Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Sure, Friday is the first full day of the March Madness tournament, but don’t let that distract you from the fact that we have a massive 10-game NBA DFS slate on tap.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Sacramento Kings @ Boston Celtics
BOS -7, total: 234.5
The slate kicks off with one of the best fantasy matchups a team can ask for, as the Celtics welcome the Kings to Boston in a game that carries the highest total on the slate. I harped on how good Jaylen Brown is in transition on their last slate, but as a refresher, he ranks third in the NBA in transition possessions per game (5.4) and second in transition points per game (6.3). This bodes well against a Kings team that’s allowing the seventh-most transition points per game (21.1). For $7,500 on FanDuel, he’s one of my favorite options on the slate.
You can also get away with Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum here, with my lean being Tatum on DraftKings, where he’s only $900 more than Jaylen Brown. Walker is still viable in tournaments, however, given the matchup. Daniel Theis and Robert Williams are also worth consideration with Tristan Thompson out. Of the two, Williams carries a better range of outcomes, but you’ll have to pay a premium to get it.
For the Kings, it makes sense to get some exposure here if you plan to have more than one Celtics player. De'Aaron Fox is the obvious choice, especially against Kemba Walker, one of the worst defensive point guards in the league by the measure of defensive real plus/minus. Tyrese Haliburton is an intriguing play if fading Fox, as his $5,700 price tag has yet to catch up to the fact that he’s back to seeing over 30 minutes per game. Those minutes came at the expense of Buddy Hield, who saw 31 in his last game compared to at least 37 in each of the last three games. He’s still viable at $6,400, but there’s a bit more risk baked in than there was over the last week or two.
Richaun Holmes is still a worthy GPP play even with Hassan Whiteside back, as he was able to top 30 fantasy points last game despite getting in early foul trouble. As long as he avoids the same issue, he should be in line for over 30 minutes and has been an elite per-minute producer this season.
San Antonio Spurs @ Cleveland Cavaliers
SAS -2, total: 216.5
DeMar DeRozan remains out for the Spurs, so we should continue to see a similar rotation to what we have been over the last few games. This makes Dejounte Murray an attractive option against a Cavs team that’s tied for allowing the fifth-most transition points per game in basketball (21.1). His price has come down to $7,300 on DraftKings, providing room for a ceiling relative to his salary.
Outside of Murray, I find it both difficult and unnecessary to trust these ancillary Spurs pieces on a 10-game slate. They provide value, but with that value comes a frustrating level of volatility that I don’t feel comfortable with on this slate.
On the other side of this game, I don’t have a ton of interest in the backcourt, especially knowing that Murray will be on one of either Collin Sexton or Darius Garland (likely Sexton). If I am looking anywhere on the Cavs, it’s at Larry Nance. He’s started two consecutive games, averaging 37.5 minutes and 16.0 points, 9.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 2.5 stocks per game over that span. He’s still under $5,500 on both sites, making him one of my favorite mid-tier targets on the slate.
Utah Jazz @ Toronto Raptors
UTA -5, total: 229.5
The Jazz are on the second leg of a back-to-back after a stunning loss to the Wizards, and while Mike Conley sat out Thursday, it would make sense to see him back Friday. This would spell Joe Ingles back to the bench and render him (almost) useless in DFS, as his value truly spikes when the point guard is out. If the off chance occurs and Conley sits out, we can go right back to the well with the Utah guards, as my priority would be Ingles, followed by Donovan Mitchell, then Jordan Clarkson.
Regardless of Conley’s status, both Mitchell and Rudy Gobert are solid plays here. The Raptors interior has been far more exploitable this season after losing both Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol, giving Gobert enough upside to warrant his price. Mitchell has been phenomenal this season and should continue to be the key cog with his 32.5% usage rate this season.
The Raptors returned to (almost) full strength last game and should finally get there on Friday now that OG Anunoby has been cleared to return to game action. While this is great for their real-life outlook, it muddies the waters in terms of DFS, as Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Norman Powell and Pascal Siakam all tend to siphon usage from each other. Against the Jazz, I’m OK taking a pass on these four as a whole. The one Raptors piece I would have some passing interest in would be Chris Boucher if he draws the start as he did on Wednesday. To be transparent, however, I think it’s likely that he moves back to the bench ahead of a matchup with Gobert. If he starts, he would be a great tournament option that would clearly come in at low ownership.
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat
MIA -4.5, total: 215
This is another game with a rather cut-and-dry injury report, as both teams have started to return to full strength outside of Jeremy Lamb remaining out for the Pacers.
Both Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are viable options for the Heat, especially Butler given his newfound upside, but on a 10-game slate with this being one of the lower overall totals, neither of them are core plays. The only other player that I have any passing interest in on the Heat is Tyler Herro, as his $5,200 price tag on DraftKings feels a touch cheap given his upside. There’s been a bit more volatility in terms of playing time with both Goran Dragic and Kendrick Nunn active, but the upside is still there.
For the Pacers, Caris LeVert is still too cheap on FanDuel at $5,600. While he’s not the lock-button play that he was for $4,400 against the Nets, he still comes with realistic 6-7x upside at his price, which is more than anyone around him can say.
Much like the Butler/Adebayo combination, Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis are both viable with their sheer upside but are far from must-plays in a rather ugly game environment on a loaded slate.
Detroit Pistons @ Houston Rockets
HOU -2.5, total: 216.5
The Rockets have now lost 17 games in a row, but they come in as the favorites against the Pistons. This is likely due to the return of Christian Wood and Victor Oladipo, as well as the fact that John Wall has an outside shot of playing. With at least the two aforementioned players active, you can target both of them in tournaments. Oladipo comes with insane usage, as he’s a sure-fire bet for over 20 shot attempts, while Wood gets to square off with his former team that ranks in the bottom third of the league against five of his six archetypes, listed below per advanced DvP:
The return of these two plus the potential return of John Wall makes it hard to fully endorse Kevin Porter as a strong play, especially relative to how appealing he’s been over the last few slates. Given his production, it’s impossible to see him getting phased completely out of this rotation, but he’s almost certainly going to take a back seat. If Wall is out, I will have interest as he’d likely start at point guard. If Wall is in, I’ll pass.
Even with these players making their way back to the rotation, the Rockets are an attractive matchup to attack. They’re one of the worst transition defenses in basketball, which bodes well for players like Delon Wright and Jerami Grant. Mason Plumlee is also a fine tournament play, as the return of Christian Wood should keep him on the court more and provide more upside for defensive peripherals.
Brooklyn Nets @ Orlando Magic
BKN -8.5, total: 224
After missing the Nets’ last game with a groin issue, Kyrie Irving is listed as probable ahead of this game. That should return the usage to a normal distribution between him and James Harden. Both are viable in a favorable matchup, but with both active, neither are must-plays on this slate. If Irving does happen to be downgraded, Harden would become an absolute lock in one-lineup contests and someone that I would want to be over the field on in multi-entry formats.
For the Magic, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier returned to action Thursday, while Terrence Ross remained sidelined. Given how cautious the Magic have been with their players returning, it wouldn’t surprise me to see one or both of Gordon/Fournier to sit out on the second leg of a back-to-back. This would only strengthen the argument for Nikola Vucevic here, who’s averaged 31.0 points, 11.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 2.5 steals per game in his two previous contests against Brooklyn this season.
If Gordon is out and Fournier is in, he’s another piece that I would want exposure to, especially if Michael Carter-Williams remains out. Fournier has been a high-usage player whenever on the court and most recently saw 21 shot attempts against the Knicks. If both he and Gordon are active, he still makes for a solid play, but would be capped a bit in the peripheral department. Gordon would be viable as well, as his 31 minutes last night bodes extremely well moving forward and his price has failed to catch up across the industry.
Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies
MEM -9, total: 223.5
The Warriors are going to be extremely shorthanded Friday, as both Stephen Curry and Kelly Oubre are listed as doubtful, while Eric Paschall and James Wiseman have been ruled out.
This opens up a ton of volume for Andrew Wiggins, who’s a pain in the rear to roster, but it’s hard to argue with an outlook of nearly 30 field goal attempts. Given his $6,000 price on DraftKings, he’s a viable mid-tier play that won’t break the bank who sports a 44.5% usage rate with these four out (albeit in a 20-minute sample size). We should also see a lot more Jordan Poole, who comes in as my favorite overall value play on the day. He’s posted a 32.7% usage rate in 28.4 minutes with these four out, but even in a small sample size, it’s hard to ignore that number for only $4,500.
If wanting to pivot off Poole for the sake of ownership, Nico Mannion could pick up some extra run, as he started for Curry in the last game he was out. You can also get away with Draymond Green here, who should pick up a heap of ball-handling responsibilities while also getting more time at the five with Wiseman and Paschall out. I simply have reservations about this game staying close enough to give him a full workload and don’t see as much upside without elite offensive players to help him rack up assists. Damion Lee is the other dark horse that could see a massive uptick in production, as he saw 20 minutes last game and has stepped into the point guard role in the past. At $3,300, he’s a viable value that should come at minimal ownership.
The Grizzlies should be able to do literally whatever they want against this Warriors team, which is also implied in the spread. On a full slate, my interest is limited to Ja Morant and Jonas Valanciunas. Morant carries a ceiling of over 50 DraftKings points, making him one of the best mid-tier options at the position. Of the two, however, Valanciunas is my preference. The Warriors will have zero size to combat him in the post. While this could obviously force the Grizzlies’ hand and force them to go small with Brandon Clarke at the five, it also presents an opportunity for Valanciunas to absolutely destroy this team in 25-28 minutes. He’s an elite tournament play with astronomical upside, but given the small-ball risk, I can’t go here in a single-lineup format.
Chicago Bulls @ Denver Nuggets
DEN -7, total: 227.5
Want to know what the best way to cure a Nikola Jokic dud hangover is? A matchup with the Chicago Bulls. The Bulls have been absolutely torched by bigs this season and rank in the bottom-seven in literally all seven of Jokic’s player traits:
With Irving likely active for the Nets, it’s going to be extremely hard to talk me off of Jokic as my top overall spend-up on the slate. Outside of Jokic, this is a plus matchup for Michael Porter and Jamal Murray as well, who have been the two most reliable options around the center. My lean is Porter, as he comes with a similar level of volatility but at a cheaper price. He’s also flashed more upside lately. Will Barton is another Nuggets’ player to target, as he’s topped 30 DraftKings points in six of his last eight games and hasn’t dropped below 30 minutes once since the calendar turned to March. He’s my favorite mid-tier small forward on FanDuel.
Because I have so much interest in the Nuggets here, I want to make sure to get some Bulls exposure to. You’re probably sick of me sounding like a broken record here, but it’s really Zach LaVine or Tomas Satoransky for me. LaVine presents the most upside and if you expect this game to stay close, it’s safe to expect a ceiling game here. The Nuggets have been brutal around the rim, which bodes well for a player that slashes as much as LaVine does. Satoransky has been the value darling of the industry for the last trio of slates and the argument can be made that he’s still too cheap ($4,400 on DraftKings, $4,400 on FanDuel). He’s seen 30 or more minutes in consecutive games while starting three straight games and recording seven assists in all three games. For the price, you’re getting a rock-solid floor and 8-9x upside.
Dallas Mavericks @ Portland Trail Blazers
DAL -3.5, total: 234
This game carries the second-highest total of the slate (by only half of point) as well as some of the most star-power on the slate. Given the game environment, it’s going to be important to get one of either Luka Doncic or Damian Lillard in your lineups tonight, with Doncic being my preference.
He’s coming off of a game where he torched one of the best defensive units in basketball and carries a 35.9% usage rate, 44.4% assist rate, and 1.56 DKP/min clip into this game. His $10,400 price tag on FanDuel is insulting, making him my top overall point guard being only $100 more than Lillard on the other side of this game. If you aren’t playing Doncic and want Mavs exposure, Kristaps Porzingis is the obvious pivot. He’s averaged 1.22 DKP/min this season on the back of a 27.3% usage rate and should see at least 32 minutes in a competitive game.
For the Blazers, there’s a chance we could see CJ McCollum rest, as this is the first back-to-back set that we’ve seen them have since his return from a lengthy absence. This would only strengthen the case for Damian Lillard, who’s a game removed from a 50-point outburst and carries one of the highest ceilings on the slate. This also sets up well for Enes Kanter, as the Mavericks are allowing a 65.1% field goal percentage in the restricted area this season.
If McCollum is ruled out, this opens up volume for Robert Covington, Gary Trent and Carmelo Anthony as well, making them decent ways to get cheaper exposure to the high total if you are fading one or both of the studs.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Phoenix Suns
PHO -11, total: 231.5
This is a repeat matchup of a game we saw a mere 24 hours ago with the Wolves pulling out a shocking upset (and ruining my six-game parlay). I don’t expect the same result on Friday and neither does Vegas, as it’s hard enough to beat a team twice in two nights, but even harder when you’re the 10-point (or more) underdog in both games.
In tournaments, Anthony Edwards makes sense, as he attempted 31 shots last game, scoring 42 points to go along with seven boards. I expect the Suns to sell out to stop Edwards and potentially shift Chris Paul onto him instead of Devin Booker, but the ceiling is clearly there. Karl-Anthony Towns also had more than 40 points in this game and should be another great tournament option, either with or without Edwards in your lineup. The rest of this team, however, is unappealing on a 10-game slate.
For the Suns, Devin Booker and Chris Paul come in as elite options, especially given the fact that they’re rather underpriced on FanDuel. You can also get away with Deandre Ayton, who busted in this great matchup due to early foul trouble but has the potential to redeem himself Friday. He should come in virtually un-owned given the other options on this slate and the fact that he posted a dud against the same team Thursday.
