Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NBA rolls on with a modest five-game slate Thursday evening, and even though we don’t have a ton of games, there are still plenty of high-end stars to choose from on this slate for DFS. That makes it very interesting to see what some lineups look like after lock.
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Philadelphia 76ers @ Brooklyn Nets
PHI -2; total: 225
The Nets are obviously going to be without Kevin Durant again, though after one game, perhaps they don’t need him?
Yes, that was a joke. But still, the Nets destroyed the Jazz in their last game, led by a stellar outing from Kyrie Irving, who went off for 29 points, six rebounds and five assists on 12-of-19 shooting. His usage rate was just over 30% in this game and is now sporting a 31.9% usage rate and a whopping 1.74 fantasy points per minute in 45.5 minutes with Durant off the floor. Irving’s price went up to $9,600 on DraftKings, which honestly isn’t enough with Durant still sidelined. Philadelphia has been the best defensive unit in basketball so far this season, but we just saw Bradley Beal go off for 60 real points against this team Wednesday night. Meanwhile, Caris LeVert was very popular the other night and though he once again came off the bench, the talented scorer was productive, flirting with 37 fantasy points in just 21 minutes of work. You want LeVert to continue to come off the bench, as he’ll dominate the usage with the second unit. Tuesday night against Utah, LeVert had a massive 40.7% usage rate and assuming this game stays closer, he should play much more than 21 minutes.
The Nets started Bruce Brown and Jeff Green in their last game, with Joe Harris moving to the bench. That might have been due to Brown having success in the past against Donovan Mitchell, so it’s entirely possible that Harris returns to the starting lineup. Still, I have some interest in him regardless, facing a 76ers defense that is coughing up the most points per game off screens so far this season (9.0), as well as the second-highest field goal percentage (55.8%) off the play type. That bodes well for Harris, who is averaging 2.5 points per game off of screens on the year, good for the seventh-most in the NBA. It is one of the reasons why I loved Beal against Philadelphia Wednesday night and while Harris isn’t close to the player Beal is, he could get plenty of good looks from Irving and LeVert.
Finally, the frontcourt remains interesting. Jarrett Allen moved into the starting lineup against Utah and was once again dominant, scoring 19 points to go along with 18 rebounds in 32 minutes. DeAndre Jordan, meanwhile, played a season-low nine minutes, as he ran into some foul trouble. Allen is clearly the better player with a higher ceiling but there is plenty of risk with him whenever Jordan is active, but especially here against Joel Embiid, who is being fouled on nearly 20% of his shot attempts so far this season. If Allen starts the game and gets into foul trouble against Embiid, there could be a path to 25 minutes for Jordan, who is worth a shot at just $4,200 on DK.
Philadelphia, meanwhile, is coming off the front end of a back-to-back, which means there is an outside chance Embiid sits. If he’s good to go, it is hard to not go right back to him at a too-cheap $9,500 price tag. The Nets have been a team you can deploy centers against over the last few years and are currently allowing the seventh-most rebounds per game to the position. Meanwhile, the rest of the 76ers are fine at their price tags, while players like Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris would become top-tier players if Embiid does ultimately sit out here.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Memphis Grizzlies
MEM -4; total: 212.5
I like some of the Memphis players in tournaments here, starting with Mr. GPP himself, Jonas Valanciunas. JoVal played 39 minutes in a game against the Nets back on Dec. 28, which was the game Ja Morant suffered his injury. Since then, Valanciunas has logged 24, 26, 26 and 26 minutes, so it appears that game was clearly an outlier. Still, now that his price tag is down to $7,200, I absolutely love his upside here. Valanciunas is dominating the glass, ranking second in the NBA in rebounding opportunities per contest (21.0), while also sporting a massive 41% total rebounding rate. He should be around the rim all night against Andre Drummond, who is averaging 11.9 paint touches per game so far this season, the most in the NBA. Valanciunas likely doesn’t play 30-32 minutes here, but given his usage rate (25.9% without Ja Morant) and matchup, he only needs 27 or 28 to offer a huge ceiling game in tournaments.
I also really like Dillon Brooks in this spot. Brooks leads the Grizzlies in usage rate with Morant off the floor this season (29.8%), while averaging 1.04 fantasy points per minute in the split. He is averaging a healthy 17 shot attempts per game this season and should continue to see strong volume until Morant returns. Brooks attempts plenty of three-pointers but also has done a lot of damage in transition so far this year, averaging 4.6 transition points per game, while shooting 64% from the field off the play type. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, were an awful transition defense a season ago and have struggled in that department again this season, coughing up the most points per game in transition (26.0).
For Cleveland, it is hard to not just go right back to Andre Drummond. His $8,400 price tag on DK is the lowest it has been since the first game of the season, while he leads the league in rebounding chances per game (21.3), just ahead of Valanciunas. He is converting 66% of those chances, too. The Grizzlies have been a poor post defense this season, too, surrendering the fourth-highest field goal percentage to the post (57.1%), while Drummond is averaging 5.9 post-up points per contest this season, good for the third-most in basketball.
Darius Garland (shoulder) will likely be out again for Cleveland, which presents someone like Cedi Osman with more opportunities. He’s started each of the last two games for the Cavaliers, resulting in 12 rebounds and 14 assists during that span. Both the minutes and peripherals have been up for Osman in Garland’s absence, who leads the Cavs in potential assists per game (10.3) and assist points created per game (16.8). With Garland off the floor this season, Osman is averaging right around a fantasy point per minute. And over the last two games, Osman is averaging 10.5 assist points created per game, up from his 6.3 mark for the full season.
Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets
DEN -3.5; total: 225.5
Luka Doncic finally put together a monster triple-double, going for 33 points, 16 rebounds and 11 assists against the Rockets. As expected, Doncic is dominating the advanced metrics for the Mavericks, sporting a 38.6% usage rate, 28% rebounding rate and 22% assist rate, while averaging 1.51 fantasy points per minute. He’s still underpriced and has a massive ceiling, especially against a Denver defense that has been very bad so far this season, ranking inside the bottom-three in defensive efficiency. Denver is also surrendering the third-most isolation points per game (8.0), as well as the seventh-highest field goal percentage off the play type (44.2%). That bodes extremely well for Doncic, who is second in the NBA in isolation points per game (5.2), while his 23.9% isolation frequency rate is third in basketball behind James Harden and John Wall.
The rest of the Mavericks aren’t too appealing. Josh Richardson is playing solid minutes and is just $5,000 on DraftKings but really lacks the upside. Dallas did start Maxi Kleber in their last game, though he only played 18 minutes due to foul trouble. If he is in the starting lineup again, he becomes a strong value play, especially when you consider that he correlates well with Luka. However, the team also started Willie Cauley-Stein, who was great in 24 minutes, scoring just over 30 fantasy points. Keep an eye on the starting five from the Mavericks but both could be solid value centers on this slate.
For the Nuggets, I really only love Nikola Jokic, who is just smashing every single night right now. He still leads the NBA in touches per game (106.6) and has recorded a triple-double in four-of-seven games so far this season. The return of Michael Porter takes me off players like Will Barton and even Jamal Murray, who has seen a decent price bump but has been pretty inconsistent to start the season.
San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Lakers
LAL -8.5; total: 224
The Spurs got LaMarcus Aldridge back in their last game, and the veteran played 25 minutes. They returned to their usual starting lineup, which has Keldon Johnson at the power forward position. As a result, the rookie is averaging eight rebounds per game to go along with just over 15 points. Johnson is also averaging 12.9 rebounding chances per game on the year, tied for the most on the team with Dejounte Murray. He also torched this Lakers team to the tune of 26 points and 10 boards when these teams last met. Murray, meanwhile, is the floor play, as his minutes are secure with Derrick White out, while he contributes in every single category. DeMar DeRozan is nearly $8,000 on DraftKings after putting together some strong games in Aldridge’s absence and while he’s had some huge games against the Lakers in the past, I have some trepidation with him here. With Aldridge on the floor this season, DeRozan is only sporting a 19% usage rate and 14% rebounding rate.
As for the Lakers, both LeBron James and Anthony Davis are once again very strong plays, especially Davis at just $9,800. The Spurs are quietly inside the top-10 in pace of play so far this season, while they have been nothing to write home about on the defensive end. If Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is out once again, we’ll likely see Kyle Kuzma start and see very little usage, while Talen Horton-Tucker would likely see 22-25 minutes once again, which would be enough to warrant consideration at just $3,500. It is also a sneaky good spot for Dennis Schroder, as the Spurs rank dead last in our advanced DVP tool against dimers, while also ranking 25th against primary ball-handlers, which are both of Schroder’s archetypes.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Portland Trail Blazers
POR -10; total: 232
Feel free to roster both Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum here, as the Timberwolves defense doesn’t stand a chance against them. Minnesota is surrendering 1.06 points per possession to opposing ball handlers out of the pick and roll, the highest number in basketball to this point. Lillard, meanwhile, is averaging 13.1 points per game as the pick and roll ball-handler, good for the second-most in the NBA. On the other hand, it is also a smash spot for McCollum, who has shown way more upside this season than last. His shot volume has been great, attempting at least 17 shots in every game this season. McCollum is also sporting a 29.7% usage rate, just ahead of Lillard’s, while averaging a team-high 1.33 fantasy points per minute. Meanwhile, he is averaging 3.0 points per game off handoffs, good for the fifth-most in basketball. That sets him up nicely here against Minnesota, a defense that is surrendering 7.9 points per game off handoffs (fourth-most), as well as the fourth-highest frequency rate off the play type (6.5%).
Jusuf Nurkic finally got it going a bit last game, scoring 12 points while adding 11 rebounds and six assists in 28 minutes of work. The ceiling hasn’t quite been there consistently for Nurkic thus far, as Enes Kanter is averaging just over 20 minutes per game off the bench. However, Nurkic’s price has dropped, despite coming off a strong game, so now you really don’t need him to eclipse 30 minutes, especially in a favorable matchup against the Wolves.
It was only a matter of time before D'Angelo Russell had a huge game and we saw it the other night, as he went off for nearly 60 fantasy points. His usage rate was just over 30% in that game and with Karl-Anthony Towns off the floor this season, Russell’s usage rate is sporting a 30.4% usage rate, while averaging a strong 1.15 fantasy points per minute. His price has come up but that might keep people off of him, while this game also expects to feature plenty of scoring. And no one else in this new Minnesota starting five demands a ton of usage, though perhaps Juancho Hernangomez will if he continues to play well. He went for 28 points and eight rebounds the other night and will likely remain in the starting lineup. $4,400 on DraftKings is still a more-than-fair price tag.
