NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
More playoff basketball? Fine by me. We have a two-game NBA slate on Tuesday night with both contests being very, very intriguing. It is fun to look at stats and metrics but also how teams are running rotations and what defensive schemes they are running as they play different teams over the course of the playoffs.
Let’s take a look at Thursday’s games.
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Hawks @ 76ers preview
PHI -6, total: 223
Game 1 of this series was wild. The Hawks got off to a huge lead and didn’t look back, that is until the final three minutes of the game, of course. They ultimately held on for the win, but I expect a major bounce back from Philadelphia tonight. Atlanta shot 43% from beyond the arc, up from their regular-season average of 37.3%. Meanwhile, the 76ers committed 19 turnovers, including 11 in that awful first half, up from their regular-season average of 14.3 per game. I am interested to see how Philadelphia defends Trae Young tonight, as their plan in Game 1 wasn’t strong. Danny Green was the primary defender on Young throughout the game and it didn’t work, as Young scored 35 points to go along with 10 assists. In the second half, Ben Simmons covered him a lot more while the 76ers trapped him after he passed halfcourt quite a bit. I think Simmons will be on him a lot more in Game 2 but more so in the second half, as Doc Rivers likely doesn’t want to run the risk of Simmons getting into early foul trouble. I expect Green and/or Matisse Thybulle to start the game on Young but given his talent and usage, he’s always in play. During the playoffs, Young is averaging 9.9 minutes of possession per game, the second-highest mark in the NBA, while also sporting a 34.1% usage rate. And if we see Simmons cover Young more in the second half, as well as more traps by the 76ers defense, Bogdan Bogdanovic could be very good again. The 76ers were bottom-seven in points per game allowed to opposing shooting guards a season ago while also allowing the second-most points per game to shooters off screens over the course of the season (5.4). Finally, John Collins isn’t my favorite player to use in DFS when Clint Capela is healthy but he is coming off a strong game and is just $5,600 on DraftKings. If Capela gets into foul trouble against Joel Embiid, Collins will walk into more rebounding opportunities.
For Philadelphia, Embiid remains the focal point of this team. Despite clearly not being 100% in Game 1, Embiid went off for 39 points on 12 of 21 shooting and 14 of 15 from the field. He also added nine rebounds, four assists and three blocks. The Hawks doubled Embiid in the post a lot and then would run a three-man zone, which is really smart. But you can’t double him every possession, especially if the supporting cast from Philadelphia is hitting their shots. Meanwhile, the 76ers actually lead the playoffs in pace right now, which is good for Simmons, who is sporting one of the highest transition frequency rates in basketball. Teams continue to foul him on purpose to put him on the line, giving him chances at free points if he can, you know, make his shots. I am also perfectly fine with Seth Curry at $5,000 on DK, who has been playing very well over his last three games.
Clippers @ Jazz preview
UTAH -4, total: 220.5
Game 1 of this series kicks off tonight, and we’ll see if Kawhi Leonard can continue to dominate. He averaged 32.1 points, 7.9 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game against the Mavericks while shooting 62% from the field and 44% from beyond the arc. He has been much more aggressive, averaging nearly 17 drives per game, way up from his regular-season average. You can make the argument that $9,900 on DK is still a touch too cheap for Leonard, regardless of the matchup. Paul George, meanwhile, also played well to end the series, especially on the defensive end. His 26.3% usage rate in Round 1 is right behind Leonard’s 27.7% mark, as he remains incredibly involved in this offense. If looking for some potential value on this slate, Nicolas Batum is playing nearly 40 minutes per game as of late for the Clippers and is $4,600 on DK ahead of tonight’s contest. I also wouldn’t hate giving Reggie Jackson a look, as the Jazz allowed the second-most points per game to opposing ball handlers out of the pick and roll this season (21.8), while they also could be without Mike Conley for this game.
Speaking of Conley, he is questionable for the Jazz tonight. He played great in Round 1, and his absence would change things drastically for this team. If Conley is out, Jordan Clarkson and Joe Ingles become a lot more trustworthy in fantasy. With the veteran point guard off the floor this season, Clarkson is sporting a 28.7% usage rate while averaging 1.07 fantasy points per minute in the split. Ingles, meanwhile, sees his assist rate jumps up to a solid 18% mark with Conley off the floor, as he usually facilitates a lot more whenever the Jazz are without either Conley or Donovan Mitchell. And staying on Mitchell, he’ll see a ton of usage regardless, as his 35.7% usage rate during the playoffs is the second-highest mark in the league, making him a good play if Conley is active and a fantastic play if he’s inactive. Finally, I am perfectly fine with Rudy Gobert at $7,900, who will dominate the glass and faces a smaller Clippers frontcourt that has no one capable of matching his size.
