Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The workweek kicks off with a pair of Game 4s, as both the Hawks and the Clippers will try and even their respective series at two games apiece.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given the news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Sixers at Hawks preview
PHI -3.5, total: 225.5
The Sixers have won each of the last two games by 16 points, taking a 2-1 series lead and one that feels more commanding than the series standings may give off. Much of this success has come on the back of Joel Embiid, who’s spelled any talk of his meniscus by averaging 35.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 2.3 stocks in over 35 minutes per game this series. At $10,500, he’s the most expensive player on the slate and one of the first I want in my single-entry lineups.
Whether you play Embiid or not, both Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris are viable options at their prices. I tend to lean toward prioritizing Simmons over Harris if I have Embiid and going vice versa if I am fading Embiid, as Harris’ primary production comes from scoring, whereas Simmons correlates a bit better with Embiid. Seth Curry will continue to get a few extra shots with Danny Green out while Furkan Korkmaz should continue to see an extended run in Green’s place. Both are viable plays at their prices. Shake Milton is also worth a dart throw in tournaments, though his playing time is relatively dependent on how effective he is in his first rotation, making him an incredibly risky value play. Dwight Howard is also an intriguing value at $3,600, as he should see anywhere from 10-15 minutes and he’s been a stellar per-minute producer in the postseason.
Trae Young has been “contained” a bit over the last two games with Ben Simmons as his primary defender, failing to top 50 fantasy points in either game, though he’s averaged 24.5 points and 9.5 assists in those two contests. He still grades out as an elite option at $9,200 on DraftKings, but he’s not a priority in single entry lineups for me. I would rather get my Hawks’ exposure via Bogdan Bogdanovic, whose price has dropped down to $6,400, John Collins or Kevin Huerter, both of whom feel a bit underpriced.
You can also make a case for Danilo Gallinari with De'Andre Hunter out, especially at what should be lower ownership than Huerter. Clint Capela is also a viable option, but his upside has been capped with just about zero priority on the offensive end in this offense, meaning he’d need a ceiling game on the boards to really flirt with a ceiling fantasy performance.
Jazz at Clippers preview
LAC -5, total: 224
The Clippers managed to get back on track last game, blowing the Jazz out by 26 points in Game 3 while redeploying their small-ball starting five. Whether or not we see Ty Lue roll with the same starting lineup remains to be seen, but there are still a few constants in this rotation.
Both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George should continue to see 40-ish minutes of playing time, making them two of the highest-ceiling players on the slate. My goal is to pair one of them with Embiid, but playing both together is also a viable strategy and not necessarily difficult to do if you’re fading Embiid. The other constant here is the role Reggie Jackson continues to fill. Aside from his 17-minute game due to foul trouble in Game 1, he’s played at least 28 minutes in each game this series and continues to be a key ancillary piece in the scoring department. He’s a very viable option at $5,200.
The frontcourt is where the ambiguity lies, as Nicolas Batum played 35 minutes and a ton of center in Game 3 while Marcus Morris’ 22 minutes marked his lowest total of the postseason. Meanwhile, Ivica Zubac got shifted back to the bench and saw 13 minutes of action. All three have their own level of viability, as Batum would be an elite value option if he’s announced as the starter, and the same can be said for Zubac. Morris is a player who is viable regardless of the starting lineup, as I’d like to think his 22 minutes are an outlier given the fact that we’ve seen at least 30 from him in all but three playoff games. Outside of those players, Patrick Beverley, Luke Kennard and Terance Mann all seem to be in the mix for minutes, but your guess is as good as mine as to how they’ll shape out.
The Jazz rotation is far more predictable, with the only question mark being the status of Mike Conley, who’s currently listed as questionable. If he sits once again, we should see Joe Ingles remain in the starting lineup with Jordan Clarkson picking up a few extra shots and minutes off of the bench. If he’s in, I would expect Ingles to shift back to the bench role, making him harder to justify as a play given the decrease in minutes that he would see.
Donovan Mitchell remains an elite option despite tweaking his ankle in Game 4, as he stated that he could’ve come back into the game if it wasn’t already out of hand. He brings some of the highest upside of the slate to the table, so $9,000 is a reasonable price to pay. Both Rudy Gobert and Bojan Bogdanovic are fine options at their prices, they just simply aren’t priorities with my attention being more on the backcourt for Utah.
