Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Sure, the NFL playoffs start Saturday, but we also have an action-packed seven-game slate around the NBA for our DFS pleasure. With a handful of injury and quarantine implications, it’s important to monitor all of the hypotheticals on this slate.
Vegas odds derived from DraftKings SportsBook. All totals from the time of writing are posted. With that said, some games will not have totals posted if there is outstanding injury news.
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Atlanta Hawks (-5) @ Charlotte Hornets (228.5 total)
Pace: ATL (11th), CHA (12th)
Defensive efficiency: ATL (17th), CHA (14th)
In the second game between these two teams this season, Trae Young finds himself too cheap at $9,400 once again. He struggled in their first meeting, shooting only 2-9 from the field, but still holds a team-high 32.8% usage rate while posting 1.29 FPPM. Both John Collins ($7,500) and Clint Capela ($7,000) are both viable on a shorter slate, but both come with a level of volatility. Of the two, Capela is the preferred option for $500 less since his production doesn’t rely as much on scoring as Collins’ does. The absence of Bruno Fernando could open up a few additional minutes for Capela.
With Danilo Gallinari out, we can continue to target De'Andre Hunter, Cam Reddish and Bogdan Bogdanovic as lineup fillers, with the order of preference being that exact order.
The Hornets are coming off the second leg of a back-to-back, so fatigue is something to consider here. With that said, this is a great matchup. LaMelo Ball remains the top option here as he continues to inch closer to that ever-elusive triple-double, finishing one assist shy Friday evening. His price tag is reasonable for the upside that he continues to flash.
Gordon Hayward’s price is a tough pill to swallow, but he had a career-outing last game against the Hawks, posting 44 points, seven rebounds and two assists. While he should be expected to replicate this, it shows the ceiling potential that this matchup presents. Both P.J. Washington and Terry Rozier are worth consideration (more so Washington), but neither are top plays in this game.
Phoenix Suns @ Indiana Pacers (-3, 216 total)
Pace: PHO (30th), IND (16th)
Defensive efficiency: PHO (T4th), IND (8th)
This is a prime example of a game that’s a much more appealing matchup from the standpoint of a fan than it is from the standpoint of a DFS player. While Malcolm Brogdon, Domantas Sabonis and Victor Oladipo can all warrant some consideration in tournaments, Phoenix is one of the best defenses in the NBA while also running the slowest pace. This isn’t a spot that I want to attack for Indiana.
A similar tune can be sung for the Suns against the Pacers, as they’re also one of the top defensive units this season. Chris Paul is the one Suns player that I have interest in, as his $7,100 price tag on DraftKings is something that’s easy to swallow, especially seeing his minutes rise after almost 38 last game.
Miami Heat (-5.5) @ Washington Wizards
Pace: MIA (T20th), WAS (1st)
Defensive efficiency: MIA (9th), WAS (26th)
On the second leg of a back-to-back, the Wizards may be more targetable than they typically are, especially after Bradley Beal admitted that they “can’t guard a parked car” in his post-game interview on Friday.
The defensive struggles and high pace for the Wizards puts Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler squarely in play. They’re first and second on the team in fantasy points per minute (1.24 and 1.15, respectively), carry assist rates over 27% and usage rates of at least 24%. The discount on Butler is nice, but Adebayo is in the coveted “centers against the Wizards” spot.
The rest of the Heat are hard to trust because of how involved everyone gets. Goran Dragic may be the next-best option at $5,700 on DraftKings, especially considering the fact that he still leads the team in usage rate (27.3%).
Being the second half of a back-to-back, it would make sense to see Russell Westbrook sit out. This would once again thrust Beal into must-play territory. He’s scored 101 total points over his last two games (Westbrook was active) and holds a 38.8% usage rate sans Westbrook. He’s too cheap for his upside. This also thrusts Raul Neto back into the conversation, as he’s producing roughly a fantasy point per minute (0.97) without Westbrook and remains cheap at $4,100 assuming he gets the start.
Even though the absence of Westbrook opens up peripheral opportunities for just about everyone on the team, it’s hard to trust the ancillary pieces in this matchup. Rui Hachimura could see a nice usage and rebounding bump, though, and remains far too cheap at $4,500, especially after 37 minutes last game.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Milwaukee Bucks (-15.5)
Pace: CLE (28th), MIL (5th)
Defensive efficiency: CLE (1st), MIL (16th)
Even with the Bucks on the second half of a back-to-back, Vegas clearly doesn’t expect this game to be close. This spread may also imply that Collin Sexton is expected to sit out again. This would continue to provide more playing time for Damyean Dotson as one of the only active guards. His 22.1% usage rate and 20.6% assist rate are something I want to target at $4,300, and even more so for only $3,800 on FanDuel. Cedi Osman is in a similar boat, as he sees a massive bump in facilitating responsibilities (31.3% assist rate), while seeing a 28.7% usage rate and 1.10 FPPM with Sexton, Darius Garland, Kevin Love and Dante Exum out. He’s an elite mid-tier play in this case.
Andre Drummond sees a 35% usage rate and posts 1.29 fantasy points per minute with these players out, but the concern here is whether or not this game stays close enough for him to get there. The spread says it won’t, but my gut is telling me it will. While not a top priority, he remains an elite option with all of the added peripherals he’s getting.
For the Bucks, we should still see at least 30 minutes of Giannis Antetokounmpo after 33 minutes on Friday. Given the matchup, I refuse to not recommend him. With that said, he’s not a must-play with Luka Doncic being a bigger priority for me on this slate.
Both Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday are fine mid-tier plays, but neither need to be forced into lineups. If you’re multi-entering tournaments, I would recommend getting exposure to them in lineups that you choose to fade Giannis. Brook Lopez is the ancillary Buck that I have the most interest in, as he’s still only $4,700 on DraftKings. It won’t take much for him to get there and this is a matchup where he can certainly do it, especially seeing him attempt 12 (!!) threes Friday night.
San Antonio Spurs (-6.5) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (231.5 total)
Pace: SA (10th), MIN (7th)
Defensive efficiency: SA (23rd), MIN (29th)
Minnesota continues to be a team we want to target, and that doesn’t change Saturday. Dejounte Murray is likely going to be a core play for me in this matchup. While the Timberwolves rank 13th against primary ball handlers and fourth against craft finishers, they really struggle against facilitating point guards, ranking 24th against dimers. On top of that, he’s averaging 1.12 FPPM and posting a 24.3% usage rate. The pace of this game and the minutes security should have Murray lined up for a ceiling game here.
DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge are fine complementary pieces in this game, but the discount on Aldridge over DeRozan would have me leaning his way. He saw 31 minutes last game and doesn’t look like he’s skipped a beat this season, making this a great game to target him at $6,300 on DraftKings and $6,400 on FanDuel.
The big news out of Minnesota is the fact that Karl-Anthony Towns has been upgraded to questionable for this game. While it may be ignorant to assume he’d get a full workload if active, his sheer presence would obviously hurt the fantasy stock of the rest of the team. If he’s active, I’ll likely avoid Minnesota altogether. If he’s out, we can go right back to the well with D'Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley. Russell is obviously the more reliable option, as he’s averaging 1.17 FPPM with a usage rate north of 30%, but Beasley has demonstrated a great ceiling over the last week.
Juancho Hernangomez would also take a significant hit if Towns is active, but if he’s out and Hernangomez ends up starting, he’s worth a flier. He’s still only $4,500 on DraftKings and while he came back to Earth last game, he still has a massive ceiling and will shoot the ball enough to get you there at his price.
Orlando Magic @ Dallas Mavericks (-7)
Pace: BKN (5th), MEM (T12th)
Defensive efficiency: BKN (6th), MEM (15th)
This is the game to monitor on the main slate, as three separate Mavs (Dorian Finney-Smith, Jalen Brunson and Josh Richardson) are all quarantined due to health and safety protocols. Not that there needed to be any more reason to lock in Luka Doncic, but knowing he is literally one of two remaining ball handlers on the team makes him the best overall play on the slate.
These absences should also boost the stocks of Trey Burke, Maxi Kleber, Tim Hardaway and James Johnson. Of that group, Burke and Johnson are my favorite dollar-for-dollar options, as Johnson is only $3,200 while Burke is the stone-minimum on DraftKings at $3,000. Burke is an extremely high-usage player when on the court, so getting him at minimum price might make him the most popular value option on the entire slate.
For the Magic, Michael Carter-Williams remains out, as does Markelle Fultz and the status of Evan Fournier is very-much up in the air. With Aaron Gordon expected back from Friday’s rest, we should see the usage funnel through him and Nikola Vucevic Saturday. Both are viable options, but the $2,000 discount that you get on Gordon compared to Vuc makes him easier to fit.
Cole Anthony remains cheap at $5,500, but proceed with caution here. Prior to the Friday game, Steve Clifford said that Anthony isn’t ready to handle the workload of a starter and that he was dead-tired after 30-plus minutes two games ago. While he’s a high-usage player when on the court, he’s best left for tournaments with this in mind, as his floor is too low for cash.
Terrence Ross is viable once again if Fournier is ruled out, but Friday night was a healthy reminder that he’s still an incredibly volatile player and should be approached with that in mind.
Portland Trailblazers (-5) @ Sacramento Kings
Pace: POR (8th), SAC (13th)
Defensive efficiency: POR (25th), SAC (30th)
A nightcap with two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA? Yes, please. This matchup is one we should be licking our chops for when looking to Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, who all of a sudden this season are both viable together on just about every slate. Both of them are averaging over 1.3 fantasy points per minute, while Lillard holds the incrementally higher usage rate at 30.1% compared to 29.4% for McCollum. Lillard is sure to be more popular and while I prefer him in cash games, McCollum feels like one of the best leverage plays in GPPs on the entire slate.
Outside of those two, it’s been tough sledding for the rest of the Blazers in fantasy. Jusuf Nurkic is starting to come around a bit, averaging 14.5 points, nine rebounds and four assists over his last two games. The issue, though, is the minutes, as he’s still seen only 25.5 minutes per game over those two games. His price is reasonable given the ceiling we know he comes with, so he remains a fine GPP play.
For the Kings, it’s looking likely that they’ll have a healthy rotation after De'Aaron Fox and Richaun Holmes were question marks ahead of Friday’s game. That makes Fox an elite option if we get news that he’ll be back to a full workload, as he’s leading the rotation players in usage (28.6%) and assist rate (29.8%) while averaging 1.17 FPPM. Holmes' price is a bit too steep on DraftKings for cash games, but his 1.04 FPPM clip keeps him afloat in tournaments if he sees more than 30 minutes. Marvin Bagley should continue to eat into Holmes’ minutes, but he’s best left for tournaments until he consistently starts seeing north of 30 per game.
Tyrese Haliburton is the other Kings player to consider. Even with Fox healthy, he’s started to carve out a significant role for himself, averaging over a fantasy point per minute and posting 14.3 points, five assists, 3.7 rebounds and 2.3 steals per game over his last three games (30.1 minutes per game). He’s an elite tournament play to counter the ownership of Fox.
