total: 215.5
This is a classic example of a game that has far more appeal for a basketball fan than a DFS player. While I’m excited to watch this game, these are two stout defensive teams that come into a low-total matchup.
With Goran Dragic questionable for the Heat, we could once again see Kendrick Nunn in the starting lineup. Even at $4,300, I have reservations here rostering a guard that’s dependent on his shot falling when he’s going up against Chris Paul defense. I would rather opt for Tyler Herro at $5,700 off the bench in this scenario. Jimmy Butler would also receive a boost and while he would be dealing with Mikal Bridges on defense, his $9,300 tag is cheap enough to consider in tournaments given his form since returning from COVID-19.
Perhaps my favorite Heat option, however, is Bam Adebayo. $8,100 is a more-than-reasonable price and while Deandre Ayton ranks in the top-25 among centers in terms of DRPM, he’s struggled to defend the pick-and-roll this season, giving Adebayo enough upside here.
For the Suns, I have very minimal interest. I am completely off Ayton given his volatility in minutes and production, so would simply default to Chris Paul or Devin Booker here. Given the fact that Booker will see a ton of Jimmy Butler, Paul is my favorite option. His price is conducive to both cash and tournament formats, as $7,300 is simply too cheap given his ceiling of over 50 DraftKings points.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Golden State Warriors
PHI -3.5, total: 220.5
Two superstars have already been ruled out here, as neither Joel Embiid nor Stephen Curry will be suiting up. While Jordan Poole has been a huge beneficiary with Curry off the floor this season, I have reservations in this matchup given the fact that he could potentially see some Ben Simmons on the defensive side of the ball. Andrew Wiggins will also likely draw Simmons defensively, so it’ll be important to forecast out who you see avoiding him more, as that is a massive boost to their stock. Gun to my head, I think Wiggins will see more Simmons, making Poole a stronger play, especially relative to his salary.
Draymond Green and Kelly Oubre are interesting tournament plays, as Green has shown a ceiling despite the absence of Curry, while Oubre could pick up more volume with Wiggins or Poole locked down by Simmons. Both are too volatile for cash but make for fine tournament options. The big men (Eric Paschall and James Wiseman) are also returning, with the latter being an intriguing GPP flyer at $4,500. His conditioning and minutes restrictions are something to monitor, but his upside is through the roof if we can project for more than 25 minutes.
For the Sixers, both Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris are elite plays without Embiid. On the season, both are averaging over 1.2 DKP/min without Embiid in the lineup and now get a pace-up matchup against a rather porous defense. If making one a priority, my lean is Simmons, but you really cannot argue with either of them.
Dwight Howard is the other 76er that I have interest in, regardless of the fact that he isn’t starting. He’s played 30 or more minutes in two of his last three games and with the Warriors big men returning, we could see that move to three of his last four games. He’s also posting 1.18 DKP/min without Embiid this season with a 25.1% rebounding rate, making him a viable mid-tier center.
Brooklyn Nets @ Portland Trail Blazers
POR -4, total: 235
The nightcap presents us with the biggest ambiguity of the slate; the status of James Harden. With Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving already ruled out, Harden being deemed questionable has the potential to completely derail the slate. If he’s in, he’s a sure-fire bet to be the top spend-up on the slate, regardless of site or ownership. While he would be one of the chalkiest plays on the slate, this is someone that I want to either match or go over the field on given his sheer upside.
Regardless of his status, Bruce Brown is a usable piece from this Brooklyn team. He’s stepped up on numerous occasions with one or multiple stars out and should step into a heap of minutes as a legitimate double-double threat. If Harden is out, he’ll become a core play for me, but if he’s in, he’s an incredibly strong play as well. Joe Harris is another elite play on this slate, especially on DraftKings where he gets the three-point bonus. If Harden is out, he’ll be relied upon to shoulder the offensive load, but he’s cheap enough to use if Harden is in given the fact that he’ll be the second option on offense.
Chris Chiozza is a play contingent on the status of Harden. If he’s in, he’s hard to stomach. If out, however, he would likely step into 25 or more minutes at the point guard position and would become a much stronger option for me than Tyler Johnson, who I would expect to carry more ownership.
On the Portland side, we want Harden to play. If this game stays close, there’s legitimate upside for over 260 points to be scored, making Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum worthwhile options. McCollum is still a stronger tournament play than cash option because of his volatility since coming back, while Lillard carries some of the highest upside on the slate as a whole.
Enes Kanter is also an intriguing option, especially if we project DeAndre Jordan to see 30 minutes. That would be enough to keep Kanter on the floor and give him a heap of upside, as he ranks third overall in the NBA in rebounding chances per game (20.6). If we think the Nets run a small-ball lineup, this would thrust Robert Covington into the conversation, as he would pick up some minutes at the five opposite of Jeff Green.
