Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The NBA All-Star break is over, which means it is time to get back into the grind that is NBA DFS. Of course, Wednesday only offers a two-game slate, but for those who just couldn’t deal with the absence, it is more than enough basketball action.
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Washington Wizards @ Memphis Grizzlies
MEM -3, total: 238
The last time the Grizzlies faced the Wizards, I wrote up Ja Morant as an elite play. Of course, it was much easier to make a case for him when he was just $7,000 on DraftKings. But even at $7,800, I still have interest. For starters, Washington’s defense is nothing to write home about, while they give it up to opposing guards. In fact, the Wizards rank 22nd against dimers, 25th against primary ball handlers, 29th against scorers and 24th against crafty finishers this season, according to our advanced DVP tool. Meanwhile, teams are shooting 47.4% against Washington from the short mid-range this season, the second-highest mark in basketball. That bodes extremely well for Morant, as 35% of his field goal attempts this year have come from the short mid-range, which is essentially the free throw line distance. That number is the 14th-highest mark in basketball. Just ahead of Morant in that department? Teammate Jonas Valanciunas, as 36% of his field goals have come from that part of the floor, the 12th-highest mark in the league. At just $7,100 on DK, Valanciunas has a ton of upside and there is absolutely nothing wrong with this matchup. Finally, the last time we saw Dillon Brooks he went for over 50 fantasy points. Of course, it helped that he recorded three blocks and three steals to go along with his 23 points, four rebounds and seven assists. Those peripherals aren’t likely to be repeated by Brooks and his minutes have often been hovering around the low 30’s for most of the year but at $5,400, he’s worth a look.
For Washington, you know what to do. Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook are the plays here, as they have been throughout the entire first half of the season. Beal still leads the NBA in scoring (32.9 points per game), while his 34.9% usage rate is tied for the highest clip in basketball. Westbrook, meanwhile, has been flirting with triple-doubles in each of his last 10 games and is at a very nice price tag at $10,100 on DraftKings. He still leads all guards in rebounding chances per game and should once again provide a strong combination of floor and ceiling. If looking for someone outside of the two stars from the Wizards, Deni Avdija could be a viable value option at $3,100. With there only being two games, we will likely be starving for value Wednesday evening.
San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks
DAL -4.5, total: 222
Outside of rookie Devin Vassell, the Spurs will be at full strength for this game, which definitely makes them less appealing than before the break. But again, this is only a two-game slate, which changes things. Just in general, $8,000 is a fair price tag for DeMar DeRozan and we could see him score the ball efficiently here. The Mavericks continue to struggle to protect the rim, as they are allowing the seventh-worst field goal percentage from within four feet of the basket (66.0%), which bodes well for DeRozan, whose 19.1 drives per game this season are good for the fifth-most in the league. Rookie Keldon Johnson returned to the lineup for two games before the break, though he was on a minutes restriction, logging 11 and 22 minutes during that stretch. If we get word that his restriction has been lifted, he is very enticing at just $5,100 on DK. Meanwhile, we know that Dejounte Murray has plenty of upside, as he contributes in every single category. $7,500 is priced about right with San Antonio essentially at full strength but it is worth noting that the Mavericks have actually done a very good job of defending point guards this season.
Luka Doncic sat out with a back issue right before the All-Star break, which led to Jalen Brunson entering the starting lineup. With Luka back, Brunson is someone you can avoid at nearly $6,000 on DraftKings. Of course, Doncic is firmly in play, especially whenever he is under that $11,000 price tag. Dallas has underwhelmed as a unit this season, but Luka is still posting great numbers, averaging 28.6 points, 8.4 rebounds and 9.0 assists per game, while also sporting a 34.9% usage rate, 24% rebounding rate and 25% assist rate. Outside of Luka, I have some interest in Kristaps Porzingis against a Spurs defense that is coughing up the sixth-most points per possession (1.09) and fourth-highest field goal percentage (42.3%) to opposing spot-up shooters this season. Porzingis, meanwhile, is averaging nearly five spot-up points per game on the year, while sporting a near 25% frequency rate off the play type.
